Dissecting magnetar variability with Bayesian hierarchical models

Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behaviour, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favoured models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterise the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organised criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.Comment: accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; code available at https://bitbucket.org/dhuppenkothen/magnetron, data products at http://figshare.com/articles/SGR_J1550_5418_magnetron_data/129242

Asymptotic integral kernel for ensembles of random normal matrices with radial potentials

We use the steepest descents method to study the integral kernel of a family of normal random matrix ensembles with eigenvalue distribution P_{N}(z_{1},...,z_{N}) = Z_{N}^{-1} e^{-NSigma_{i=1}^{N}V_{alpha}(z_{i})} Pi_{1leqi<jleqN}|z_{i}-z_{j}|^{2} where V_{alpha}(z)=|z|^{alpha}, z in C and alpha in ]0,infty[. Asymptotic analysis with error estimates are obtained. A corollary of this expansion is a scaling limit for the n-point function in terms of the integral kernel for the classical Segal--Bargmann space

The properties of dynamically ejected runaway and hyper-runaway stars

Runaway stars are stars observed to have large peculiar velocities. Two mechanisms are thought to contribute to the ejection of runaway stars, both involve binarity (or higher multiplicity). In the binary supernova scenario a runaway star receives its velocity when its binary massive companion explodes as a supernova (SN). In the alternative dynamical ejection scenario, runaway stars are formed through gravitational interactions between stars and binaries in dense, compact clusters or cluster cores. Here we study the ejection scenario. We make use of extensive N-body simulations of massive clusters, as well as analytic arguments, in order to to characterize the expected ejection velocity distribution of runaways stars. We find the ejection velocity distribution of the fastest runaways (>~80 km s^-1) depends on the binary distribution in the cluster, consistent with our analytic toy model, whereas the distribution of lower velocity runaways appears independent of the binaries properties. For a realistic log constant distribution of binary separations, we find the velocity distribution to follow a simple power law; Gamma(v) goes like v^(-8/3) for the high velocity runaways and v^(-3/2) for the low velocity ones. We calculate the total expected ejection rates of runaway stars from our simulated massive clusters and explore their mass function and their binarity. The mass function of runaway stars is biased towards high masses, and depends strongly on their velocity. The binarity of runaways is a decreasing function of their ejection velocity, with no binaries expected to be ejected with v>150 km s^-1. We also find that hyper-runaways with velocities of hundreds of km s^-1 can be dynamically ejected from stellar clusters, but only at very low rates, which cannot account for a significant fraction of the observed population of hyper-velocity stars in the Galactic halo.Comment: Now matching published ApJ versio

Ruling Out Chaos in Compact Binary Systems

We investigate the orbits of compact binary systems during the final inspiral period before coalescence by integrating numerically the second-order post-Newtonian equations of motion. We include spin-orbit and spin-spin coupling terms, which, according to a recent study by Levin [J. Levin, Phys. Rev. Lett. 84, 3515 (2000)], may cause the orbits to become chaotic. To examine this claim, we study the divergence of initially nearby phase-space trajectories and attempt to measure the Lyapunov exponent gamma. Even for systems with maximally spinning objects and large spin-orbit misalignment angles, we find no chaotic behavior. For all the systems we consider, we can place a strict lower limit on the divergence time t_L=1/gamma that is many times greater than the typical inspiral time, suggesting that chaos should not adversely affect the detection of inspiral events by upcoming gravitational-wave detectors.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Who I Am: The Meaning of Early Adolescents’ Most Valued Activities and Relationships, and Implications for Self-Concept Research

Self-concept research in early adolescence typically measures young people’s self-perceptions of competence in specific, adult-defined domains. However, studies have rarely explored young people’s own views of valued self-concept factors and their meanings. For two major self domains, the active and the social self, this mixed-methods study identified factors valued most by 526 young people from socioeconomically diverse backgrounds in Ireland (10-12 years), and explored the meanings associated with these in a stratified subsample (n = 99). Findings indicate that self-concept scales for early adolescence omit active and social self factors and meanings valued by young people, raising questions about content validity of scales in these domains. Findings also suggest scales may under-represent girls’ active and social selves; focus too much on some school-based competencies; and, in omitting intrinsically salient self domains and meanings, may focus more on contingent (extrinsic) rather than true (intrinsic) self-esteem

Analysis of symmetries in models of multi-strain infections

In mathematical studies of the dynamics of multi-strain diseases caused by antigenically diverse pathogens, there is a substantial interest in analytical insights. Using the example of a generic model of multi-strain diseases with cross-immunity between strains, we show that a significant understanding of the stability of steady states and possible dynamical behaviours can be achieved when the symmetry of interactions between strains is taken into account. Techniques of equivariant bifurcation theory allow one to identify the type of possible symmetry-breaking Hopf bifurcation, as well as to classify different periodic solutions in terms of their spatial and temporal symmetries. The approach is also illustrated on other models of multi-strain diseases, where the same methodology provides a systematic understanding of bifurcation scenarios and periodic behaviours. The results of the analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of a large class of models of multi-strain diseases

CGC, QCD Saturation and RHIC data (Kharzeev-Levin-McLerran-Nardi point of view)

This is the talk given at the Workshop:"Focus on Multiplicitioes", Bari, Italy, 17-19 June,2004.. In this talk, we are going to discuss ion-ion and deuteron - nucleus RHIC data and show that they support, if not more, the idea of the new QCD phase: colour glass condensate with saturated parton density. .Comment: 26 pages with 33 figure

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis I: the single cell

Mathematical modeling of bacterial chemotaxis systems has been influential and insightful in helping to understand experimental observations. We provide here a comprehensive overview of the range of mathematical approaches used for modeling, within a single bacterium, chemotactic processes caused by changes to external gradients in its environment. Specific areas of the bacterial system which have been studied and modeled are discussed in detail, including the modeling of adaptation in response to attractant gradients, the intracellular phosphorylation cascade, membrane receptor clustering, and spatial modeling of intracellular protein signal transduction. The importance of producing robust models that address adaptation, gain, and sensitivity are also discussed. This review highlights that while mathematical modeling has aided in understanding bacterial chemotaxis on the individual cell scale and guiding experimental design, no single model succeeds in robustly describing all of the basic elements of the cell. We conclude by discussing the importance of this and the future of modeling in this area

Near-infrared proper motions and spectroscopy of infrared excess sources at the Galactic Center

There are a number of faint compact infrared excess sources in the central stellar cluster of the Milky Way. Their nature and origin is unclear. In addition to several isolated objects of this kind we find a small but dense cluster of co-moving sources (IRS13N) about 3" west of SgrA* just 0.5" north of the bright IRS13E cluster of WR and O-type stars. Based on their color and brightness, there are two main possibilities: (1) they may be dust embedded stars older than few Myr, or (2) extremely young, dusty stars with ages less than 1Myr. We present fist H- and Ks-band identifications or proper motions of the IRS13N members, the high velocity dusty S-cluster object (DSO), and other infrared excess sources in the central field. We also present results of NIR H- and Ks-band ESO-SINFONI integral field spectroscopy of ISR13N. We show that within the uncertainties, the proper motions of the IRS13N sources in Ks- and L'-band are identical. This indicates that the bright L'-band IRS13N sources are indeed dust enshrouded stars rather than core-less dust clouds. The proper motions show that the IRS13N sources are not strongly gravitationally bound to each other implying that they have been formed recently. We also present a first H- and Ks-band identification as well as proper motions and HKsL'-colors of a fast moving DSO which was recently found in the cluster of high speed S-stars that surround the super-massive black hole Sagittarius A* (SgrA*). Most of the compact L'-band excess emission sources have a compact H- or Ks-band counterpart and therefore are likely stars with dust shells or disks. Our new results and orbital analysis from our previous work favor the hypothesis that the infrared excess IRS13N members and other dusty sources close to SgrA* are very young dusty stars and that star formation at the GC is a continuously ongoing process.Comment: 20 pages, 18 figures, 4 tables plus appendix with 16 figures and 3 tables accepted by A&

Pathological Computed Tomography Features Associated with Adverse Outcomes after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury:A TRACK-TBI Study with External Validation in CENTER-TBI

Importance: A head computed tomography (CT) with positive results for acute intracranial hemorrhage is the gold-standard diagnostic biomarker for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI). In moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] scores 3-12), some CT features have been shown to be associated with outcomes. In mild TBI (mTBI; GCS scores 13-15), distribution and co-occurrence of pathological CT features and their prognostic importance are not well understood. Objective: To identify pathological CT features associated with adverse outcomes after mTBI. Design, Setting, and Participants: The longitudinal, observational Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study enrolled patients with TBI, including those 17 years and older with GCS scores of 13 to 15 who presented to emergency departments at 18 US level 1 trauma centers between February 26, 2014, and August 8, 2018, and underwent head CT imaging within 24 hours of TBI. Evaluations of CT imaging used TBI Common Data Elements. Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) scores were assessed at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months postinjury. External validation of results was performed via the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study. Data analyses were completed from February 2020 to February 2021. Exposures: Acute nonpenetrating head trauma. Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequency, co-occurrence, and clustering of CT features; incomplete recovery (GOSE scores <8 vs 8); and an unfavorable outcome (GOSE scores <5 vs ≥5) at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months. Results: In 1935 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 41.5 [17.6] years; 1286 men [66.5%]) in the TRACK-TBI cohort and 2594 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 51.8 [20.3] years; 1658 men [63.9%]) in an external validation cohort, hierarchical cluster analysis identified 3 major clusters of CT features: contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma; intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage; and epidural hematoma. Contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma features were associated with incomplete recovery (odds ratios [ORs] for GOSE scores <8 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.39-2.33]; CENTER-TBI, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.18-3.41]) and greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes (ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 3.23 [95% CI, 1.59-6.58]; CENTER-TBI, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.13-2.49]) out to 12 months after injury, but epidural hematoma was not. Intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage was associated with greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes up to 12 months after injury (eg, OR for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: 3.47 [95% CI, 1.66-7.26]). Some CT features were more strongly associated with outcomes than previously validated variables (eg, ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: neuropsychiatric history, 1.43 [95% CI.98-2.10] vs contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma, 3.23 [95% CI 1.59-6.58]). Findings were externally validated in 2594 patients with mTBI enrolled in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, pathological CT features carried different prognostic implications after mTBI to 1 year postinjury. Some patterns of injury were associated with worse outcomes than others. These results support that patients with mTBI and these CT features need TBI-specific education and systematic follow-up