State-space models' dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (\textit{Ursus maritimus}) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results

Feeding Two Birds With One Scone? The Relationship Between Teaching and Research for Graduate Students Across the Disciplines

We surveyed over 300 graduate students at a Southeastern research university to increase our understanding of their perceptions of (a) the connection between teaching and research, (b) the means by which integration occurs, and (c) the extent to which teaching and research contribute to a shared skill set that is of value in both contexts. We also examined differences across disciplines in the perception of this teaching-research nexus. Overall, findings indicate that graduate students perceive important relationships between teaching and research, and they point toward opportunities for administrators to promote teaching and research integration

Thymic output and CD4 T-cell reconstitution in HIV-infected children on early and interrupted antiretroviral treatment: evidence from the CHER trial.

Objectives: Early treatment of HIV-infected children and adults is important for optimal immune reconstitution. Infants’ immune systems are more plastic and dynamic than older children’s or adults’, and deserve particular attention. This study aimed to understand the response of the HIV-infected infant immune system to early antiretroviral therapy (ART) and planned ART interruption and re-start. Design: We used linear and nonlinear regression and mixed-effects models to describe children’s CD4 trajectories and to identify predictors of CD4 count during early and interrupted ART. Methods: Data from HIV-infected children enrolled CHER trial, starting ART aged between 6 and 12 weeks, was used to explore the effect of ART on immune reconstitution. Results: Early treatment arrested the decline in CD4 count but did not fully restore it to the levels observed in HIV-uninfected children. Treatment interruption at 40 or 96 weeks resulted in a rapid decline in CD4 T-cells, which on retreatment returned to levels observed before interruption. Naïve CD4 T-cell count was an important determinant of overall CD4 levels. A strong correlation was observed between thymic output and the stable CD4 count both before and after treatment interruption. Conclusions: Early identification and treatment of HIV-infected infants is important to stabilize CD4 counts at the highest levels possible. Once stabilized, children’s CD4 counts appear resilient, with good potential for recovery following treatment interruption. The naïve T-cell pool and thymic production of naive cells are key determinants of children’s CD4 levels

The psychological interaction of spam email features

This study explored distinct perceptual and decisional contributions to spam email mental construal. Participants classified spam emails according to pairings of three stimulus features – presence or absence of awkward prose, abnormal message structure, and implausible premise. We examined dimensional interactions within general recognition theory (GRT; a multidimensional extension of signal detection theory). Classification accuracy was highest for categories containing either two non-normal dimension levels (e.g. awkward prose and implausible premise) or two normal dimension levels (e.g. normal prose and plausible premise). Modelling indicated both perceptual and decisional contributions to classification responding. In most cases, perceptual discriminability was higher along one dimension when stimuli contained a non-normal level of the paired dimension (e.g. prose discriminability was higher with abnormal structure). Similarly, decision criteria along one dimension were biased in favour of the non-normal response when stimuli contained a non-normal level of the paired dimension. Potential applications for training are discussed

Current definitions of advanced multimorbidity: a protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION: People living with and dying from multimorbidity are increasing in number, and ensuring quality care for this population is one of the major challenges facing healthcare providers. People with multimorbidity often have a high burden of palliative and end-of-life care needs, though they do not always access specialist palliative care services. A key reason for this is that they are often not identified as being in the last stages of their life by current healthcare providers and systems.This scoping review aims to identify and present the available evidence on how people with multimorbidity are currently included in research, policy and clinical practice.METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Scoping review methodology, based on Arksey and O'Malley's framework, will be undertaken and presented using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews. Search terms have been generated using the key themes of 'multimorbidity', 'end of life' and 'palliative care'. Peer-reviewed research will be obtained through systematic searching of Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus and PsycINFO. Grey literature will be searched in a systematic manner. Literature containing a definition for adults with multimorbidity in a terminal phase of their illness experience will be included. After screening studies for eligibility, included studies will be described in terms of setting and characteristics as well as using inductive content analysis to highlight the commonalities in definitions.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for this scoping review. The findings of the scoping review will be used internally as part of SPB's PhD thesis at the University of St Andrews through the Multimorbidity Doctoral Training Programme for Health Professionals, which is supported by the Wellcome Trust (223499/Z/21/Z) and published in an open access, peer-reviewed journal for wider dissemination.</p

Defining and distinguishing infant behavioral states using acoustic cry analysis: is colic painful?

BackgroundTo characterize acoustic features of an infant's cry and use machine learning to provide an objective measurement of behavioral state&nbsp;in a cry-translator. To apply the&nbsp;cry-translation algorithm to colic hypothesizing that these cries sound painful.MethodsAssessment of 1000 cries in a mobile app (ChatterBabyTM). Training a cry-translation&nbsp;algorithm by evaluating &gt;6000 acoustic features to predict whether infant cry was due to a pain (vaccinations, ear-piercings), fussy, or hunger states. Using the algorithm to predict the behavioral state of infants with reported colic.ResultsThe cry-translation&nbsp;algorithm was 90.7% accurate for identifying pain cries, and achieved 71.5% accuracy in discriminating cries from fussiness, hunger, or pain. The ChatterBaby&nbsp;cry-translation&nbsp;algorithm overwhelmingly predicted that colic cries were most likely from pain, compared to fussy and hungry states. Colic cries had average pain ratings of 73%, significantly greater than the pain measurements found in fussiness and hunger (p &lt; 0.001, 2-sample t test). Colic cries outranked pain cries by measures of acoustic intensity, including energy, length of voiced periods, and fundamental frequency/pitch, while fussy and hungry cries showed reduced intensity measures compared to pain and colic.ConclusionsAcoustic features of cries are consistent across a diverse infant population and can be utilized as objective markers of pain, hunger, and fussiness. The&nbsp;ChatterBaby algorithm detected significant acoustic similarities between colic and painful cries, suggesting that they may share a neuronal pathway

StereoTactic radiotherapy for wet Age-Related macular degeneration (STAR):Study protocol for a randomized controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND: The standard of care for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) involves ongoing intravitreal injections of anti-angiogenic drugs targeting vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). The most commonly used anti-VEGF drugs are ranibizumab, bevacizumab and aflibercept. The main objective of the STAR trial is to determine if stereotactic radiotherapy can reduce the number of anti-VEGF injections that patients with nAMD require. METHODS/DESIGN: STAR is a multicentre, double-masked, randomised, sham-controlled clinical trial. It evaluates a new device (manufactured by Oraya, Newark, CA, USA) designed to deliver stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) to nAMD lesions. The trial enrols participants with chronic, active nAMD. Participants receive a single SRT treatment (16 Gy or sham) with a concomitant baseline intravitreal injection of 0.5 mg ranibizumab. Thereafter, they attend every month for 24 months, and ranibizumab is administered at the visit if retreatment criteria are met. The primary outcome is the number of pro re nata ranibizumab injections during the first 24 months. Secondary outcomes include visual acuity, lesion morphology, quality of life and safety. Additional visits occur at 36 and 48 months to inspect for radiation retinopathy. The target sample size of 411 participants (randomised 2:1 in favour of radiation) is designed to detect a reduction of 2.5 injections against ranibizumab monotherapy, at 90% power, and a significance level (alpha) of 0.025 (one-sided two-sample t test). This gives 97% power to detect non-inferiority of visual acuity at a five-letter margin. The primary analyses will be by intention to treat. DISCUSSION: The safety and efficacy outcomes will help determine the role of SRT in the management of chronic, active nAMD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN12884465. Registered on 28 November 2014. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02243878. Registered on 17 September 2014

An analysis of views about supported reduction or discontinuation of antipsychotic treatment among people with schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders

BACKGROUND: Antipsychotic medication can reduce psychotic symptoms and risk of relapse in people with schizophrenia and related disorders, but it is not always effective and adverse effects can be significant. We know little of patients' views about continuing or discontinuing antipsychotic treatment. AIMS: To explore the views of people with schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders about continuing their antipsychotic medication or attempting to reduce or discontinue this medication with clinical support. METHODS: We collected quantitative and qualitative data by conducting semi-structured interviews in London, UK. Factors predicting a desire to discontinue medication were explored. Content analysis of qualitative data was undertaken. RESULTS: We interviewed 269 participants. 33% (95% CI, 27 to 39%) were content with taking long-term antipsychotic medication. Others reported they took it reluctantly (19%), accepted it on a temporary basis (24%) or actively disliked it (18%). 31% (95% CI, 25 to 37%) said they would like to try to stop medication with professional support, and 45% (95% CI, 39 to 51%) wanted the opportunity to reduce medication. People who wanted to discontinue had more negative attitudes towards the medication but were otherwise similar to other participants. Wanting to stop or reduce medication was motivated mainly by adverse effects and health concerns. Professional support was identified as potentially helpful to achieve reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This large study reveals that patients are commonly unhappy about the idea of taking antipsychotics on a continuing or life-long basis. Professional support for people who want to try to reduce or stop medication is valued

Association between fruit and vegetable intakes and mental health in the australian diabetes obesity and lifestyle cohort

Increasing prevalence of mental health disorders within the Australian population is a serious public health issue. Adequate intake of fruits and vegetables (FV), dietary fibre (DF) and resistant starch (RS) is associated with better mental and physical health. Few longitudinal studies exist exploring the temporal relationship. Using a validated food frequency questionnaire, we examined baseline FV intakes of 5845 Australian adults from the AusDiab study and estimated food group-derived DF and RS using data from the literature. Perceived mental health was assessed at baseline and 5 year follow up using SF-36 mental component summary scores (MCS). We conducted baseline cross-sectional analysis and prospective analysis of baseline dietary intake with perceived mental health at 5 years. Higher baseline FV and FV-derived DF and RS intakes were associated with better 5 year MCS (p \u3c 0.001). A higher FV intake (754 g/d vs. 251 g/d, Q4 vs. Q1) at baseline had 41% lower odds (OR = 0.59: 95% CI 0.46–0.75) of MCS below population average ( \u3c 47) at 5 year follow up. Findings were similar for FV-derived DF and RS. An inverse association was observed with discretionary food-derived DF and RS. This demonstrates the association between higher intakes of FV and FV-derived DF and RS with better 5 year mental health outcomes. Further RCTs are necessary to understand mechanisms that underlie this association including elucidation of causal effects