How modelers construct energy costs: Discursive elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models

Energy system and integrated assessment models (IAMs) are widely used techniques for knowledge production to assess costs of future energy pathways and economic effects of energy/climate policies. With their increased use for policy assessment and increasing dominance in energy policy science, such models attract increasing criticism. In the last years, such models – especially the highly complex IAMs, have been accused of being arbitrary. We challenge this view and argue that the models and their assumptions are not arbitrary, but they are normative and reflect the modelers’ understanding of the functioning of the society, the environment-societal relations and respective appropriate scientific tools and theories – in short: models are shaped by discursive structures, reproducing and reinforcing particular societal discourses. We identify 9 distinct paths, all relating to crucial model decisions, via which discourses enter models: for each of these decisions, there are multiple “correct” answers, in the sense that they can be justified within a particular discourse. We conclude that decisions of modelers about the structure and about assumptions in energy modeling are not arbitrary but contingent to the discursive context the modeler is related to. This has two implications. First, modelers and consumers of model output must reflect on what a model and its assumptions represent, and not only whether are they correct. Second, models hardly need to add more (mathematical) complexity, but rather be reduced and simplified so that they can continue to fulfill their main function as formalized and powerful instruments for thought experiments about future energy pathways

On Transmission Grid Governance

Meeting 100% of Europe.s electricity needs through renewable energy by 2050 is possible - if we succeed in pooling the potential of Europe's renewable energy sources. This will require cooperation between the EU member states, as well as coherent policies and regulation at the European level. Both currently exist only in fragments, as energy policy in Europe is still shaped mainly at the national level. The Heinrich Boell Foundation therefore asked a number of experts to take stock of European policy in the sectors most important for the transition to renewable energy, to identify the areas in which European cooperation has been inadequate to date, and to propose possible solutions. The construction of a European grid is a prerequisite for the joint exploitation of renewable energy sources in Europe. But although the necessity to construct such a grid is now widely accepted, the construction of this grid and especially of the interconnectors between the different European countries is progressing slowly. In this paper, Antonella Battaglini and Johan Lilliestam explore what could be done - especially on the European level - to speed up the construction of a European grid

Final Report: Energy Security in Scenarios for Europe's Future Electricity Supply

In the last few years, a number of studies concerning pathways for the very far-reaching decarbonisation of the European power system were published. These studies have had a considerable impact on both climate and energy policy and on the European energy debate in general, because they all conclude that it is technically possible and probably even economically beneficial to decarbonise the European power sector by 80-100% by 2050 using mainly, or exclusively, electricity from renewable sources in a pan-European, Supergrid, approach, supported by electricity imports from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Most of these studies also reach the conclusion that decarbonisation through renewables expansion is secure: that it can maintain or increase European energy security compared to today. The last statement is important, because energy security is a high priority for policy makers. At the same time, there is reason to be worried that the empirical and analytic basis for the security statement is less robust than the statements concerning technical and economic feasibility. In many energy and electricity scenarios, Europe will import a substantial share of it its energy needs, either in the form of fossil or nuclear power plant fuels or, as is the case in Supergrid decarbonisation scenarios, as renewable electricity. However, it is not always clear from which regions or countries these imports originate, or in which setting they will take place. In most cases, "energy security" is not even defined, and it lies at hand that the subject of the security considerations may vary widely across different studies. Generally speaking, the energy security statements in the Supergrid studies are often weakly underpinned or, in some cases, it is not at all clear what the base for such a strong conclusion is. Still, any scenario of the future electricity supply must prove that it is secure, or Europe would be well advised not to pursue policies that support developments in the direction pointed out in the scenario. Finding out whether importing renewable electricity from MENA would be a threat to European energy security was the aim of the project, the results and implications of which are summarised here, together with an overall conclusion. The project was carried out in three parts, all based on novel theoretical, epistemological and methodological approaches, which are described in detail in a series of scientific articles. First, we clarified the concept of energy security from a European policy-perspective, identifying the core components of the concept as they are relevant here. In the second part we explored the political risks, here narrowed down to the frequently discussed issues of dependence and "energy weapon" events on the one hand and terrorism attacks on the other. In the third part we assessed the overall failure risks of electricity scenarios. We describe each of these research tasks and results in section 1-3 of this document, and then in section 4 evaluate, holistically, overall energy security of renewable electricity imports for Europe

Shades of green: Centralisation, decentralisation and controversy among European renewable electricity visions

To decarbonise its electricity system, Europe must rapidly expand renewables. We analyse the controversy between two organisations, Eurosolar and Desertec, which seemingly pursue the same goal of 100% renewable electricity. We show that they interpret “100% renewables” differently and envision fundamentally different renewable electricity futures, to be reached through different governance pathways driven by different actors. Desertec reacts to mankind’s violation of the Earth’s carrying capacity and seeks secure decarbonisation through renewables, for which centrally regulated, large-scale imports of controllable concentrating solar power from the desert are necessary. Eurosolar, in contrast, seeks to decentralise the electricity supply and disempower the actors who caused the unsustainable and undemocratic energy system, for which renewables are suited as they are carbon-neutral and decentralised by nature. As the core aim of Desertec, controllable solar power imports through large-scale infrastructure, violates Eurosolar’s core aim of decentralisation, a compromise is difficult: this would require one organisation to give up its primary objective. Our results show that the reason for this controversy among renewables proponents lies not in technology or cost, and can thus not be identified or resolved through techno-economic analysis or modelling, but in irreconcilable differences in normative aims and governance choices

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabilities severe enough to halt development of any technology, although we do find a potential value in exploring options for making PV cells more heat resilient, and for improving the design of cooling systems for CSP

Fostering interdependence to minimise political risks in a European-North African renewable electricity supergrid

The option of decarbonisation of the European power sector with the help of significant imports of renewable electricity from North Africa via a trans-continental electricity Supergrid is increasingly gaining attention. In this paper, we investigate the geopolitical risks to European energy security in such a future, and discuss cornerstones for possible policy strategies to reduce these risks. The strategies are rooted in the interdependence between exporter and importer. We come to the conclusion that fostering and deepening, as opposed to reducing, the dependence of both sides on each other may be a valuable and powerful way to reduce the geopolitical risks of renewable electricity trade between Europe and North Africa

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change

This paper reviews the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight—thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP)—and identify critical climate vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in mean conditions and extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabilities severe enough to halt development of any of the technologies mentioned, although we do find a potential value in exploring options for making PV cells more heat-resilient and for improving the design of cooling systems for CS

Moving towards 100% renewable electricity in Europe & North Africa by 2050

In spring 2010, European and international climate experts at PwC, the European Climate Forum, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis published 100% Renewable Electricity - A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa. The report examined the potential for powering Europe and North Africa with renewable electricity exclusively by 2050. It set out a series of financial, market, infrastructure and government policy steps that would need to occur if such a "what if" vision was to be achieved. Now, a year on, this latest report provides a complementary analysis to the original roadmap. PwC, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, look at whether the vision of 100% renewable electricity has moved closer or further away as a result of current and recent developments over the last 12 months. The report, intended to support the wider debate in this area, examines five areas that are most critical to achieving progress and, through the lens of these five areas, looks at the impact of recent and current events