Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models

Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are robust results of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In spite of these successes, model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses, however, have considerable implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of the 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3) models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models (some biases reach the simulated global precipitation changes in the 20th and 21st centuries) affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget. An imbalanced flux of -0.14 Sv exists while the multi-model median imbalance is only -0.02 Sv. Moreover, for most models the detected imbalance changes over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 CMIP3 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a 'leaking' of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining five models a 'flooding' is implied. Nonetheless, in all models, the actual atmospheric moisture content and its variability correctly increases during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries. These discrepancies therefore imply an unphysical and hence 'ghost' sink/source of atmospheric moisture in the models whose atmospheres flood/leak. The ghost source/sink of moisture can also be regarded as atmospheric latent heating/cooling and hence as positive/negative perturbation of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcing in the range of -1 to +6 W m^-2 (median +0.1 W m^-2). The inter-model variability of the global atmospheric moisture transport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cycle, is also quite high and ranges from 0.26 to 1.78 Sv. In the 21st century this transport to land increases by about 5% per century with a model-to-model range from 1 to 13%. We suggest that this variability is weakly correlated to the land-sea contrast in air temperature change of these models. Spatially heterogeneous forcings such as aerosols contribute to the variability in moisture transport, at least in one model. The polewards shifts of dry zones in climate simulations of the 21st century are also assessed. It is shown that the multi-model means of the two subsets of models with negative and positive imbalances in the atmospheric moisture budget produce spatial variability in the dry zone positions similar in size to the spatial shifts expected from 21st century global warming. Thus, the selection of models also affects the multi-model mean dry zone extension. In general, we caution the use of multi-model means of E - P fields and suggest self-consistency tests for climate models

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing

The Vertical Distribution of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks from the Surface to Top of Atmosphere

The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth’s climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO2 forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m−2 K−1 (0.60 W m−2 K−1) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m−2 K−1 and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m−2 K−1; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m−2 K−1, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight the fundamental importance of the global water cycle to Earth’s climate sensitivity

Multi-trait mimicry of ants by a parasitoid wasp

Many animals avoid attack from predators through toxicity or the emission of repellent chemicals. Defensive mimicry has evolved in many species to deceive shared predators, for instance through colouration and other morphological adaptations, but mimicry hardly ever seems to involve multi-trait similarities. Here we report on a wingless parasitoid wasp that exhibits a full spectrum of traits mimicing ants and affording protection against ground-dwelling predators (wolf spiders). In body size, morphology and movement Gelis agilis (Ichneumonidae) is highly similar to the black garden ant (Lasius niger) that shares the same habitat. When threatened, G. agilis also emits a volatile chemical that is similar to an ant-produced chemical that repels spiders. In bioassays with L. niger, G. agilis, G. areator, Cotesia glomerata and Drosophila melanogaster, ants and G. agilis were virtually immune to spider attack, in contrast the other species were not. Volatile characterisation with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry identified G. agilis emissions as 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one, a known insect defence semiochemical that acts as an alarm pheromone in ants. We argue that multi-trait mimicry, as observed in G. agilis, might be much more common among animals than currently realized

Comparing unilateral and bilateral upper limb training: The ULTRA-stroke program design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>About 80% of all stroke survivors have an upper limb paresis immediately after stroke, only about a third of whom (30 to 40%) regain some dexterity within six months following conventional treatment programs. Of late, however, two recently developed interventions - constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) and bilateral arm training with rhythmic auditory cueing (BATRAC) - have shown promising results in the treatment of upper limb paresis in chronic stroke patients. The ULTRA-stroke (acronym for Upper Limb TRaining After stroke) program was conceived to assess the effectiveness of these interventions in subacute stroke patients and to examine how the observed changes in sensori-motor functioning relate to changes in stroke recovery mechanisms associated with peripheral stiffness, interlimb interactions, and cortical inter- and intrahemispheric networks. The present paper describes the design of this single-blinded randomized clinical trial (RCT), which has recently started and will take several years to complete.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Sixty patients with a first ever stroke will be recruited. Patients will be stratified in terms of their remaining motor ability at the distal part of the arm (i.e., wrist and finger movements) and randomized over three intervention groups receiving modified CIMT, modified BATRAC, or an equally intensive (i.e., dose-matched) conventional treatment program for 6 weeks. Primary outcome variable is the score on the Action Research Arm test (ARAT), which will be assessed before, directly after, and 6 weeks after the intervention. During those test sessions all patients will also undergo measurements aimed at investigating the associated recovery mechanisms using haptic robots and magneto-encephalography (MEG).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>ULTRA-stroke is a 3-year translational research program which aims (1) to assess the relative effectiveness of the three interventions, on a group level but also as a function of patient characteristics, and (2) to delineate the functional and neurophysiological changes that are induced by those interventions.</p> <p>The outcome on the ARAT together with information about changes in the associated mechanisms will provide a better understanding of how specific therapies influence neurobiological changes, and which post-stroke conditions lend themselves to specific treatments.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>The ULTRA-stroke program is registered at the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR, <url>http://www.trialregister.nl</url>, number NTR1665).</p

The Chemistry of the Postpharyngeal Gland of Female European Beewolves

Females of the European beewolf, Philanthus triangulum, possess a large glove-shaped gland in the head, the postpharyngeal gland (PPG). They apply the content of the PPG to their prey, paralyzed honeybees, where it delays fungal infestation. Here, we describe the chemical composition of the gland by using combined GC-MS, GC-FTIR, and derivatization. The PPG of beewolves contains mainly long-chain unsaturated hydrocarbons (C23–C33), lower amounts of saturated hydrocarbons (C14–C33), and minor amounts of methyl-branched hydrocarbons (C17–C31). Additionally, the hexane-soluble gland content is comprised of small amounts of an unsaturated C25 alcohol, an unknown sesquiterpene, an octadecenylmethylester, and several long-chain saturated (C25, C27) and unsaturated (C23–C27) ketones, some of which have not yet been reported as natural products. Surprisingly, we found a dimorphism with regard to the major component of the PPG with some females having (Z)-9-pentacosene, whereas others have (Z)-9-heptacosene as their predominant component. The biological relevance of the compounds for the prevention of fungal growth on the prey and the significance of the chemical dimorphism are discussed

Predicting climate change using response theory: global averages and spatial patterns

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(105105) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO22 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

Impairment of Auditory-Motor Timing and Compensatory Reorganization after Ventral Premotor Cortex Stimulation

Integrating auditory and motor information often requires precise timing as in speech and music. In humans, the position of the ventral premotor cortex (PMv) in the dorsal auditory stream renders this area a node for auditory-motor integration. Yet, it remains unknown whether the PMv is critical for auditory-motor timing and which activity increases help to preserve task performance following its disruption. 16 healthy volunteers participated in two sessions with fMRI measured at baseline and following rTMS (rTMS) of either the left PMv or a control region. Subjects synchronized left or right finger tapping to sub-second beat rates of auditory rhythms in the experimental task, and produced self-paced tapping during spectrally matched auditory stimuli in the control task. Left PMv rTMS impaired auditory-motor synchronization accuracy in the first sub-block following stimulation (p<0.01, Bonferroni corrected), but spared motor timing and attention to task. Task-related activity increased in the homologue right PMv, but did not predict the behavioral effect of rTMS. In contrast, anterior midline cerebellum revealed most pronounced activity increase in less impaired subjects. The present findings suggest a critical role of the left PMv in feed-forward computations enabling accurate auditory-motor timing, which can be compensated by activity modulations in the cerebellum, but not in the homologue region contralateral to stimulation

Dissociation of Motor Task-Induced Cortical Excitability and Pain Perception Changes in Healthy Volunteers

Background: There is evidence that interventions aiming at modulation of the motor cortex activity lead to pain reduction. In order to understand further the role of the motor cortex on pain modulation, we aimed to compare the behavioral (pressure pain threshold) and neurophysiological effects (transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) induced cortical excitability) across three different motor tasks. Methodology/Principal Findings Fifteen healthy male subjects were enrolled in this randomized, controlled, blinded, cross-over designed study. Three different tasks were tested including motor learning with and without visual feedback, and simple hand movements. Cortical excitability was assessed using single and paired-pulse TMS measures such as resting motor threshold (RMT), motor-evoked potential (MEP), intracortical facilitation (ICF), short intracortical inhibition (SICI), and cortical silent period (CSP). All tasks showed significant reduction in pain perception represented by an increase in pressure pain threshold compared to the control condition (untrained hand). ANOVA indicated a difference among the three tasks regarding motor cortex excitability change. There was a significant increase in motor cortex excitability (as indexed by MEP increase and CSP shortening) for the simple hand movements. Conclusions/Significance: Although different motor tasks involving motor learning with and without visual feedback and simple hand movements appear to change pain perception similarly, it is likely that the neural mechanisms might not be the same as evidenced by differential effects in motor cortex excitability induced by these tasks. In addition, TMS-indexed motor excitability measures are not likely good markers to index the effects of motor-based tasks on pain perception in healthy subjects as other neural networks besides primary motor cortex might be involved with pain modulation during motor training