Predicting Outcomes in Investment Treaty Arbitration

Crafting appropriate dispute settlement processes is challenging for any conflict-management system, particularly for politically sensitive international economic law disputes. As the United States negotiates investment treaties with Asian and European countries, the terms of dispute settlement have become contentious. There is a vigorous debate about whether investment treaty arbitration (ITA) is an appropriate dispute settlement mechanism. While some sing the praises of ITA, others offer a spirited critique. Some critics claim that ITA is biased against states, while others suggest ITA is predictable but unfair due to factors like arbitrator identity or venue. Using data from 159 final cases derived from 272 publicly available ITA awards, this Article examines outcomes of ITA cases to explore those concerns. Key descriptive findings demonstrate that states reliably won a greater proportion of cases than investors; and for the subset of cases investors won, the mean award was US$45.6 million with mean investor success rate of 35%. State success rates were roughly similar to respondent-favorable or state-favorable results in whistleblowing, qui tam, and medical-malpractice litigation in U.S. courts. The Article then explores whether ITA outcomes varied depending upon investor identity, state identity, the presence of repeat-player counsel, arbitrator-related, or venue variables. Models using case-based variables always predicted outcomes whereas arbitrator-venue models did not. The results provide initial evidence that the most critical variables for predicting outcomes involved some form of investor identity and the experience of parties’ lawyers. For investor identity, the most robust predictor was whether investors were human beings, with cases brought by people exhibiting greater success than corporations; and when at least one named investor or corporate parent was ranked in the Financial Times 500, investors sometimes secured more favorable outcomes. Following Marc Galanter’s scholarship demonstrating that repeat-player lawyers are critical to litigation outcomes, attorney experience also affected ITA outcomes. Investors with experienced counsel were more likely to obtain a damage award against a state, whereas states retaining experienced counsel were only reliably associated with decreased levels of relative investor success. Although there was variation in outcomes, ultimately, the data did not support a conclusion that ITA was completely unpredictable; rather, the results called into question some critiques of ITA and did not prove that ITA is a wholly unacceptable form of dispute settlement. Instead, the results suggest the vital debate about ITA’s future would be well served by focusing on evidence-based insights and reliance on data rather than nonreplicable intuition

Study of the integration of wind tunnel and computational methods for aerodynamic configurations

A study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of using a low-order panel code to estimate wind tunnel wall corrections. The corrections were found by two computations. The first computation included the test model and the surrounding wind tunnel walls, while in the second computation the wind tunnel walls were removed. The difference between the force and moment coefficients obtained by comparing these two cases allowed the determination of the wall corrections. The technique was verified by matching the test-section, wall-pressure signature from a wind tunnel test with the signature predicted by the panel code. To prove the viability of the technique, two cases were considered. The first was a two-dimensional high-lift wing with a flap that was tested in the 7- by 10-foot wind tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The second was a 1/32-scale model of the F/A-18 aircraft which was tested in the low-speed wind tunnel at San Diego State University. The panel code used was PMARC (Panel Method Ames Research Center). Results of this study indicate that the proposed wind tunnel wall correction method is comparable to other methods and that it also inherently includes the corrections due to model blockage and wing lift

Identifying Student Discussion in Computer-Mediated Problem Solving Chat

The COMPS project employs computer chat for students working in small groups solving classroom problems. This summer’s project aims to build computer classifiers that could effectively “look over the shoulders” of the students while working, to approximately recognize whether the students are engaging in productive discussion. Research questions are: can we write machine classifiers that can recognize reasoning, agreement, and disagreement in student discussions? Can we achieve this using only a common English vocabulary? Several thousand lines of COMPS transcripts were manually annotated. A topic modelling program was used to determine 10 main topics which appeared in the transcripts and the words in those topics. A Linear Classifier and a Support Vector Machine Classifier used the topic model to predict the annotation of each line of dialogue. To address the common English vocabulary research question, an intersection of many transcripts from different sources was combined with Google word lists and modified to accommodate text-chat conventions. In the normal vocabulary, we found f1 scores of 0.7 and above for reasoning. Using only common vocabulary, the scores were slightly lower. The next step is to train our topic model on a combination of transcripts and apply it to other transcripts from different student discussions

The reform of october 1979: how it happened and why

This study offers a historical review of the monetary policy reform of October 6, 1979, and discusses the influences behind it and its significance. We lay out the record from the start of 1979 through the spring of 1980, relying almost exclusively upon contemporaneous sources, including the recently released transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings during 1979. We then present and discuss in detail the reasons for the FOMC's adoption of the reform and the communications challenge presented to the Committee during this period. Further, we examine whether the essential characteristics of the reform were consistent with monetarism, new, neo, or old-fashioned Keynesianism, nominal income targeting, and inflation targeting. The record suggests that the reform was adopted when the FOMC became convinced that its earlier gradualist strategy using finely tuned interest rate moves had proved inadequate for fighting inflation and reversing inflation expectations. The new plan had to break dramatically with established practice, allow for the possibility of substantial increases in short-term interest rates, yet be politically acceptable, and convince financial markets participants that it would be effective. The new operating procedures were also adopted for the pragmatic reason that they would likely succeed. JEL Klassifikation: E52, E58, E61, E65

Radiation environment for rendezvous and docking with nuclear rockets

Radiation environment data for the NERVA engine are provided which may be utilized in estimating radiation exposures associated with various space maneuvers. Spatial distributions of neutron and gamma tissue kerma rates produced during full thrust operation of the engine are presented. Final rendezvous with an orbiting space station would be achieved subsequent to full thrust operation during a period of 10 or more hours duration in which impulse is delivered by the propellant used for removal of decay heat. Consequently, post operation radiation levels are of prime importance in estimating space station exposures. Maps of gamma kerma rates around the engine are provided for decay times of 4 and 24 hours after a representative firing. Typical decay curves illustrating the dependence of post operation kerma rates on decay time and operating history are included. Examples of the kerma distributions around the engine which result from integration over specific exposure periods are shown

Support for Instructional Leadership: Supervision, Mentoring, and Professional Development for U.S. School Leaders - Findings from the American School Leader Panel

With school leadership second only to teaching among school-related influences on student learning, principals can play an important role in school success. But how do their districts promote their effectiveness, especially in improving teaching? Based on a survey of the American School Leader Panel, a representative sample of principals from across the United States, this report explores the prevalence and quality of three important on-the-job supports for school leaders: supervision, mentorship and professional development (as defined by at least a day focused on principals). The good news is that two-thirds of principals report receiving some support. The bad news is that more than two thirds (68 percent) report that they don't receive all three sources of help. Mentoring, for example, is typically available only to first- or second-year principals or those encountering difficulties on the job, and only a minority of principals report that their districts require mentoring, even for first-year (49 percent of respondents) or struggling principals (21 percent). Also, the prevalence of support a principal receives may depend on the size of his or her school district. Both mentoring and professional development are more readily available in larger and medium-sized districts than smaller ones. The value principals place on the support they receive is linked to whether the support emphasizes the key aspect of principals' job—improving teachers' instruction. For example, all of the principals (100 percent) who reported that their mentors focused on instruction to a great extent also said that they prized the mentoring. That compares with a minority (40 percent) of principals who said their mentors devoted little to no time to instruction

Coupling mechanism of gain-guided integrated semiconductor laser arrays

It is shown that a gain-guided laser array couples via propagating fields rather than the evanescent mode coupling typically responsible for directional coupling in passive (directional couplers) and active (laser array) devices. We show that these phase-locked modes exhibit an interference pattern, in the junction plane, which arises from the curvature of the phase fronts of optical fields of the interacting lasers. The experimental results are interpreted with the aid of a simple theoretical model, and the effect of the observed mode pattern on the coupling of gain-guided lasers is discussed

Chirped arrays of diode lasers for supermode control

We propose nonuniform structures of phase-locked diode lasers, which make it possible to discriminate efficiently against all the higher order array supermodes (lateral modes). In these nonuniform arrays, the effective mode index in each channel varies across the array. Consequently, the envelopes of the various supermodes, including the highest order one, differ significantly from each other. Thus, by proper tailoring of the gain distribution across the array, one can conveniently select the fundamental supermode. Such fundamental supermode oscillation is essential in order to obtain single lobe, diffraction limited beams and minimal spectral spread from phase-locked laser arrays