Atlantic Salmon Fishery in the Baltic Sea – A Case of Trivial Cooperation

This paper analyses the management of the Atlantic salmon stocks in the Baltic Sea through a coalition game in the partition function form. The signs of economic and biological over-exploitation of these salmon stocks over the last two decades indicate that cooperation among the harvesting countries, under the European Union's Common Fisheries Policy, has been superficial. Combining a two-stage game of four asymmetric players with a comprehensive bioeconomic model, we conclude that cooperation under the Relative Stability Principle is not a stable outcome. In contrast, the equilibrium of the game is non-cooperation. The paper also addresses the possibility of enhancing cooperation through more flexible fishing strategies. The results indicate that partial cooperation is stable under a specific sharing scheme. It is also shown that substantial economic benefits could have been realised by reallocating the fishing effort.Atlantic salmon, bioeconomic model, coalition formation, partition function, sharing rules, stability analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Integration of biological, economic and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential Baltic salmon management plan

There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. In this paper we demonstrate a probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic salmon fisheries. The analysis is based on several studies carried out by scientists from respective disciplines. The main part consisted of biological and ecological stock assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries. Recreational fisheries were evaluated separately. Finally, a sociological study was conducted aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment to alternative management plans. In order to synthesize the findings from these disparate studies a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology is used. The ranking of management options can depend on the stakeholder perspective. The trade-offs can be analysed quantitatively with the BBN model by combining, according to the decision maker’s set of priorities, utility functions that represent stakeholders’ views. We show how BBN can be used to evaluate robustness of management decisions to different priorities and various sources of uncertainty. In particular, the importance of sociological studies in quantifying uncertainty about the commitment of fishermen to management plans is highlighted by modelling the link between commitment and implementation success.Baltic salmon, bio-economic modelling, Bayesian Belief Network, expert knowledge, fisheries management, commitment and implementation uncertainty, management plan, recreational fisheries, stakeholders., Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Communicating climate risk: a toolkit

The Communicating Climate Risk toolkit draws together best practice on the effective communication of climate information from across STEM, social sciences, and arts and humanities. It provides users with insights, recommendations, and tools for all forms of climate-related communication and decision-making, and identifies open problems

Identifying Nash equilibrium strategies for a multi-fleet multi-national fishery under uncertainty

Designing economic incentives to achieve a desired policy outcome from a fishery could be helped by exploring it within a game-theoretic context. We use Baltic salmon fishery to show how complex interactions between national fleets, offshore and coastal fishermen, and migratory stock dynamics can be analysed with a bio-economic model set up as a game of four asymmetric players. For Baltic salmon there is a stochastic and complex bio-economic model conditioned on a state-space Bayesian stock assessment which captures uncertainty in stock dynamics. We calculate Nash equilibrium under various cost and price scenarios for each combination of a salmon population model parameters, using an MCMC chain obtained from their joint posterior distribution so that the correlations between different life-history parameters are accounted for. We use results of many simulations to explore how natural variability and economic uncertainties affect Nash equilibrium strategies

How Consumer Power Affects Recommendations in the Online Environment

We find that consumers with power exercise influence by generating recommendations in the online environment. Four studies demonstrate that power predicts the tendency to generate online recommendations and systematically affects recommendation content. Powerful consumers' need to influence mediates this effect and the perceived potential for influence moderates it

The Potential for Insurance to Mediate Economic Risks in Marine Fisheries

In agriculture there has been a long history of using a levy or an insurance premium to create mutual funds to mediate economic risks to growers due to environmental variability and quarantine pests. In the United States the federal government, through the USDA, continues to underwrite funds (collected by private insurance agents) which are used to protect contributors from the effects of extreme weather and pest and disease losses. In Europe mutual funds such as the Kartoffelafgiftsfonden in Denmark and Potatopol in the Netherlands have been developed to mediate risks from some potato diseases in different ways. This paper uses established methods of economic risk management from agriculture and applies these to marine fisheries to demonstrate how financial risks could be mediated by the creation of insurance funds. Through the use of probabilistic estimates of future catches and prices, and the risk of depletion across various scenarios, we investigate how government and industry participation in creating and managing funds may encourage increased protection of fisheries, and compliance and enforcement for fishery regulations. The paper also explores how fund exposure may be reduced by the application of reinsurance from commercial insurers for the upper tail of high cost, low probability events, such as total fishery collapse

The economic value of environmental data: a notional insurance scheme for the European anchovy

Anchovy population dynamics in the Gulf of Cádiz are governed by environmental processes. Sea surface temperature, intense easterly winds, and discharges from the Guadalquivir River have been identified as key factors determining early life stage mortality in this anchovy stock. We have constructed an environment-based recruitment model that simulates the abundance of juveniles under alternative parameters representing plausible biological hypotheses. We are able to evaluate how modelling environment-based recruitment can affect stock assessment and how responding to environmental information can benefit fishery management to allow greater average catch levels through the application of harvest control rules (HCRs) based on environmental conditions. While the environment-based rules generally increase allowable catch levels the variance in catch levels also increases, detracting from the improved value based only on average yield. In addition to changes in revenue, the probability of stock collapse is also reduced by using environmental factors in HCRs. To assess the value of these management systems we simulate a notional insurance scheme, which applies a value to both average yields and uncertainty. The value of the information-driven rules can be determined by comparing the relevant premiums payable for equal levels of insurance cover on revenue within each specific management regime. We demonstrate the net value of incorporating environmental factors in the management of anchovies in the Gulf of Cádiz despite the increased variability in revenue. This could be an effective method to describe outcomes for both commercial fisheries and ecosystem management policies, and as a guide to management of other species whose dynamics are predictable based on in-season observations

International Fisheries Management and Recreational Benefits: The Case of Baltic Salmon

This article studies how accounting for the benefits of recreational fisheries affects the formation and stability of an international fisheries agreement (IFA) on the management of Baltic salmon stocks. The interaction between four countries is modelled through a partition function game, under two scenarios. In the first scenario, countries take their participation decision for the IFA based only on the net present value of profits from commercial fisheries. In the second scenario, the net present value of the recreational benefits from angling is also considered. The results show that accounting for recreational benefits leads to the formation of the grand coalition, whereas only partial cooperation occurs when payoffs are confined to profits from commercial fisheries

On the role of visualisation in fisheries management

Environmental change has focused the attention of scientists, policy makers and the wider public on the uncertainty inherent in interactions between people and the environment. Governance in fisheries is required to involve stakeholder participation and to be more inclusive in its remit, which is no longer limited to ensuring a maximum sustainable yield from a single stock but considers species and habitat interactions, as well as social and economic issues. The increase in scope, complexity and awareness of uncertainty in fisheries management has brought methodological and institutional changes throughout the world. Progress towards comprehensive, explicit and participatory risk management in fisheries depends on effective communication. Graphic design and data visualisation have been underused in fisheries for communicating science to a wider range of stakeholders. In this paper, some of the general aspects of designing visualisations of modelling results are discussed and illustrated with examples from the EU funded MYFISH project. These infographics were tested in stakeholder workshops, and improved through feedback from that process. It is desirable to convey not just modelling results but a sense of how reliable various models are. A survey was developed to judge reliability of different components of fisheries modelling: the quality of data, the quality of knowledge, model validation efforts, and robustness to key uncertainties. The results of these surveys were visualized for ten different models, and presented alongside the main case study.Versión del editor1,86