An agent-based model for energy service companies

The residential housing sector is a major consumer of energy accounting for approximately one third of carbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Achieving a sustainable, low-carbon infrastructure necessitates a reduced and more efficient use of domestic energy supplies. Energy service companies offer an alternative to traditional providers, which supply a single utility product to satisfy the unconstrained demand of end users, and have been identified as a potentially important actor in sustainable future economies. An agent-based model is developed to examine the potential of energy service companies to contribute to the large scale upgrading of household energy efficiency, which would ultimately lead to a more sustainable and secure energy infrastructure. The migration of households towards energy service companies is described by an attractiveness array, through which potential customers can evaluate the future benefits, in terms of household energy costs, of changing provider. It is shown that self-financing is a limiting factor to the widespread upgrading of residential energy efficiency. Greater reductions in household energy costs could be achieved by committing to longer term contracts, allowing upgrade costs to be distributed over greater time intervals. A steadily increasing cost of future energy usage lends an element of stability to the market, with energy service companies displaying the ability to retain customers on contract expiration. The model highlights how a greater focus on the provision of energy services, as opposed to consumable products, presents a viable approach to reducing future energy costs and usage

Multi-utility service companies: a complex systems model of increasing resource efficiency

Domestic households account for a significant portion of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Gains in energy and resource efficiency are undermined by the continuing rise in consumption. A multiutility service company (MUSCo) could enable households to make efficiency improvements through energy technologies and demand management, thus reducing overall consumption. We present a system dynamics model for the domestic energy demand and supply system in the United Kingdom, in which MUSCos compete with traditional utility providers. The market transition toward a leasing contracted service is examined and various potential business models explored

Steering supply chains from a complex systems perspective

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to systematically review the properties of supply chains demonstrating that they are complex systems, and that the management of supply chains is best achieved by steering rather than controlling these systems toward desired outcomes. Design/methodology/approach – The research study was designed as both exploratory and explanatory. Data were collected from secondary sources using a comprehensive literature review process. In parallel with data collection, data were analyzed and synthesized. Findings – The main finding is the introduction of an inductive framework for steering supply chains from a complex systems perspective by explaining why supply chains have properties of complex systems and how to deal with their complexity while steering them toward desired outcomes. Complexity properties are summarized in four inter-dependent categories: Structural, Dynamic, Behavioral and Decision making, which together enable the assessment of supply chains as complex systems. Furthermore, five mechanisms emerged for dealing with the complexity of supply chains: classification, modeling, measurement, relational analysis and handling. Originality/value – Recognizing that supply chains are complex systems allows for a better grasp of the effect of positive feedback on change and transformation, and also interactions leading to dynamic equilibria, nonlinearity and the role of inter-organizational learning, as well as emerging capabilities, and existing tradeoffs and paradoxical tensions in decision-making. It recognizes changing dynamics and the co-evolution of supply chain phenomena in different scales and contextsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

As pharma is to people, so infrastructure is to cities

The pharmaceutical industry is a profit-making sector of the healthcare system and has grown into a self-regulating complex system over the years. Starting from the pre-clinical to clinical development of drugs to the authorisation and marketing thereof, a typical multi-national pharmaceutical company of today operates in complex ways which partly emerge from the multiple interactions within and without the company. The complexity is further given by the unpredictability of the outcomes: merely 1 out of 10 drugs that are in development are likely to be approved. The plethora of regulations by authorities such as the European Medicines Agency pose a negative feedback on this complex system which is further aggravated by the reimbursement landscape of each country, taking a toll on the innovative side of this privately funded sector.
 By analogy, infrastructure operations with distinct supply systems delivering specific critical products and services, pharmaceutical companies have become the exclusive suppliers of drugs within the healthcare system. Increasingly traditional public sector infrastructure provision has been privatised, as has national health services drug development, resulting in high levels of regulation in each, constraining innovation and profitability, hall-marks of the private sector. Just as infrastructure delivers the life-blood of cities, pharma delivers medicines for the health of individuals: both aim for public health and societal good. Failures in infrastructure delivery, such as unaffordability by the poor, match with pharma failures to provide equitably to all individuals: the poor cannot afford the best drugs. The urban sprawl in cities and the rise of informal settlements without sufficient infrastructure, can be observed in health care by the rise in use of alternative and unreliable medications by sections of the population who are excluded from pharma penetration.
 Our work studies such analogies between infrastructure and pharmaceutical companies in the hope of a better understanding of the operations of and connections with each other and inspirations about finding solutions from these two similar, yet distinct complex systems

Agent based modeling of energy networks

Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed

Machine-Learning-Based Health Monitoring and Leakage Management of Water Distribution Systems

The reduction of pipe leakage is one of the top priorities for water companies, with many investing in greater sensor coverage to improve the forecasting of flow and detection of leaks. The majority of research on this topic is focused on leakage detection through the analysis of sensor data from district metered areas (DMAs), with the aim of identifying bursts after occurrence. This study is a step towards development of ‘self-healing’ water infrastructure systems. In particular, the concepts of machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) are applied to the forecasting of water flow in DMAs at various temporal scales, thereby aiding in the health monitoring of water distribution systems.  This study uses a dataset for ~2500 DMAs in Yorkshire, containing flow time-series recorded at every 15-minute interval over the period of a year. Firstly, the method of isolation forests is used to identify anomalies in the dataset which are verified as corresponding to entries in water mains repair log, indicating the occurrence of bursts. Going beyond leakage detection, this research proposes a hybrid framework of DL models - such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and transformer neural networks) - and state-space ML algorithms - such as Kalman filter and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The ML algorithms are trained to forecast the stationary component of the expected flow patterns in real-time, which is then combined (through Bayesian updating) with the non-stationary component obtained from DL models. As well as providing expected day-to-day flow demands, this framework aims to issue sufficient early warning for any upcoming anomalous flow or possible leakages. For a given forecast period, the framework can be used to compute the probability of flow exceeding a pre-defined threshold, thus allowing decisions to be made regarding any necessary interventions. This can inform targeted repair strategies which best utilise resources to minimise leakage and disruptions by addressing both detected and predicted burst events

Leakage Detection Framework using Domain-Informed Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines to Augment Self-Healing in Water Distribution Networks

The reduction of water leakage is essential for ensuring sustainable and resilient water supply systems. Despite recent investments in sensing technologies, pipe leakage remains a significant challenge for the water sector, particularly in developed nations like the UK, which suffer from aging water infrastructure. Conventional models and analytical methods for detecting pipe leakage often face reliability issues and are generally limited to detecting leaks during nighttime hours. Moreover, leakages are frequently detected by the customers rather than the water companies. To achieve substantial reductions in leakage and enhance public confidence in water supply and management, adopting an intelligent detection method is crucial. Such a method should effectively leverage existing sensor data for reliable leakage identification across the network. This not only helps in minimizing water loss and the associated energy costs of water treatment but also aids in steering the water sector towards a more sustainable and resilient future. As a step towards ‘self-healing’ water infrastructure systems, this study presents a novel framework for rapidly identifying potential leakages at the district meter area (DMA) level. The framework involves training a domain-informed variational autoencoder (VAE) for real-time dimensionality reduction of water flow time series data and developing a two-dimensional surrogate latent variable (LV) mapping which sufficiently and efficiently captures the distinct characteristics of leakage and regular (non-leakage) flow. The domain-informed training employs a novel loss function that ensures a distinct but regulated LV space for the two classes of flow groupings (i.e., leakage and non-leakage). Subsquently, a binary SVM classifier is used to provide a hyperplane for separating the two classes of LVs corresponding to the flow groupings. Hence, the proposed framework can be efficiently utilised to classify the incoming flow as leakage or non-leakage based on the encoded surrogates LVs of the flow time series using the trained VAE encoder. The framework is trained and tested on a dataset of over 2000 DMAs in North Yorkshire, UK, containing water flow time series recorded at 15-minute intervals over one year. The framework performs exceptionally well for both regular and leakage water flow groupings with a classification accuracy of over 98 % on the unobserved test dataset

Leakage Detection Framework using Domain-Informed Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines to Augment Self-Healing in Water Distribution Networks

The reduction of water leakage is essential for ensuring sustainable and resilient water supply systems. Despite recent investments in sensing technologies, pipe leakage remains a significant challenge for the water sector, particularly in developed nations like the UK, which suffer from aging water infrastructure. Conventional models and analytical methods for detecting pipe leakage often face reliability issues and are generally limited to detecting leaks during nighttime hours. Moreover, leakages are frequently detected by the customers rather than the water companies. To achieve substantial reductions in leakage and enhance public confidence in water supply and management, adopting an intelligent detection method is crucial. Such a method should effectively leverage existing sensor data for reliable leakage identification across the network. This not only helps in minimizing water loss and the associated energy costs of water treatment but also aids in steering the water sector towards a more sustainable and resilient future. As a step towards ‘self-healing’ water infrastructure systems, this study presents a novel framework for rapidly identifying potential leakages at the district meter area (DMA) level. The framework involves training a domain-informed variational autoencoder (VAE) for real-time dimensionality reduction of water flow time series data and developing a two-dimensional surrogate latent variable (LV) mapping which sufficiently and efficiently captures the distinct characteristics of leakage and regular (non-leakage) flow. The domain-informed training employs a novel loss function that ensures a distinct but regulated LV space for the two classes of flow groupings (i.e., leakage and non-leakage). Subsquently, a binary SVM classifier is used to provide a hyperplane for separating the two classes of LVs corresponding to the flow groupings. Hence, the proposed framework can be efficiently utilised to classify the incoming flow as leakage or non-leakage based on the encoded surrogates LVs of the flow time series using the trained VAE encoder. The framework is trained and tested on a dataset of over 2000 DMAs in North Yorkshire, UK, containing water flow time series recorded at 15-minute intervals over one year. The framework performs exceptionally well for both regular and leakage water flow groupings with a classification accuracy of over 98 % on the unobserved test datase

Machine-Learning-Based Health Monitoring and Leakage Management of Water Distribution Systems

The reduction of pipe leakage is one of the top priorities for water companies, with many investing in greater sensor coverage to improve the forecasting of flow and detection of leaks. The majority of research on this topic is focused on leakage detection through the analysis of sensor data from district metered areas (DMAs), with the aim of identifying bursts after occurrence. This study is a step towards development of ‘self-healing’ water infrastructure systems. In particular, the concepts of machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) are applied to the forecasting of water flow in DMAs at various temporal scales, thereby aiding in the health monitoring of water distribution systems.  This study uses a dataset for ~2500 DMAs in Yorkshire, containing flow time-series recorded at every 15-minute interval over the period of a year. Firstly, the method of isolation forests is used to identify anomalies in the dataset which are verified as corresponding to entries in water mains repair log, indicating the occurrence of bursts. Going beyond leakage detection, this research proposes a hybrid framework of DL models - such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and transformer neural networks) - and state-space ML algorithms - such as Kalman filter and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The ML algorithms are trained to forecast the stationary component of the expected flow patterns in real-time, which is then combined (through Bayesian updating) with the non-stationary component obtained from DL models. As well as providing expected day-to-day flow demands, this framework aims to issue sufficient early warning for any upcoming anomalous flow or possible leakages. For a given forecast period, the framework can be used to compute the probability of flow exceeding a pre-defined threshold, thus allowing decisions to be made regarding any necessary interventions. This can inform targeted repair strategies which best utilise resources to minimise leakage and disruptions by addressing both detected and predicted burst events