Environmental selection and resource allocation determine spatial patterns in picophytoplankton cell size

Here we describe a new trait-based model for cellular resource allocation that we use to investigate the relative importance of different drivers for small cell size in phytoplankton. Using the model, we show that increased investment in nonscalable structural components with decreasing cell size leads to a trade-off between cell size, nutrient and light affinity, and growth rate. Within the most extreme nutrient-limited, stratified environments, resource competition theory then predicts a trend toward larger minimum cell size with increasing depth. We demonstrate that this explains observed trends using a marine ecosystem model that represents selection and adaptation of a diverse community defined by traits for cell size and subcellular resource allocation. This framework for linking cellular physiology to environmental selection can be used to investigate the adaptive response of the marine microbial community to environmental conditions and the adaptive value of variations in cellular physiology

Sexually transmitted infections in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND: Data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Saudi Arabia (SA) and other Islamic countries are limited. This study describes the results of a five-year surveillance for STIs in SA. METHODS: This is a case series descriptive study of all confirmed STIs diagnosed in SA from January, 1995 through December, 1999. RESULTS: A total of 39049 STIs were reported to the Ministry of Health. Reported STIs included nongonococcal urethritis (14557 infections, 37.3%), trichomoniasis (10967 infections, 28.1%), gonococcal urethritis (5547 infections, 14.2%), syphilis (3385 infections, 8.7%), human immunodeficiency virus (2917 infections, 7.5%), genital warts (1382, 3.5%), genital herpes (216 infections, 0.6%), and chancroid (78 infections, 0.2%). The average annual incidence of STIs per 100,000 population for Saudis and non-Saudis, respectively, was as follows: 14.8 and 7.5 for nongonococcal urethritis, 9.4 and 10.4 for trichomoniasis, 5.2 and 4.2 for gonorrhea, 1.7 and 6.4 for syphilis, 0.6 and 8.0 for HIV, 1.4 and 0.7 for genital warts, 0.1 and 0.4 for genital herpes, and 0.1 and 0.1 for chancroid. The incidence of STIs was somewhat steady over the surveillance period except for nongonococcal urethritis which gradually increased. CONCLUSION: Nongonococcal urethritis, trichomoniasis, and gonococcal urethritis were the most commonly reported STIs in SA. Even though the incidence of STIs in SA is limited, appropriate preventive strategies that conform to the Islamic rules and values are essential and should be of highest priority for policymakers because of the potential of such infections to spread particularly among the youth

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to South Atlantic freshwater anomalies

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic. <br/

The GAIA theory: from Lovelock to Margulis. From a homeostatic to a cognitive autopoietic worldview

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Evolutionary connectionism: algorithmic principles underlying the evolution of biological organisation in evo-devo, evo-eco and evolutionary transitions

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term “evolutionary connectionism” to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwaterforcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters

The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change

Observations show a significant intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, the prevailing winds between the latitudes of 30° and 60° S, over the past decades. A continuation of this intensification trend is projected by climate scenarios for the twenty-first century. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean to changes in wind stress and surface buoyancy fluxes is under debate. Here we analyse the Argo network of profiling floats and historical oceanographic data to detect coherent hemispheric-scale warming and freshening trends that extend to depths of more than 1,000 m. The warming and freshening is partly related to changes in the properties of the water masses that make up the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which are consistent with the anthropogenic changes in heat and freshwater fluxes suggested by climate models. However, we detect no increase in the tilt of the surfaces of equal density across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in contrast to coarse-resolution model studies. Our results imply that the transport in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and meridional overturning in the Southern Ocean are insensitive to decadal changes in wind stress

Evidence for functional state transitions in intensively-managed soil ecosystems

Soils are fundamental to terrestrial ecosystem functioning and food security, thus their resilience to disturbances is critical. Furthermore, they provide effective models of complex natural systems to explore resilience concepts over experimentally-tractable short timescales. We studied soils derived from experimental plots with different land-use histories of long-term grass, arable and fallow to determine whether regimes of extreme drying and re-wetting would tip the systems into alternative stable states, contingent on their historical management. Prior to disturbance, grass and arable soils produced similar respiration responses when processing an introduced complex carbon substrate. A distinct respiration response from fallow soil here indicated a different prior functional state. Initial dry:wet disturbances reduced the respiration in all soils, suggesting that the microbial community was perturbed such that its function was impaired. After 12 drying and rewetting cycles, despite the extreme disturbance regime, soil from the grass plots, and those that had recently been grass, adapted and returned to their prior functional state. Arable soils were less resilient and shifted towards a functional state more similar to that of the fallow soil. Hence repeated stresses can apparently induce persistent shifts in functional states in soils, which are influenced by management history