Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets

[Excerpt] While many have written about possible effects of the baby boom on the U.S. economy, few have recognized that this demographic transition provides analysts with a unique and valuable opportunity to investigate how the labor market works. Specifically, as baby boomers move up the age distribution, they impart a one-time shock to the supply of potential workers in each age bracket. Because this change is exogenous, many of the tools labor economists typically apply can be utilized to predict how the aging of the baby boom will alter key labor market outcomes. Theoretical and empirical models which (either implicitly or explicitly) hold constant structural parameters in order to work through the effects of an exogenous shock are well-suited to address this issue

Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Early Childbearing

We examine the empirical relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and rates of early childbearing. First, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to confirm a strong correlation at the individual level - women who grow up "disadvantaged" are much more likely to give birth as teens. Then we aggregate Vital Statistics microdata from 1968 through 2003 to conduct a cohort-based analysis of the relationship between rates of socioeconomic disadvantage of a birth cohort and the cohort's subsequent early childbearing experiences. Our cohort level analysis implies an even tighter intergenerational correlation between rates of background disadvantage and early childbearing. But, when our analysis econometrically controls for fixed state and year of birth effects in the model to account for cultural and other differences across cohorts, the relationship between rates of disadvantage and early childbearing is found to be quite modest. For example, the elasticity of early childbearing rates by age 18 with respect to the probability of being born to a mother under age 18 is only 0.05. This suggests that broader, societal forces are far more important in determining rates of early childbearing than rates of socioeconomic disadvantage per se.

Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets

This paper examines the likely effects of the aging of the baby boom on labor force attachment, unemployment, and wages. Labor market trends between now and 2020 are the focus of analysis, when the majority of the baby boom generation will confront its retirement decision. We begin by reviewing past labor force trends and discussing important limitations of existing projection methods. Key elements needed to project the consequences of the demographic shock facing the labor market are identified. The task of developing a fully specified economic model to examine the effect of the aging of the baby boom on the labor market is as yet incomplete. On the basis of the best available evidence, we suggest the following conclusions can be drawn: The trend towards earlier retirement will slow and perhaps reverse in the next few decades. Unemployment should fall among older workers and the aggregate full-employment unemployment rate should also decline as the baby boom ages. The aging of the baby boom will not depress wages substantially, either for older workers or for other demographic groups.

Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior

This paper examines the impact of recent state-level Medicaid policy changes that expanded eligibility for family planning services to higher income women and to Medicaid clients whose benefits would expire otherwise. We begin by establishing that the income-based policy change led to a substantial increase in the number of program recipients. We then examine Vital Statistics birth data from 1990 to 2003 and determine that it also reduced overall births to non-teens by about two percent and to teens by over four percent. Our estimates suggest a nearly nine percent reduction in births to women age 20-44 made eligible by the policy change. We supplement our state-level analysis with an investigation of individual-level data from the 1988, 1995, and 2002 National Surveys of Family Growth (NSFG) to examine the impact of these policies on sexual behavior and contraceptive use. Evidence from this analysis suggests that the reduction in fertility associated with raising income thresholds for eligibility was accomplished via greater use of contraception. Our calculations indicate that allowing higher income women to receive federally-funded family planning cost on the order of $6,800 for each averted birth.

Aging, Job Satisfaction, and Job Performance

The national trend to earlier retirement is surprising in light of conventional wisdom holding that older workers are healthy, satisfied and productive employees -- sometimes even more so than their younger counterparts. This paper examines whether conventional wisdom is wrong by reviewing existing studies and noting some of their most important shortcomings. New empirical evidence is provided on the links between aging, job satisfaction, and job performance using data from a nationally representative survey of workers

Information, VARs and DSGE Models

How informative is a time series representation of a given vector of observables about the structural shocks and impulse response functions in a DSGE model? In this paper we refer to this econometrician’s problem as “E-invertibility” and consider the corresponding information problem of the agents in the assumed DGP, the DSGE model, which we refer to as “A-invertibility” We consider how the general nature of the agents’ signal extraction problem under imperfect information impacts on the econometrician’s problem of attempting to infer the nature of structural shocks and associated impulse responses from the data. We also examine a weaker condition of recoverability. A general conclusion is that validating a DSGE model by comparing its impulse response functions with those of a data VAR is more problematic when we drop the common assumption in the literature that agents have perfect information as an endowment. We develop measures of approximate fundamentalness for both perfect and imperfect information cases and illustrate our results using analytical and numerical examples

The Anticorrelated Nature of the Primary and Secondary Eclipse Timing Variations for the Kepler Contact Binaries

We report on a study of eclipse timing variations in contact binary systems, using long-cadence lightcurves in the Kepler archive. As a first step, 'observed minus calculated' (O-C) curves were produced for both the primary and secondary eclipses of some 2000 Kepler binaries. We find ~390 short-period binaries with O-C curves that exhibit (i) random-walk like variations or quasi-periodicities, with typical amplitudes of +/- 200-300 seconds, and (ii) anticorrelations between the primary and secondary eclipse timing variations. We present a detailed analysis and results for 32 of these binaries with orbital periods in the range of 0.35 +/- 0.05 days. The anticorrelations observed in their O-C curves cannot be explained by a model involving mass transfer, which among other things requires implausibly high rates of ~0.01 M_sun per year. We show that the anticorrelated behavior, the amplitude of the O-C delays, and the overall random-walk like behavior can be explained by the presence of a starspot that is continuously visible around the orbit and slowly changes its longitude on timescales of weeks to months. The quasi-periods of ~50-200 days observed in the O-C curves suggest values for k, the coefficient of the latitude dependence of the stellar differential rotation, of ~0.003-0.013.Comment: Published in The Astrophysical Journal, 2013, Vol. 774, p.81; 14 pages, 12 figures, and 2 table

The structure of lightning flashes HF-UHF: 12 September 1975, Atlanta, Georgia

Simultaneous measurement of sferics at 3, 30, 139, and 295 MHz were made during thunderstorms. Wideband electronics and an analogue tape recorder continuously recorded the radiation from lightning with about 300 kHz of bandwidth. The data were obtained during the passage of a cold front. Flashing rate, burst rate and the structure of individual flashes were recorded. The record of a typical flash begins with a sudden burst of closely spaced pulses whose temporal structure is typical of the stepped leader, and ends in a large pulse suggestive of a first return stroke. The remainder of the flash consists of a sequence of pulses of varying amplitude separated by quiet periods of the order of milliseconds. The shape of these pulses and the temporal structure suggest that the first few large pulses are return strokes. Other discharges begin with widely spaced discrete pulses and resemble the preceding discharge less the leader and return stroke phase. The radiation exhibits a similar structure, at each of the frequencies monitored

Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing

Abstract: This paper explores how specific media images affect adolescent attitudes and outcomes. The specific context examined is the widely viewed MTV franchise, 16 and Pregnant, a series of reality TV shows including the Teen Mom sequels, which follow the lives of pregnant teenagers during the end of their pregnancy and early days of motherhood. We investigate whether the show influenced teens ’ interest in contraceptive use or abortion, and whether it ultimately altered teen childbearing outcomes. We use data from Google Trends and Twitter to document changes in searches and tweets resulting from the show, Nielsen ratings data to capture geographic variation in viewership, and Vital Statistics birth data to measure changes in teen birth rates. We find that 16 and Pregnant led to more searches and tweets regarding birth control and abortion, and ultimately led to a 5.7 percent reduction in teen births in the 18 months following its introduction. This accounts for around one-third of the overall decline in teen births in the United States during that period