Developing an indicator of productive potential to assess land use suitability in New Zealand

The Land Use Suitability (LUS) concept informs decision-making by stakeholders with information about the economic and environmental consequences of land use choices. LUS is composed of three indicators describing the inherent productive and economic potential of land parcels (productive potential), the contribution of a land parcel to lose contaminants relative to other land parcels (relative contribution), and the load of contaminants lost compared to the load that ensures that environmental objectives are met (pressure). This paper outlines an improved indicator of productive potential (PP). We outline the four layers of information that comprise PP for a land parcel: (1) Feasibility, which defines whether the productivity and quality of a crop is enough to allow the land use to be undertaken; (2) Yield, which is the amount of a product or crop that can be grown; (3) Economic returns, given the yield and other requirements for the land parcel; and (4) Economic Importance, which combines information about the economic returns and the probability of a land use being undertaken. These layers can be combined into a single PP indicator of the value of the land for economic use. The PP indicator can be expressed continuously or categorically and mapped at a national scale. When combined with the Relative Contribution and Pressure indicators in the LUS system, it allows for identification of areas which are most suitable for intensification by providing for a direct comparison of the economic and environmental outcomes

An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity

Seasonal streamflow prediction skill can derive from catchment initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and from the future seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) used to produce the hydrological forecasts. Although much effort has gone into producing state-of-the-art seasonal streamflow forecasts from improving IHCs and SCFs, these developments are expensive and time consuming and the forecasting skill is still limited in most parts of the world. Hence, sensitivity analyses are crucial to funnel the resources into useful modelling and forecasting developments. It is in this context that a sensitivity analysis technique, the variational ensemble streamflow prediction assessment (VESPA) approach, was recently introduced. VESPA can be used to quantify the expected improvements in seasonal streamflow forecast skill as a result of realistic improvements in its predictability sources (i.e., the IHCs and the SCFs) - termed ‘skill elasticity’ - and to indicate where efforts should be targeted. The VESPA approach is however computationally expensive, relying on multiple hindcasts having varying levels of skill in IHCs and SCFs. This paper presents two approximations of the approach that are computationally inexpensive alternatives. These new methods were tested against the original VESPA results using 30 years of ensemble hindcasts for 18 catchments of the contiguous United States. The results suggest that one of the methods, End Point Blending, is an effective alternative for estimating the forecast skill elasticities yielded by the VESPA approach. The results also highlight the importance of the choice of verification score for a goal-oriented sensitivity analysis

Preliminary analysis of alternative divertors for DEMO

A physics and engineering analysis of alternative divertor configurations is carried out by examining benefits and problems by comparing the baseline single null solution with a Snowflake, an X- and a Super-X divertor. It is observed that alternative configurations can provide margin and resilience against large power fluctuations, but their engineering has intrinsic difficulties, especially in the balance between structural solidity and accessibility of the components and when the specific poloidal field coil positioning poses further constraints. A hybrid between the X- and Super-X divertor is proposed as a possible solution to the integration challenge

Preliminary analysis of alternative divertors for DEMO

A physics and engineering analysis of alternative divertor configurations is carried out by examining benefits and problems by comparing the baseline single null solution with a Snowflake, an X- and a Super-X divertor. It is observed that alternative configurations can provide margin and resilience against large power fluctuations, but their engineering has intrinsic difficulties, especially in the balance between structural solidity and accessibility of the components and when the specific poloidal field coil positioning poses further constraints. A hybrid between the X- and Super-X divertor is proposed as a possible solution to the integration challenge

Neptune to the Common-wealth of England (1652): the republican Britannia and the continuity of interests

In the seventeenth century, John Kerrigan reminds us, “models of empire did not always turn on monarchy”. In this essay, I trace a vision of “Neptune’s empire” shared by royalists and republicans, binding English national interest to British overseas expansion. I take as my text a poem entitled “Neptune to the Common-wealth of England”, prefixed to Marchamont Nedham’s 1652 English translation of Mare Clausum (1635), John Selden’s response to Mare Liberum (1609) by Hugo Grotius. This minor work is read alongside some equally obscure and more familiar texts in order to point up the ways in which it speaks to persistent cultural and political interests. I trace the afterlife of this verse, its critical reception and its unique status as a fragment that exemplifies the crossover between colonial republic and imperial monarchy at a crucial moment in British history, a moment that, with Brexit, remains resonant

Two Concepts of Basic Equality

It has become somewhat a commonplace in recent political philosophy to remark that all plausible political theories must share at least one fundamental premise, ‘that all humans are one another's equals’. One single concept of ‘basic equality’, therefore, is cast as the common touchstone of all contemporary political thought. This paper argues that this claim is false. Virtually all do indeed say that all humans are ‘equals’ in some basic sense. However, this is not the same sense. There are not one but (at least) two concepts of basic equality, and they reflect not a grand unity within political philosophy but a deep and striking division. I call these concepts ‘Equal Worth’ and ‘Equal Authority’. The former means that each individual’s good is of equal moral worth. The latter means that no individual is under the natural authority of anyone else. Whilst these two predicates are not in themselves logically inconsistent, I demonstrate that they are inconsistent foundation stones for political theory. A theory that starts from Equal Worth will find it near impossible to justify Equal Authority. And a theory that starts from Equal Authority will find any fact about the true worth of things, including ourselves, irrelevant to justifying legitimate action. This helps us identify the origin of many of our deepest and seemingly intractable disagreements within political philosophy, and directs our attention to the need for a clear debate about the truth and/or relationship between the two concepts. In short, my call to arms can be summed up in the demand that political philosophers never again be allowed to claim ‘that all human beings are equals’ full stop. They must be clear in what dimension they claim that we are equals—Worth or Authority (or perhaps something else)

Estimating nitrate-nitrogen leaching rates under rural land uses in Canterbury

Over the last two decades, agricultural production in the region has grown as a result of the increasing use of inputs, such as fertilisers, supplementary feeds and irrigation water, accompanied by the conversion of plantation forests and areas of extensive sheep and beef grazing into dairy farms. At the same time, there is increasing evidence that Canterbury’s freshwater resources are becoming degraded as a result of increasing inputs of nutrients, bacteria and sediment from these changing land uses (ECan 2008). If these land use changes continue under current management practices, modelling studies suggest that nitrate-N concentrations in shallow groundwater are likely to continue increasing in the future (Di & Cameron 2002; Bidwell et. al. 2009). Faced with this pressure on the region’s water resources, Environment Canterbury is reviewing its approach to managing the cumulative effects of land use, especially diffuse nutrient inputs, on water quality. Initially, Environment Canterbury undertook a preliminary study to examine the effects of agricultural land uses on water quality between the Rakaia and Waimakariri rivers (Di & Cameron 2004). More recently, the Canterbury Mayoral Forum (2009) commissioned modelling at a regional scale to assess the potential changes to water quality as a result of concern over the consequences of intensifying agricultural land uses in the region (Bidwell et. al. 2009 ). The Proposed Natural Resources Regional Plan set measurable water quality objectives for surface waters and groundwaters addresses point source discharges and sets limits for nutrient losses from irrigated properties in inland areas of Canterbury. However, the plan did not include provisions to adequately address the cumulative effects of nutrient loads from intensifying land uses and multiple point-source discharges. To remedy this problem, Bidwell (2008 & 2009) proposed an allocation approach, based on a “first in first served” basis to address the effects of nitrate-N discharges on shallow groundwater in relation to drinking water quality. A consent application to use water for irrigation would be assessed against existing land uses within a predetermined distance from the property where the proposed activity was going to take place. The discharge of nitrate-N from the proposed activity would be assessed in combination with the estimated nitrate-N leaching from land uses within the “area of interest.

Nitrate discharge to groundwater from agricultural land use: an initial assessment for the Canterbury Plains

This Technical Report arises from public concern about the effects of agricultural land use on groundwater quality. It applies existing tools and information to provide a strategic view of the issue of nitrate discharges to groundwater on the Canterbury Plains. The tools are being continually improved by scientists in consultation with Environment Canterbury and primary sector industries. Nitrate is one of the contaminants for which a threshold is set in the New Zealand Drinking-Water Standards of 11.3 mg/L nitrate-nitrogen. Nitrate-nitrogen is referred to as nitrate in this report. Existing monitoring of nitrate in groundwater is not an accurate indicator of the effects of existing land-use because of time lags. It can take up to several decades for the effect of a land-use change to be seen in groundwater. Nitrate concentrations also vary over a year, from year to year and are very influenced by day-to-day land use practices