Constrained invariant mass distributions in cascade decays. The shape of the "m(qll)-threshold" and similar distributions

Considering the cascade decay $D\to c C \to c b B \to c b a A$ in which $D,C,B,A$ are massive particles and $c,b,a$ are massless particles, we determine for the first time the shape of the distribution of the invariant mass of the three massless particles $m_{abc}$ for the sub-set of decays in which the invariant mass $m_{ab}$ of the last two particles in the chain is (optionally) constrained to lie inside an arbitrary interval, $m_{ab} \in [ m_{ab}^\text{cut min}, m_{ab}^\text{cut max}]$. An example of an experimentally important distribution of this kind is the ``$m_{qll}$ threshold'' -- which is the distribution of the combined invariant mass of the visible standard model particles radiated from the hypothesised decay of a squark to the lightest neutralino via successive two body decay,: \squark \to q \ntlinoTwo \to q l \slepton \to q l l \ntlinoOne , in which the experimenter requires additionally that $m_{ll}$ be greater than ${m_{ll}^{max}}/\sqrt{2}$. The location of the ``foot'' of this distribution is often used to constrain sparticle mass scales. The new results presented here permit the location of this foot to be better understood as the shape of the distribution is derived. The effects of varying the position of the $m_{ll}$ cut(s) may now be seen more easily

Sampling using a 'bank' of clues

An easy-to-implement form of the Metropolis Algorithm is described which, unlike most standard techniques, is well suited to sampling from multi-modal distributions on spaces with moderate numbers of dimensions (order ten) in environments typical of investigations into current constraints on Beyond-the-Standard-Model physics. The sampling technique makes use of pre-existing information (which can safely be of low or uncertain quality) relating to the distribution from which it is desired to sample. This information should come in the form of a ``bank'' or ``cache'' of space points of which at least some may be expected to be near regions of interest in the desired distribution. In practical circumstances such ``banks of clues'' are easy to assemble from earlier work, aborted runs, discarded burn-in samples from failed sampling attempts, or from prior scouting investigations. The technique equilibrates between disconnected parts of the distribution without user input. The algorithm is not lead astray by ``bad'' clues, but there is no free lunch: performance gains will only be seen where clues are helpful

Multidimensional mSUGRA likelihood maps

We calculate the likelihood map in the full 7 dimensional parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) assuming universal boundary conditions on the supersymmetry breaking terms. Simultaneous variations of m_0, A_0, M_{1/2}, tan beta, m_t, m_b and alpha_s(M_Z) are applied using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We use measurements of b -> s gamma, (g-2)_mu and Omega_{DM} h^2 in order to constrain the model. We present likelihood distributions for some of the sparticle masses, for the branching ratio of B_s^0 -> mu^+ mu^- and for m_{stau}-m_{chi_1^0}. An upper limit of 2.10^{-8} on this branching ratio might be achieved at the Tevatron, and would rule out 29% of the currently allowed likelihood. If one allows for non thermal-neutralino components of dark matter, this fraction becomes 35%. The mass ordering allows the important cascade decay squark_L -> chi_2^0 -> slepton_R -> chi_1^0 with a likelihood of 24+/-4%. The stop coannihilation region is highly disfavoured, whereas the light Higgs region is marginally disfavoured

Measuring masses of semi-invisibly decaying particle pairs produced at hadron colliders

We introduce a variable useful for measuring masses of particles pair produced at hadron colliders, where each particle decays to one particle that is directly observable and another particle whose existence can only be inferred from missing transverse momenta. This variable is closely related to the transverse mass variable commonly used for measuring the $W$ mass at hadron colliders, and like the transverse mass our variable extracts masses in a reasonably model independent way. Without considering either backgrounds or measurement errors we consider how our variable would perform measuring the mass of selectrons in a mSUGRA SUSY model at the LHC

Determining SUSY model parameters and masses at the LHC using cross-sections, kinematic edges and other observables.

We address the problem of mass measurements of supersymmetric particles at the Large Hadron Collider, using the ATLAS detector as an example. By using Markov Chain sampling techniques to combine standard measurements of kinematic edges in the invariant mass distributions of decay products with a measurement of a missing $p_T$ cross-section, we show that the precision of mass measurements at the LHC can be dramatically improved, even when we do not assume that we have measured the kinematic endpoints precisely, or that we have identified exactly which particles are involved in the decay chain causing the endpoints. The generality of the technique is demonstrated in a preliminary investigation of a non-universal SUGRA model, in which we relax the requirements of mSUGRA by breaking the degeneracy of the GUT scale gaugino masses. The model studied is compatible with the WMAP limits on dark matter relic density

Improving estimates of the number of ‘fake’ leptons and other mis-reconstructed objects in hadron collider events: BoB’s your UNCLE

We consider current and alternative approaches to setting limits on new physics signals having backgrounds from misidentified objects; for example jets misidentified as leptons, b-jets or photons. Many ATLAS and CMS analyses have used a heuristic matrix method for estimating the background contribution from such sources. We demonstrate that the matrix method suffers from statistical shortcomings that can adversely affect its ability to set robust limits. A rigorous alternative method is discussed, and is seen to produce fake rate estimates and limits with better qualities, but is found to be too costly to use. Having investigated the nature of the approximations used to derive the matrix method, we propose a third strategy that is seen to marry the speed of the matrix method to the performance and physicality of the more rigorous approach.This is the final published version. It is available online from Springer in the Journal of High Energy Physics here: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/JHEP11(2014)031

Natural priors, CMSSM fits and LHC weather forecasts

Previous LHC forecasts for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), based on current astrophysical and laboratory measurements, have used priors that are flat in the parameter tan beta, while being constrained to postdict the central experimental value of MZ. We construct a different, new and more natural prior with a measure in mu and B (the more fundamental MSSM parameters from which tan beta and MZ are actually derived). We find that as a consequence this choice leads to a well defined fine-tuning measure in the parameter space. We investigate the effect of such on global CMSSM fits to indirect constraints, providing posterior probability distributions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) sparticle production cross sections. The change in priors has a significant effect, strongly suppressing the pseudoscalar Higgs boson dark matter annihilation region, and diminishing the probable values of sparticle masses. We also show how to interpret fit information from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo in a frequentist fashion; namely by using the profile likelihood. Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of CMSSM fits are compared and contrasted

Measuring sparticle masses in non-universal string inspired models at the LHC

We demonstrate that some of the suggested five supergravity points for study at the LHC could be approximately derived from perturbative string theories or M-theory, but that charge and colour breaking minima would result. As a pilot study, we then analyse a perturbative string model with non-universal soft masses that are optimised in order to avoid global charge and colour breaking minima. By combining measurements of up to six kinematic edges from squark decay chains with data from a new kinematic variable, designed to improve slepton mass measurements, we demonstrate that a typical LHC experiment will be able to determine squark, slepton and neutralino masses with an accuracy sufficient to permit an optimised model to be distinguished from a similar standard SUGRA point. The technique thus generalizes SUSY searches at the LHC

The dark side of mSUGRA

We study the mu<0 branch of the minimal supergravity ansatz of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. The extent to which mu<0 is disfavoured compared to mu>0 in global fits is calculated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and bridge sampling. The fits include state-of-the-art two-loop MSSM contributions to the electroweak observables M_W and sin^2 theta_w^l, as well as the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon (g-2)_mu, the relic density of dark matter and other relevant indirect observables. mu<0 is only marginally disfavoured in global fits and should be considered in mSUGRA analyses. We estimate that the ratio of probabilities is P(mu0)=0.07-0.16

Standard model and supersymmetric flavor puzzles at the CERN large hadron collider

Can the Large Hadron Collider explain the masses and mixings of the known fermions? A promising possibility is that these masses and mixings are determined by flavor symmetries that also govern new particles that will appear at the LHC. We consider well-motivated examples in supersymmetry with both gravity- and gauge-mediation. Contrary to spreading belief, new physics need not be minimally flavor violating. We build non-minimally flavor violating models that successfully explain all known lepton masses and mixings, but span a wide range in their predictions for slepton flavor violation. In natural and favorable cases, these models have metastable sleptons and are characterized by fully reconstructible events. We outline many flavor measurements that are then possible and describe their prospects for resolving both the standard model and new physics flavor puzzles at the Large Hadron Collider