Identification of Stochastic Wiener Systems using Indirect Inference

We study identification of stochastic Wiener dynamic systems using so-called indirect inference. The main idea is to first fit an auxiliary model to the observed data and then in a second step, often by simulation, fit a more structured model to the estimated auxiliary model. This two-step procedure can be used when the direct maximum-likelihood estimate is difficult or intractable to compute. One such example is the identification of stochastic Wiener systems, i.e.,~linear dynamic systems with process noise where the output is measured using a non-linear sensor with additive measurement noise. It is in principle possible to evaluate the log-likelihood cost function using numerical integration, but the corresponding optimization problem can be quite intricate. This motivates studying consistent, but sub-optimal, identification methods for stochastic Wiener systems. We will consider indirect inference using the best linear approximation as an auxiliary model. We show that the key to obtain a reliable estimate is to use uncertainty weighting when fitting the stochastic Wiener model to the auxiliary model estimate. The main technical contribution of this paper is the corresponding asymptotic variance analysis. A numerical evaluation is presented based on a first-order finite impulse response system with a cubic non-linearity, for which certain illustrative analytic properties are derived.Comment: The 17th IFAC Symposium on System Identification, SYSID 2015, Beijing, China, October 19-21, 201

On-to-off-path gaze shift cancellations lead to gaze concentration in cognitively loaded car drivers: A simulator study exploring gaze patterns in relation to a cognitive task and the traffic environment

Appropriate visual behaviour is necessary for safe driving. Many previous studies have found that when performing non-visual cognitive tasks, drivers typically display an increased amount of on-path glances, along with a deteriorated visual scanning pattern towards potential hazards at locations outside their future travel path (off-path locations). This is often referred to as a gaze concentration effect. However, what has not been explored is more precisely how and when gaze concentration arises in relation to the cognitive task, and to what extent the timing of glances towards traffic-situation relevant off-path locations is affected. To investigate these specific topics, a driving simulator study was carried out. Car drivers’ visual behaviour during execution of a cognitive task (n-back) was studied during two traffic scenarios; one when driving through an intersection and one when passing a hidden exit. Aside from the expected gaze concentration effect, several novel findings that may explain this effect were observed. It was found that gaze shifts from an on-path to an off-path location were inhibited during increased cognitive load. However, gaze shifts in the other direction, that is, from an off-path to an on-path location, remained unaffected. This resulted in on-path glances increasing in duration, while off-path glances decreased in number. Furthermore, the inhibited off-path glances were typically not compensated for later. That is, off-path glances were cancelled, not delayed. This was the case both in relation to the cognitive task (near-term) and the traffic environment (far-term). There was thus a general reduction in the number of glances towards situationally relevant off-path locations, but the timing of the remaining glances was unaffected. These findings provide a deeper understanding of the mechanism behind gaze concentration and can contribute to both understanding and prediction of safety relevant effects of cognitive load in car drivers

Salivary cortisol differs with age and sex and shows inverse associations with WHR in Swedish women: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most studies on cortisol have focused on smaller, selected samples. We therefore aimed to sex-specifically study the diurnal cortisol pattern and explore its association with abdominal obesity in a large unselected population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2001–2004, 1811 men and women (30–75 years) were randomly selected from the Vara population, south-western Sweden (81% participation rate). Of these, 1671 subjects with full information on basal morning and evening salivary cortisol and anthropometric measurements were included in this cross-sectional study. Differences between groups were examined by general linear model and by logistic and linear regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Morning and Δ-cortisol (morning – evening cortisol) were significantly higher in women than men. In both genders older age was significantly associated with higher levels of all cortisol measures, however, most consistently with evening cortisol. In women only, age-adjusted means of WHR were significantly lower in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of morning cortisol (p = 0.036) and Δ-cortisol (p < 0.001), respectively. Furthermore, when comparing WHR above and below the mean, the age-adjusted OR in women for the lowest quartile of cortisol compared to the highest was 1.5 (1.0–2.2, p = 0.058) for morning cortisol and 1.9 (1.3–2.8) for Δ-cortisol. All findings for Δ-cortisol remained after adjustments for multiple covariates and were also seen in a linear regression analysis (p = 0.003).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In summary, our findings of generally higher cortisol levels in women than men of all ages are novel and the stronger results seen for Δ-cortisol as opposed to morning cortisol in the association with WHR emphasise the need of studying cortisol variation intra-individually. To our knowledge, the associations in this study have never before been investigated in such a large population sample of both men and women. Our results therefore offer important knowledge on the descriptive characteristics of cortisol in relation to age and gender, and on the impact that associations previously seen between cortisol and abdominal obesity in smaller, selected samples have on a population level.</p

Quantitative ultrasound tissue characterization in shoulder and thigh muscles – a new approach

BACKGROUND: The echogenicity patterns of ultrasound scans contain information of tissue composition in muscles. The aim was: (1) to develop a quantitative ultrasound image analysis to characterize tissue composition in terms of intensity and structure of the ultrasound images, and (2) to use the method for characterization of ultrasound images of the supraspinatus muscle, and the vastus lateralis muscle. METHODS: Computerized texture analyses employing first-order and higher-order grey-scale statistics were developed to objectively characterize ultrasound images of m. supraspinatus and m. vastus lateralis from 9 healthy participants. RESULTS: The mean grey-scale intensity was higher in the vastus lateralis muscle (p < 0.05) than in the supraspinatus muscle (average value of middle measuring site 51.4 compared to 35.0). Furthermore, the number of spatially connected and homogeneous regions (blobs) was higher in the vastus lateralis (p < 0.05) than in the supraspinatus (average for m. vastus lateralis: 0.092 mm(-2 )and for m. supraspinatus: 0.016 mm(-2)). CONCLUSION: The higher intensity and the higher number of blobs in the vastus lateralis muscle indicates that the thigh muscle contained more non-contractile components than the supraspinatus muscle, and that the muscle was coarser. The image analyses supplemented each other and gave a more complete description of the tissue composition in the muscle than the mean grey-scale value alone

ggstThe role of tendon microcirculation in Achilles and patellar tendinopathy

Tendinopathy is of distinct interest as it describes a painful tendon disease with local tenderness, swelling and pain associated with sonographic features such as hypoechogenic texture and diameter enlargement. Recent research elucidated microcirculatory changes in tendinopathy using laser Doppler flowmetry and spectrophotometry such as at the Achilles tendon, the patellar tendon as well as at the elbow and the wrist level. Tendon capillary blood flow is increased at the point of pain. Tendon oxygen saturation as well as tendon postcapillary venous filling pressures, determined non-invasively using combined Laser Doppler flowmetry and spectrophotometry, can quantify, in real-time, how tendon microcirculation changes over with pathology or in response to a given therapy. Tendon oxygen saturation can be increased by repetitive, intermittent short-term ice applications in Achilles tendons; this corresponds to 'ischemic preconditioning', a method used to train tissue to sustain ischemic damage. On the other hand, decreasing tendon oxygenation may reflect local acidosis and deteriorating tendon metabolism. Painful eccentric training, a common therapy for Achilles, patellar, supraspinatus and wrist tendinopathy decreases abnormal capillary tendon flow without compromising local tendon oxygenation. Combining an Achilles pneumatic wrap with eccentric training changes tendon microcirculation in a different way than does eccentric training alone; both approaches reduce pain in Achilles tendinopathy. The microcirculatory effects of measures such as extracorporeal shock wave therapy as well as topical nitroglycerine application are to be studied in tendinopathy as well as the critical question of dosage and maintenance. Interestingly it seems that injection therapy using color Doppler for targeting the area of neovascularisation yields to good clinical results with polidocanol sclerosing therapy, but also with a combination of epinephrine and lidocaine

Extensor tendon release in tennis elbow: results and prognostic factors in 80 elbows

Purpose The objectives of this study were to evaluate the results in the outpatient treatment of recalcitrant lateral epicondylitis with release of the common extensor origin according to Hohmann and to determine any prognostic factors. Methods Eighty tennis elbows in 77 patients with a characteristic history of activity-related pain at the lateral epicondyle interfering with the activities of daily living refractory to conservative care for at least 6 months and a confirmatory physical examination were included. Clinical outcome was evaluated using the QuickDASH score system. Data were collected before the operation and at the medians of 18 months (range 6–36 months; short term) and 4 years (range 3–6 years; medium term) postoperatively. Results The mean QuickDASH was improved both at the short- and the medium-term follow-ups and did not change significantly between the follow-ups. At the final followup, the QuickDASH was improved in 78 out of 80 elbows and 81% was rated as excellent or good (QuickDASH\40 points). We found a weak correlation between residual symptoms (a high QuickDASH score) at the final follow-up and high level of baseline symptoms (r = 0.388), acute occurrence of symptoms (r = 0.362), long duration of symptoms (r = 0.276), female gender (r = 0.269) and young age (r = 0.203), whereas occurrence in dominant arm, a work-related cause or strenuous work did not correlate significantly with the outcome. Conclusion Open lateral extensor release performed as outpatient surgery results in improved clinical outcome at both short- and medium-term follow-ups with few complications. High baseline disability, sudden occurrence of symptoms, long duration of symptoms, female gender and young age were found to be weak predictors of poor outcome

Multiplexing information flow through dynamic signalling systems

We consider how a signalling system can act as an information hub by multiplexing information arising from multiple signals. We formally define multiplexing, mathematically characterise which systems can multiplex and how well they can do it. While the results of this paper are theoretical, to motivate the idea of multiplexing, we provide experimental evidence that tentatively suggests that the NF-κB transcription factor can multiplex information about changes in multiple signals. We believe that our theoretical results may resolve the apparent paradox of how a system like NF-κB that regulates cell fate and inflammatory signalling in response to diverse stimuli can appear to have the low information carrying capacity suggested by recent studies on scalar signals. In carrying out our study, we introduce new methods for the analysis of large, nonlinear stochastic dynamic models, and develop computational algorithms that facilitate the calculation of fundamental constructs of information theory such as Kullback–Leibler divergences and sensitivity matrices, and link these methods to a new theory about multiplexing information. We show that many current models such as those of the NF-κB system cannot multiplex effectively and provide models that overcome this limitation using post-transcriptional modifications