Dynamic population health modeling for quantitative health impact assessment : Methodological foundation and selected applications

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) – the evaluation policies, projects, or proposals concerning their effects on human health – becomes increasingly common practice at the local, national, and EU

The Didactic Balance: Simulation and Experimentation

In this era of technological progress, the educational games have recently generated a new field of research, at the crossroads of the didactic and the educational engineering. In a previous paper, the authors presented "the didactic balance": an educational game with a didactic vocation to help the learners to overcome their difficulties while solving one-degree equations. In this paper, we propose to experiment it with a sample of students from middle school. The analysis of the data collected allows us to advance some conclusions on the attainable educational goals, particularly in terms of skills transfer, and on the limits to be exceeded for the integration of this type of game in schools

Unconditional cash transfers for assistance in humanitarian disasters: effects on the use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND: Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) are a common social protection intervention that increases income, a key social determinant of health, in disaster contexts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of UCTs in improving health services use, health outcomes, social determinants of health, health care expenditure, and local markets and infrastructure in LMICs. We also compared the relative effectiveness of UCTs delivered in-hand with in-kind transfers, conditional cash transfers, and UCTs paid through other mechanisms. SEARCH METHODS: We searched 17 academic databases, including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (The Cochrane Library 2014, Issue 7), MEDLINE, and EMBASE between May and July 2014 for any records published up until 4 May 2014. We also searched grey literature databases, organisational websites, reference lists of included records, and academic journals, as well as seeking expert advice. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials (RCTs), as well as cohort, interrupted time series, and controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs) on UCTs in LMICs. Primary outcomes were the use of health services and health outcomes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently screened all potentially relevant records for inclusion criteria, extracted the data, and assessed the included studies\u27 risk of bias. We requested missing information from the study authors. MAIN RESULTS: Three studies (one cluster-RCT and two CBAs) comprising a total of 13,885 participants (9640 children and 4245 adults) as well as 1200 households in two LMICs (Nicaragua and Niger) met the inclusion criteria. They examined five UCTs between USD 145 and USD 250 (or more, depending on household characteristics) that were provided by governmental, non-governmental or research organisations during experiments or pilot programmes in response to droughts. Two studies examined the effectiveness of UCTs, and one study examined the relative effectiveness of in-hand UCTs compared with in-kind transfers and UCTs paid via mobile phone. Due to the methodologic limitations of the retrieved records, which carried a high risk of bias and very serious indirectness, we considered the body of evidence to be of very low overall quality and thus very uncertain across all outcomes.Depending on the specific health services use and health outcomes examined, the included studies either reported no evidence that UCTs had impacted the outcome, or they reported that UCTs improved the outcome. No single outcome was reported by more than one study. There was a very small increase in the proportion of children who received vitamin or iron supplements (mean difference (MD) 0.10 standard deviations (SDs), 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06 to 0.14) and on the child\u27s home environment, as well as clinically meaningful, very large reductions in the chance of child death (hazard ratio (HR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.66) and the incidence of severe acute malnutrition (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.80). There was also a moderate reduction in the number of days children spent sick in bed (MD - 0.36 SDs, 95% CI - 0.62 to - 0.10). There was no evidence for any effect on the proportion of children receiving deworming drugs, height for age among children, adults\u27 level of depression, or the quality of parenting behaviour. No adverse effects were identified. The included comparisons did not examine several important outcomes, including food security and equity impacts.With regard to the relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with a food transfer providing a relatively high total caloric value, there was no evidence that a UCT had any effect on the chance of child death (HR 2.27, 95% CI 0.69 to 7.44) or severe acute malnutrition (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.99). A UCT paid in-hand led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the household dietary diversity score, compared with the same UCT paid via mobile phone (difference-in-differences estimator 0.43 scores, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.80), but there was no evidence for an effect on social determinants of health, health service expenditure, or local markets and infrastructure. AUTHORS\u27 CONCLUSIONS: Additional high-quality evidence (especially RCTs of humanitarian disaster contexts other than droughts) is required to reach clear conclusions regarding the effectiveness and relative effectiveness of UCTs for improving health services use and health outcomes in humanitarian disasters in LMICs

Repurposed therapeutic agents targeting the Ebola virus: a protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND: The recent Ebola epidemic in western Africa developed into an acute public health emergency of unprecedented level in modern times. The treatment provided in most cases has been limited to supportive care, as no approved therapies are available to date. Several established, licenced drugs have been suggested as potential repurposed therapeutic agents for Ebola. However, scientific data on their efficacy in treating Ebola is limited. The purpose of this review is to systematically assess scientific evidence on potential drugs targeting Ebola. In specific, we aim to (1) identify drug library screens involving therapeutic agents targeting the Ebola virus, (2) list potential approved drugs identified from drug screens and review their mechanism of action against the Ebola virus and (3) summarise the outcome of preclinical and clinical trials investigating approved drugs targeting the Ebola virus. METHODS/DESIGN: We will develop comprehensive systematic search strategies and will perform a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Two authors will independently screen the titles, abstracts and the references of all selected articles on the basis of inclusion criteria. These include any available drug screening, preclinical studies and clinical studies examining the efficacy of approved therapeutic agents targeting the Ebola virus. There will be no restrictions on the type of participants, the type of comparator, time or setting. Data extraction and quality assessment will be undertaken by two review authors working independently. DISCUSSION: This systematic review will provide systematic knowledge on potential repurposed therapeutic agents targeting Ebola. It aims to help guide future investigations on repurposed drugs and avoid repetitive studies

Cost recommendation under uncertainty in IQWiG’s efficiency frontier framework

Background: The National Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) employs an efficiency frontier (EF) framework to facilitate setting maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is used when yes/no reimbursement decisions are sought based on a fixed threshold. In the IQWiG framework, an additional layer of complexity arises as the EF itself may vary its shape in each PSA iteration, and thus the willingness-to-pay, indicated by the EF segments, may vary. Objectives: To explore the practical problems arising when, within the EF approach, maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions are sought through PSA. Methods: When the EF is varied in a PSA, cost recommendations for new interventions may be determined by the mean or the median of the distances between each intervention’s point estimate and each EF. Implications of using these metrics were explored in a simulation study based on the model used by IQWiG to assess the cost-effectiveness of 4 antidepressants. Results. Depending on the metric used, cost recommendations can be contradictory. Recommendations based on the mean can also be inconsistent. Results (median) suggested that costs of duloxetine, venlafaxine, mirtazapine, and bupropion should be decreased by €131, €29, €12, and €99, respectively. These recommendations were implemented and the analysis repeated. New results suggested keeping the costs as they were. The percentage of acceptable PSA outcomes increased 41% on average, and the uncertainty associated to the net health benefit was significantly reduced. Conclusions: The median of the distances between every intervention outcome and every EF is a good proxy for the cost recommendation that would be given should the EF be fixed. Adjusting costs according to the median increased the probability of acceptance and reduced the uncertainty around the net health benefit distribution, resulting in a reduced uncertainty for decision makers

Quantifying uncertainty in health impact assessment: a case-study example on indoor housing ventilation.

Quantitative health impact assessment (HIA) is increasingly being used to assess the health impacts attributable to an environmental policy or intervention. As a consequence, there is a need to assess uncertainties in the assessments because of the uncertainty in the HIA models. In this paper, a framework is developed to quantify the uncertainty in the health impacts of environmental interventions and is applied to evaluate the impacts of poor housing ventilation. The paper describes the development of the framework through three steps: (i) selecting the relevant exposure metric and quantifying the evidence of potential health effects of the exposure; (ii) estimating the size of the population affected by the exposure and selecting the associated outcome measure; (iii) quantifying the health impact and its uncertainty. The framework introduces a novel application for the propagation of uncertainty in HIA, based on fuzzy set theory. Fuzzy sets are used to propagate parametric uncertainty in a non-probabilistic space and are applied to calculate the uncertainty in the morbidity burdens associated with three indoor ventilation exposure scenarios: poor, fair and adequate. The case-study example demonstrates how the framework can be used in practice, to quantify the uncertainty in health impact assessment where there is insufficient information to carry out a probabilistic uncertainty analysis

Systematic reviews as a “lens of evidence”: determinants of cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening

Systematic reviews with economic components are important decision tools for stakeholders seeking to evaluate technologies, such as breast cancer screening (BCS) programs. This overview of systematic reviews explores the determinants of the cost‐effectiveness of BCS and assesses the quality of secondary evidence. The search identified 30 systematic reviews that reported on the determinants of the cost‐effectiveness of BCS, including the costs of breast cancer and BCS. While the quality of the reviews varied widely, only four out of 30 papers were considered to be of a high quality. We did not identify publication bias in the original evidence on the cost‐effectiveness of mammography screening; however, we highlight a need for improved clarity in both reporting and data verification. The reviews consisted mainly of studies from high‐income countries. Breast cancer costs varied widely among the studies. Factors leading to higher costs included: time (diagnosis and last months before death), later stage or metastases, recurrence of the disease, age below 64 years and type of follow‐up (more intensive or more specialized). Overall, screening with mammography was considered cost‐effective in the age range 50‐69 years in Western European and Northern American countries but not for older or younger women. Its cost‐effectiveness was questionable for low‐income settings and Asia. Mammography screening was more cost‐effective with biennial screening compared to annual screening and single reading using computer‐aided detection vs double reading. No information on the cost‐effectiveness of ultrasonography was found, and there is much uncertainty on the cost‐effectiveness of CBE because of methodological limitations

Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low-and middle-income countries

Background Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs; provided without obligation) for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities (e.g. orphanhood, old age or HIV infection) are a type of social protection intervention that addresses a key social determinant of health (income) in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). The relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with conditional cash transfers (CCTs; provided so long as the recipient engages in prescribed behaviours such as using a health service or attending school) is unknown. Objectives To assess the effects of UCTs for improving health services use and health outcomes in vulnerable children and adults in LMICs. Secondary objectives are to assess the effects of UCTs on social determinants of health and healthcare expenditure and to compare to effects of UCTs versus CCTs. Search methods We searched 17 electronic academic databases, including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (the Cochrane Library 2017, Issue 5), MEDLINE and Embase, in May 2017. We also searched six electronic grey literature databases and websites of key organisations, handsearched key journals and included records, and sought expert advice. Selection criteria We included both parallel group and cluster‐randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi‐RCTs, cohort and controlled before‐and‐after (CBAs) studies, and interrupted time series studies of UCT interventions in children (0 to 17 years) and adults (18 years or older) in LMICs. Comparison groups received either no UCT or a smaller UCT. Our primary outcomes were any health services use or health outcome. Data collection and analysis Two reviewers independently screened potentially relevant records for inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We tried to obtain missing data from study authors if feasible. For cluster‐RCTs, we generally calculated risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes from crude frequency measures in approximately correct analyses. Meta‐analyses applied the inverse variance or Mantel‐Haenszel method with random effects. We assessed the quality of evidence using the GRADE approach. Main results We included 21 studies (16 cluster‐RCTs, 4 CBAs and 1 cohort study) involving 1,092,877 participants (36,068 children and 1,056,809 adults) and 31,865 households in Africa, the Americas and South‐East Asia in our meta‐analyses and narrative synthesis. The 17 types of UCTs we identified, including one basic universal income intervention, were pilot or established government programmes or research experiments. The cash value was equivalent to 1.3% to 53.9% of the annualised gross domestic product per capita. All studies compared a UCT with no UCT, and three studies also compared a UCT with a CCT. Most studies carried an overall high risk of bias (i.e. often selection and/or performance bias). Most studies were funded by national governments and/or international organisations. Throughout the review, we use the words \u27probably\u27 to indicate moderate‐quality evidence, \u27may/maybe\u27 for low‐quality evidence, and \u27uncertain\u27 for very low‐quality evidence. UCTs may not have impacted the likelihood of having used any health service in the previous 1 to 12 months, when participants were followed up between 12 and 24 months into the intervention (risk ratio (RR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.09, P = 0.07, 5 cluster‐RCTs, N = 4972, I² = 2%, low‐quality evidence). At one to two years, UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, very large reduction in the likelihood of having had any illness in the previous two weeks to three months (odds ratio (OR) 0.73, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.93, 5 cluster‐RCTs, N = 8446, I² = 57%, moderate‐quality evidence). Evidence from five cluster‐RCTs on food security was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta‐analysis, but it suggested that at 13 to 24 months\u27 follow‐up, UCTs could increase the likelihood of having been food secure over the previous month (low‐quality evidence). UCTs may have increased participants\u27 level of dietary diversity over the previous week, when assessed with the Household Dietary Diversity Score and followed up 24 months into the intervention (mean difference (MD) 0.59 food categories, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.01, 4 cluster‐RCTs, N = 9347, I² = 79%, low‐quality evidence). Despite several studies providing relevant evidence, the effects of UCTs on the likelihood of being moderately stunted and on the level of depression remain uncertain. No evidence was available on the effect of a UCT on the likelihood of having died. UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the likelihood of currently attending school, when assessed at 12 to 24 months into the intervention (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.09, 6 cluster‐RCTs, N = 4800, I² = 0%, moderate‐quality evidence). The evidence was uncertain for whether UCTs impacted livestock ownership, extreme poverty, participation in child labour, adult employment or parenting quality. Evidence from six cluster‐RCTs on healthcare expenditure was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta‐analysis, but it suggested that UCTs may have increased the amount of money spent on health care at 7 to 24 months into the intervention (low‐quality evidence). The effects of UCTs on health equity (or unfair and remedial health inequalities) were very uncertain. We did not identify any harms from UCTs. Three cluster‐RCTs compared UCTs versus CCTs with regard to the likelihood of having used any health services, the likelihood of having had any illness or the level of dietary diversity, but evidence was limited to one study per outcome and was very uncertain for all three. Authors\u27 conclusions This body of evidence suggests that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may not impact a summary measure of health service use in children and adults in LMICs. However, UCTs probably or may improve some health outcomes (i.e. the likelihood of having had any illness, the likelihood of having been food secure, and the level of dietary diversity), one social determinant of health (i.e. the likelihood of attending school), and healthcare expenditure. The evidence on the relative effectiveness of UCTs and CCTs remains very uncertain