Quantifying the risk of multiple myeloma from symptoms reported in primary care patients: a large case-control study using electronic records

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Royal College of General Practitioners via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Patients with myeloma experience the longest diagnostic delays compared with patients with other cancers in the UK; 37% are diagnosed through emergency presentations. AIM: To identify and quantify the risk of myeloma from specific clinical features reported by primary care patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Matched case-control study using General Practice Research Database primary care electronic records. METHOD: Putative clinical features of myeloma were identified and analysed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for the consulting population. RESULTS: A total of 2703 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with myeloma between 2000 and 2009, and 12 157 age, sex, and general practice-matched controls were identified. Sixteen features were independently associated with myeloma: hypercalcaemia, odds ratio 11.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.1 to 18), cytopenia 5.4 (95% CI = 4.6 to 6.4), raised inflammatory markers 4.9 (95% CI = 4.2 to 5.8), fracture 3.1 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.2), raised mean corpuscular volume 3.1 (95% CI = 2.4 to 4.1), weight loss 3.0 (95% CI = 2.0 to 4.5), nosebleeds 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9 to 4.7), rib pain 2.5 (95% CI = 1.5 to 4.4), back pain 2.2 (95% CI = 2.0 to 2.4), other bone pain 2.1 (95% CI = 1.4 to 3.1), raised creatinine 1.8 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.2), chest pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.4 to 1.8), joint pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.2 to 2.2), nausea 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1 to 2.1), chest infection 1.4 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.6), and shortness of breath 1.3 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.5). Individual symptom PPVs were generally 10% for some symptoms when combined with leucopenia or hypercalcaemia. CONCLUSION: Individual symptoms of myeloma in primary care are generally low risk, probably explaining diagnostic delays. Once simple primary care blood tests are taken, risk estimates change. Hypercalcaemia and leucopenia are particularly important abnormalities, and coupled with symptoms, strongly suggest myeloma.This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Grant Reference Number RP-PG-0608- 10045). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Fiona M Walter is part-funded by a NIHR Clinician Scientist award. Richard D Neal is part funded by Public Health Wales and Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board

Psychosocial factors and early childhood caries among low-income African–American children in Detroit

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75540/1/j.1600-0528.2006.00352.x.pd

Integrating Positive and Clinical Psychology: Viewing Human Functioning as Continua from Positive to Negative Can Benefit Clinical Assessment, Interventions and Understandings of Resilience

In this review we argue in favour of further integration between the disciplines of positive and clinical psychology. We argue that most of the constructs studied by both positive and clinical psychology exist on continua ranging from positive to negative (e.g., gratitude to ingratitude, anxiety to calmness) and so it is meaningless to speak of one or other field studying the “positive” or the “negative”. However, we highlight historical and cultural factors which have led positive and clinical psychologies to focus on different constructs; thus the difference between the fields is more due to the constructs of study rather than their being inherently “positive” or “negative”. We argue that there is much benefit to clinical psychology of considering positive psychology constructs because; (a) constructs studied by positive psychology researchers can independently predict wellbeing when accounting for traditional clinical factors, both cross-sectionally and prospectively, (2) the constructs studied by positive psychologists can interact with risk factors to predict outcomes, thereby conferring resilience, (3) interventions that aim to increase movement towards the positive pole of well-being can be used encourage movement away from the negative pole, either in isolation or alongside traditional clinical interventions, and (4) research from positive psychology can support clinical psychology as it seeks to adapt therapies developed in Western nations to other cultures

Brief oral health promotion intervention among parents of young children to reduce early childhood dental decay

Background: Severe untreated dental decay affects a child’s growth, body weight, quality of life as well as cognitive development, and the effects extend beyond the child to the family, the community and the health care system. Early health behavioural factors, including dietary practices and eating patterns, can play a major role in the initiation and development of oral diseases, particularly dental caries. The parent/caregiver, usually the mother, has a critical role in the adoption of protective health care behaviours and parental feeding practices strongly influence children’s eating behaviours. This study will test if an early oral health promotion intervention through the use of brief motivational interviewing (MI) and anticipatory guidance (AG) approaches can reduce the incidence of early childhood dental decay and obesity. Methods: The study will be a randomised controlled study with parents and their new-born child/ren who are seen at 6–12 weeks of age by a child/community health nurse. Consenting parents will complete a questionnaire on oral health knowledge, behaviours, self-efficacy, oral health fatalism, parenting stress, prenatal and peri-natal health and socio-demographic factors at study commencement and at 12 and 36 months. Each child–parent pair will be allocated to an intervention or a standard care group, using a computer-generated random blocks. The standard group will be managed through the standard early oral health screening program; “lift the lip”. The intervention group will be provided with tailored oral health counselling by oral health consultants trained in MI and AG. Participating children will be examined at 24, and 36 months for the occurrence of dental decay and have their height and weight recorded. Dietary information obtained from a food frequency chart will be used to determine food and dietary patterns. Data analysis will use intention to treat and per protocol analysis and will use tests of independent proportions and means. Multivariate statistical tests will also be used to take account of socio-economic and demographic factors in addition to parental knowledge, behaviour, self-efficacy, and parent/child stress. Discussion: The study will test the effects of an oral health promotion intervention to affect oral health and general health and have the potential to demonstrate the "common risk factor" approach to health promotion.Peter Arrow, Joseph Raheb and Margaret Mille

African-American health: the role of the social environment

Cooper and colleagues have noted that the forces affecting the health of minority populations are the same forces, on a less intensive scale, that affect the health of the overall population. 90 That is, we can view the health of the African-American population as the visible tip of an iceberg. This tip of the iceberg is a function of the average health of the entire population. Thus, an effective strategy must address not only the tip, but also should attack the entire iceberg and reduce the risk that it is creating throughout the population. Similarly, Wallace and Wallace have shown how the mechanisms of hierarchical diffusion, spatial contagion, and network diffusion lead to the spread of health and social problems initially confined in inner cities to suburban areas and smaller cities. 91 That is, because of the economic links typing various communities together, there are mechanisms that will ensure the diffusion of disease and disorder from one area to another. If unaddressed, the problems of stigmatized and marginalized urban populations will have adverse impacts on the health, well-being, and quality of life of the more affluent. Thus, investments that will improve the social conditions of a marginalized population can have long-term positive health and social consequences for the entire society.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45781/1/11524_2006_Article_BF02345099.pd

The impact of tidal stream turbines on large-scale sediment dynamics

a b s t r a c t Tidal stream turbines are exploited in regions of high tidal currents. Such energy extraction will alter the hydrodynamics of a tidal region, analogous to increasing the bed friction in the region of extraction. In addition, this study demonstrates that energy extracted with respect to tidal asymmetries due to interactions between quarter (M 4 ) and semi-diurnal (M 2 ) currents will have important implications for large-scale sediment dynamics. Model simulations show that energy extracted from regions of strong tidal asymmetry will have a much more pronounced effect on sediment dynamics than energy extracted from regions of tidal symmetry. The results show that energy extracted from regions of strong tidal asymmetry led to a 20% increase in the magnitude of bed level change averaged over the length of a large estuarine system, compared with energy extracted from regions of tidal symmetry. However, regardless of the location of a tidal stream farm within a tidal system, energy extraction reduces the overall magnitude of bed level change in comparison with non-extraction cases. This has practical application to many areas surrounding the UK, including the Irish Sea and the Bristol Channel, that exhibit strong tidal currents suitable for exploitation of the tidal stream resource, but where large variations in tidal asymmetry occur