Effects of higher required rates of return on the tax take in an oil province

For different reasons the oil companies might apply higher required rates of return than they did some years ago, and this has consequences for investments and tax revenue in oil provinces. By applying various required rates of return as well as various oil prices, this study derives future Norwegian tax revenue during 2018–2050 by using a partial equilibrium model for the global oil market. An important contribution is a detailed modelling of the supply side including the complete petroleum tax system. The model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production. Both investment in new reserves and production are profit driven. With rising required rates of return fewer of the high cost reserves become profitable to develop and investments decline. Intuitively one would think that lower activity and investments will lead to lower tax income for the government. However, because the government in practice carries a large fraction of the investments because of favourable possibilities for deductions of capital expenses for the oil companies, less investment in a period increases the tax base and the tax income. The initial effect is offset by a subsequent reduction in production which has a negative effect on future taxes. The result is that increasing required rates of return will lead to small variations in net present value of total tax revenue. Further, with lower oil prices, tax take increases significantly when required rates of return rise.publishedVersio

Restoring Myanmar’s mangrove forests and coastal communities’ socioeconomic stability with community based mangrove management

Mangrove forests have a significant capacity to provide ecosystem services. However, deforestation from land use changes has led to widespread degradation of these services and consequently jeopardizes coastal populations. Reforestation projects and attempts to develop sustainable management procedures are widely attempted worldwide. However, these projects often have sustainable rural livelihood improvements as a complementary goal. Integrated approaches such as Community Based Mangrove Management (CBMM) are emerging to bridge the gap between ecological restoration, community participation and livelihood improvements. CBMM has been applied in several projects in Myanmar with mostly positive impacts on sustainable rural livelihoods. This research shows that an active inclusion of local communities in planning and implementation of restoration projects could lead to a more sustainable management of the mangrove forests, and ensure livelihood improvements for coastal communities.M-A

The Resource Rent in Norwegian Aquaculture from 1984 to 2020 – Is the Rent Ripe for Taxation?

This study uses the National Accounts and the definitions of the UN System of Environmental-Economic Accounting to calculate the resource rents in Norwegian aquaculture in the period 1984-2020. If we know the remuneration of all input factors such as capital, labour, and inter-mediates except the remuneration of the ecosystem services used in aquaculture, the resource rent will appear as the difference between the value of output and the remuneration of all other input factors. This resource rent is a combination of a Ricardian rent and regulation rent. To as-sess the size of the rent, we perform various sensitivity analysis as introducing higher rates of return, applying alternative wage costs and by treating the stock of growing fish as real capital. A robust conclusion is that there has been a significant resource rent in aquaculture since 2000 and that it has risen markedly since 2012. In the period 2016-2020 it has averaged 18-20 billion NOK per year. Hence, both from an allocative justice and economic efficiency perspective, the Norwegian aquaculture industry seems ripe for resource rent taxation.publishedVersio

The Effects on Energy Markets of Achieving a 1.5 °C Scenario

Net zero emission scenarios are aligned with the criteria for the Paris Agreement to keep global warming below 1.5 °C. By soft-linking an energy model with a macroeconomic model, we create a similar pathway to the net zero emission scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to 2050 both of demand for fossil fuels and total CO2 emissions. Soft-linking entails that we insert endogenous variables from one model into the other model. We implement measures such as CO2 taxes, improved energy efficiency, more renewables in electricity production and other sectors, easier substitution between electricity and fossil fuels for final users, and drastically limiting future production of oil, gas and coal. Our conclusion is that net zero is possible by introducing very strict measures, e.g., a high rate of energy efficiency improvement, far above what has been achieved in the past. While our partial equilibrium energy model, similar to the IEA model, overlooks the potential rebound effects, i.e., more energy used by consumers due to lower prices caused by energy efficiency improvement, our macroeconomic model does capture the rebound effects and has to implement stricter supply-side measures to reduce fossil fuel use to achieve the 1.5 °C scenario.The Effects on Energy Markets of Achieving a 1.5 °C ScenariopublishedVersio

Emission pricing and CO2 compensation in the EU. The optimal compensation to the power-intensive and trade-exposed industries for increased electricity prices

Unilateral CO2 emission reduction can lead to carbon leakage, such as relocation of power-intensive and trade-exposed industries. In the EU emission trading system, these industries are also subjected to higher cost of electricity due to emission pricing in this sector. As a result, the industries in the EU receive free emission allowances to mitigate carbon leakage as well as CO2 compensation due to higher electricity cost. This paper examines the welfare effects of supplementing free allowances with a CO2 compensation on the power-intensive and trade-exposed goods. The analytical results suggest that introducing CO2 compensation has a regional and global welfare improving effect under certain plausible conditions. Numerical simulations in the context of the EU ETS support the analytical findings if the emission reduction target is stringent enough

Rask solnedgang for norsk olje og gass i en verden der 1,5 ºC-målet nås?

Norge har sluttet seg til Parisavtalen og 1,5 ºC-målet, som innebærer at verden må nå netto null utslipp av CO2 innen midten av dette århundret. Norsk økonomi lener seg fortsatt tungt på olje- og gassinntekter med et betydelig innslag av ressursrente. Dermed blir det et viktig spørsmål for Norge hvor raskt det grønne skiftet snevrer inn etterspørselen etter olje og gass, og hvilken grad det vil være rom for fremtidige investeringer i petroleum på norsk sokkel. IEAs global netto null-utslippsscenario som kan lede til 1,5 ºC-målet er utgangspunktet for modellanalysen av norsk olje og gass i denne artikkelen. Det innføres både globale etterspørsels- og tilbudssidetiltak slik at målet nås. Denne artikkelen finner noe overraskende at de samlede inntektene fra norsk sokkel ikke trenger å falle i særlig grad.publishedVersio