Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

New Era of Air Quality Monitoring from Space: Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS)

GEMS will monitor air quality over Asia at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from GEO for the first time, providing column measurements of aerosol, ozone and their precursors (nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and formaldehyde). Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled for launch in late 2019 - early 2020 to monitor Air Quality (AQ) at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from a Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) for the first time. With the development of UV-visible spectrometers at sub-nm spectral resolution and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, estimates of the column amounts of atmospheric pollutants (O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, CHOCHO and aerosols) can be obtained. To date, all the UV-visible satellite missions monitoring air quality have been in Low Earth orbit (LEO), allowing one to two observations per day. With UV-visible instruments on GEO platforms, the diurnal variations of these pollutants can now be determined. Details of the GEMS mission are presented, including instrumentation, scientific algorithms, predicted performance, and applications for air quality forecasts through data assimilation. GEMS will be onboard the GEO-KOMPSAT-2 satellite series, which also hosts the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI)-2. These three instruments will provide synergistic science products to better understand air quality, meteorology, the long-range transport of air pollutants, emission source distributions, and chemical processes. Faster sampling rates at higher spatial resolution will increase the probability of finding cloud-free pixels, leading to more observations of aerosols and trace gases than is possible from LEO. GEMS will be joined by NASA&apos;s TEMPO and ESA&apos;s Sentinel-4 to form a GEO AQ satellite constellation in early 2020s, coordinated by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)

Ten-year all-cause mortality and its association with vision among Indigenous Australians within Central Australia: the Central Australian Ocular Health Study.

No studies to date have explored the association of vision with mortality in Indigenous Australians. We aimed to determine the 10-year all-cause mortality and its associations among Indigenous Australians living in Central Australia. Prospective observational cohort study. A total of 1257 (93.0%) of 1347 patients from The Central Australian Ocular Health Study, over the age of 40?years, were available for follow-up during a 10-year period. All-cause mortality and its associations with visual acuity, age and gender were analysed. All-cause mortality. All-cause mortality was 29.3% at the end of 10?years. Mortality increased as age of recruitment increased: 14.2% (40-49?years), 22.6% (50-59 years), 50.3% (60?years or older) (??=?59.15; P?<?0.00001). Gender was not associated with mortality as an unadjusted variable, but after adjustment with age and visual acuity, women were 17.0% less likely to die (t?=?2.09; P?=?0.037). Reduced visual acuity was associated with increased mortality rate (5% increased mortality per one line of reduced visual acuity; t?=?4.74; P?<?0.0001) after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes and hypertension. The 10-year all-cause mortality rate of Indigenous Australians over the age of 40?years and living in remote communities of Central Australia was 29.3%. This is more than double that of the Australian population as a whole. Mortality was significantly associated with visual acuity at recruitment. Further work designed to better understand this association is warranted and may help to reduce this disparity in the future

Genetic variants in sex hormone pathways and the risk of type 2 diabetes among African American, Hispanic American, and European American postmenopausal women in the US.

BACKGROUND: Sex hormones are implicated in the development of diabetes. However, whether genetic variations in sex hormone pathways (SHPs) contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains to be determined. This study investigated associations between genetic variations in all candidate genes in SHPs and T2DM risk among a cohort of women participating in the Womens Health Initiative (WHI). METHODS: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within 30 kb upstream and downstream of SHP genes were comprehensively examined in 8180 African American, 3498 Hispanic American, and 3147 European American women in the WHI. In addition, whether significant SNPs would be replicated in independent populations was examined. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, region, and ancestry estimates and correcting for multiple testing, seven SNPs were significantly associated with the risk of T2DM among Hispanic American women were identified in the progesterone receptor (PGR) gene, with rs948516 showing the greatest significance (odds ratio 0.67; 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.78; P = 8.8 × 10-7 ; false discovery rate, Q = 7.8 × 10-4 ). These findings were not replicated in other ethnic groups in the WHI or in sex-combined analyses in replication studies. CONCLUSION: Significant signals were identified implicating the PGR gene in T2DM development in Hispanic American women in the WHI, which are consistent with genome-wide association studies findings linking PGR to glucose homeostasis. Nevertheless, the PGR SNPs-T2DM association was not statistically significant in other ethnic populations. Further studies, especially sex-specific analyses, are needed to confirm the findings and clarify the role of SHPs in T2DM

Identifying Genetic Biomarkers Predicting Response to Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Injections in Diabetic Macular Edema

Intraocular anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapies are the front-line treatment for diabetic macular edema (DME); however, treatment response varies widely. This study aimed to identify genetic determinants associated with anti-VEGF treatment response in DME. We performed a genome-wide association study on 220 Australian patients with DME treated with anti-VEGF therapy, genotyped on the Illumina Global Screening Array, and imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium panel. The primary outcome measures were changes in central macular thickness (CMT in microns) and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA in ETDRS letters) after 12 months. Association between single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes and DME outcomes were evaluated by linear regression, adjusting for the first three principal components, age, baseline CMT/BCVA, duration of diabetic retinopathy, and HbA1c. Two loci reached genome-wide significance (p −8) for association with increased CMT: a single SNP on chromosome 6 near CASC15 (rs78466540, p = 1.16 × 10−9) and a locus on chromosome 12 near RP11-116D17.1 (top SNP rs11614480, p = 2.69 × 10−8). Four loci were significantly associated with reduction in BCVA: two loci on chromosome 11, downstream of NTM (top SNP rs148980760, p = 5.30 × 10−9) and intronic in RP11-744N12.3 (top SNP rs57801753, p = 1.71 × 10−8); one near PGAM1P1 on chromosome 5 (rs187876551, p = 1.52 × 10−8); and one near TBC1D32 on chromosome 6 (rs118074968, p = 4.94 × 10−8). In silico investigations of each locus identified multiple expression quantitative trait loci and potentially relevant candidate genes warranting further analysis. Thus, we identified multiple genetic loci predicting treatment outcomes for anti-VEGF therapies in DME. This work may potentially lead to managing DME using personalized treatment approaches

Predictive factors for treatment outcomes with intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections in diabetic macular edema in clinical practice

Abstract Background Intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) injections are the standard of care for diabetic macular edema (DME), a common complication of diabetes. This study aimed to identify factors influencing DME intravitreal anti-VEGF treatment outcomes in real-world practice. Methods This was a multi-center retrospective observational study using medical chart review of participants receiving anti-VEGF injections for DME (N = 248). Demographic and clinical variables were assessed for association with best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and central macular thickness (CMT) outcomes using regression models. Results There was a significant improvement in BCVA (p < 0.001) and CMT (p < 0.001) after 12 months of treatment, although 21% of participants had decreased BCVA, and 41% had a < 10% CMT reduction at 12 months. Higher baseline BCVA (p = 0.022, OR=-0.024, 95% CI=-0.046,-0.004) and longer duration of diabetic retinopathy (p = 0.048, OR=-0.064, 95% CI=-0.129,-0.001) were negative predictors for BCVA response, whereas Aflibercept treatment (p = 0.017, OR = 1.107, 95% CI = 0.220,2.051) compared with other drugs and a positive “early functional response” (p < 0.001, OR=-1.393, 95% CI=-1.946,-0.857) were positive predictors. A higher baseline CMT (p < 0.001, OR = 0.019, 95% CI = 0.012,0.0261) and an “early anatomical response”, (p < 0.001, OR=-1.677, 95% CI=-2.456, -0.943) were predictors for greater reduction in CMT. Overall, the variables could predict only 23% of BCVA and 52% of CMT response. Conclusions The study shows a significant proportion of DME patients do not respond to anti-VEGF therapy and identifies several clinical predictors for treatment outcomes. Trial registration The study was approved through the Human Research Ethics Committee, University of Tasmania (approval number H0012902), and the Southern Adelaide Clinical Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number 86 − 067)

Effect of Prophylactic Negative Pressure Wound Therapy vs Standard Wound Dressing on Surgical-Site Infection in Obese Women After Cesarean Delivery

Importance: Obesity increases the risk of both cesarean delivery and surgical-site infection. Despite widespread use, it is unclear whether prophylactic negative pressure wound therapy reduces surgical-site infection after cesarean delivery in obese women. Objective: To evaluate whether prophylactic negative pressure wound therapy, initiated immediately after cesarean delivery, lowers the risk of surgical-site infections compared with standard wound dressing in obese women. Design, setting, and participants: Multicenter randomized trial conducted from February 8, 2017, through November 13, 2019, at 4 academic and 2 community hospitals across the United States. Obese women undergoing planned or unplanned cesarean delivery were eligible. The study was terminated after 1624 of 2850 participants were recruited when a planned interim analysis showed increased adverse events in the negative pressure group and futility for the primary outcome. Final follow-up was December 18, 2019. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to either undergo prophylactic negative pressure wound therapy, with application of the negative pressure device immediately after repair of the surgical incision (n = 816), or receive standard wound dressing (n = 808). Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was superficial or deep surgical-site infection according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definitions. Secondary outcomes included other wound complications, composite of surgical-site infections and other wound complications, and adverse skin reactions. Results: Of the 1624 women randomized (mean age, 30.4 years, mean body mass index, 39.5), 1608 (99%) completed the study: 806 in the negative pressure group (median duration of negative pressure, 4 days) and 802 in the standard dressing group. Superficial or deep surgical-site infection was diagnosed in 29 participants (3.6%) in the negative pressure group and 27 (3.4%) in the standard dressing group (difference, 0.36%; 95% CI, -1.46% to 2.19%, P = .70). Of 30 prespecified secondary end points, 25 showed no significant differences, including other wound complications (2.6% vs 3.1%; difference, -0.53%; 95% CI, -1.93% to 0.88%; P = .46) and composite of surgical-site infections and other wound complications (6.5% vs 6.7%; difference, -0.27%; 95% CI, -2.71% to 2.25%; P = .83). Adverse skin reactions were significantly more frequent in the negative pressure group (7.0% vs 0.6%; difference, 6.95%; 95% CI, 1.86% to 12.03%; P < .001). Conclusions and relevance: Among obese women undergoing cesarean delivery, prophylactic negative pressure wound therapy, compared with standard wound dressing, did not significantly reduce the risk of surgical-site infection. These findings do not support routine use of prophylactic negative pressure wound therapy in obese women after cesarean delivery

An instrumental variable approach finds no associated harm or benefit with early dialysis initiation in the United States

The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis initiation has been rising. Observational studies suggest harm, but may be confounded by unmeasured factors. As instrumental variable methods may be less biased, we performed a retrospective cohort study of 310,932 patients who started dialysis between 2006 and 2008 and were registered in the United States Renal Data System in order to describe geographic variation in eGFR at dialysis initiation and determine its association with mortality. Patients were grouped into 804 health service areas (HSAs) by zip code. Individual eGFR at dialysis initiation averaged 10.8 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) but varied geographically. Only 11% of the variation in mean HSA-level eGFR at dialysis initiation was accounted for by patient characteristics. We calculated demographic-adjusted mean eGFR at dialysis initiation in the HSAs using the 2006 and 2007 incident cohort as our instrument and estimated the association between individual eGFR at dialysis initiation and mortality in the 2008 incident cohort using the two-stage residual inclusion method. Among 89,547 patients starting dialysis in 2008 with eGFR 5-20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), eGFR at initiation was not associated with mortality over a median of 15.5 months (hazard ratio, 1.025 per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) for eGFR 5-14 ml/min per 1.73 m(2); and 0.973 per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) for eGFR 14-20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)). Thus, there was no associated harm or benefit with early dialysis initiation in the United State