Future changes and seasonal variability of the directional wave spectra in the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century

A state-of-the-art regional assessment of future directional wave spectra in the Mediterranean Sea and the projected changes with respect to hindcast is presented. A multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional ensemble of bias-adjusted wave climate projections in eleven locations of the Mediterranean are used for the assessment of future seasonal changes in the directional wave spectra under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. This analysis allows us to identify climate change effects on the spectral energy of the swell and wind-sea systems and their seasonal variability which cannot be captured with the standard integrated wave parameters, such as significant wave height and mean wave direction. The results show an overall robust decrease in the predominant wave systems, resulting in a likely decrease in the significant wave height that is in agreement with previous studies. However, the results depict a robust increase in other less energetic frequencies and directions leading to a projected behavioral change from unimodal to bimodal/multimodal wave climate in many locations which has strong repercussions on the vulnerability of coastal assets and ports operability

Storm characterization and simulation for damage evolution models of maritime structures

This paper presents a new approach to statistically characterize and simulate the wave climate under storm conditions. The methodology includes the joint selection of the parameters that identify storm events (significant wave height threshold, minimum storm duration and minimum interarrival time between consecutive storms) by means of hypothesis testing on the distribution functions of the number of storm events and the elapsing time between storms, providing an improved characterization of the parameters that define storm events. The main wave variables and their temporal dependence are characterized by non-stationary mixture distribution functions and a vector autoregressive model. This allows to adequately reproduce the random temporal evolution of storm events, crucial for the study of damage progression in maritime structures without the use of predefined geometries. The long-term time series of storm events and calm periods is obtained using copula functions which analyze the joint dependence of storm duration and interarrival time for separate climate intervals. The model is applied to hindcast data at a location of the Mediterranean sea close to the Granada coast in Spain to show its ability to reproduce wave storm conditions accounting for the time variability of the storminess. An example of application, using a large number of simulations and a damage progression model in a maritime structure, is presented

MarineTools.temporal: A Python package to simulate Earth and environmental time series

The assessment of the uncertainty about the evolution of complex processes usually requires different realizations consisting of multivariate temporal signals of environmental data. However, it is common to have only one observational set. MarineTools.temporal is an open-source Python package for the non-stationary parametric statistical analysis of vector random processes suitable for environmental and Earth modelling. It takes a single timeseries of observations and allows the simulation of many time series with the same probabilistic behavior. The software generalizes the use of piecewise and compound distributions with any number of arbitrary continuous distributions. The code contains, among others, multi-model negative log-likely functions, wrappednormal distributions, and generalized Fourier timeseries expansion. Its programming philosophy significantly improves the computing time and makes it compatible with future extensions of scipy.stats. We apply it to the analysis of freshwater river discharge, water currents, and the simulation of ensemble projections of sea waves, to show its capabilities

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models.This work was funded by the project AQUA-CLEW, which is part of ERA4CS (European Research Area for Climate Services), an ERANET (European Research Area Net-work) initiated by JPI Climate (Joint Programming Initiative) andfunded by Formas (Sweden); German Aerospace Center (DLR, Germany); Ministry of Education, Science and Research (BMBWF,Austria); Innovation Fund Denmark; Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation (MINECO, Spain); and French National Research Agency with co-funding by the European Commission (grant no. 69046). The contribution of Philippe Lucas-Picher was supported by the French National Research Agency (future investment programme no. ANR-18-MPGA-0005). Rafael Pimentel acknowledges funding by the Modality 5.2 of the Programa Propio 2018 of the University of Córdoba and the Juan de la Cierva Incorporación programme of the Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant no. IJC2018-038093-I). Rafael Pimentel and María J. Polo are members of DAUCO (Unit of Excellence reference no. CEX2019-000968-M), with financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the Spanish State Research Agency, through the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence and María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence in research and development (R&D)

Interaction of swell and sea waves with partially reflective structures for possible engineering applications

In this work, we investigate the interaction between the combination of wind-driven and regular waves and a chamber defined by a rigid wall and a thin vertical semi-submerged barrier. A series of laboratory experiments were performed with different values of incident wave height, wave period, and wind speed. The analysis focuses on the effect of the geometry of the system characterized in terms of its relative submergence d/h and relative width B/L. Results show that for the case of d/h = 0.58 a resonant effect takes place inside the chamber regardless of the wind speed. Wind-driven waves have a higher influence on the variation of the wave period of the waves seaward and leeward of the plate, as well as on the phase lag. Results show that the amplification or reduction of the wave energy inside the chamber is closely related to the wave period as compared to the 1st order natural period of the chamber

Future wind and wave energy resources and exploitability in the Mediterranean Sea by 2100

A state-of-the-art regional assessment of future wind and wave energy resource in the Mediterranean Sea and the projected changes with respect to hindcast is presented. A multi-model EURO-CORDEX ensemble of future wind field and wave climate conditions with a spatial resolution of 4810\u201312.5 km and 3\u20136 h temporal resolution in the Mediterranean Sea is used for the assessment of future changes wind power, wave energy and combined exploitability under the climate change scenario RCP8.5. The results allow to identify climate change impacts in wind and wave power potential and the projected changes in the locations in the Mediterranean basin that were considered suitable for joint exploitations in previous studies. The future ES-Index allows to assess the optimized temporal-availability of combined wind and wave resources in a changing climate. Results show a robust decrease in the ES-Index during fall and winter in regions previously identified as suitable for coupled systems which would reduce the overall energy extraction but also attenuate the seasonal fluctuation. In addition, the Alboran Sea presents increases in ES-Index emerging as a probable suitable area for coupled systems under RCP8.5

Wave modeling with unstructured mesh for hindcast, forecast and wave hazard applications in the Mediterranean Sea

A wave model based on an unstructured grid in the Mediterranean Sea is presented, which provides high-resolution in near-shore regions using the wave model WAVEWATCH III v6.07. The hindcast comprises hourly time series of integrated wave parameters and 2D directional spectra in selected locations, from January 1st 1979 until December 31st 2020, whereas a daily forecast simulation provides predictions for the following 5 days. The hindcast is validated against buoys and several satellite missions. Results show that the model provides a good performance for storm events and mean conditions in the Mediterranean Sea with normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) lower than 15% in 70% of the basin, spatial index of agreement (d1) above 0.6, and the model under/overestimations are below 35% compared with in-situ data. Next, a methodology for coastal risk assessment is developed, leveraging the detailed information provided by the model in shallow waters and relying on a Storm Power Index (SPI), Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) and Risk Index (RI). The methodology is applied to the coast of Liguria, Italy, as a region with a high social, economical and touristic value which has experienced catastrophic coastal flooding episodes in recent years. Results of risk assessment were presented for the storm event of October 2018, known to have caused severe damages in the Ligurian coastline. The results provide a SPI of 3 and 5 at the beginning and peak of the storm, respectively, leading to RI of 3–5 depending on the characteristics and socioeconomic importance of the coastal stretches. Therefore, it is concluded that the methodology estimates the risk in an efficient and adequate way for its implementation in an operational risk forecasting system