Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse

International audienc

Estimation of Resilience Parameters Following LPS Injection Based on Activity Measured With Computer Vision

Resilience could be referred to as the animal’s ability to successfully adapt to a challenge. This is typically displayed by a quick return to initial metabolic or activity levels and behaviors. Pigs have distinct diurnal activity patterns. Deviations from these patterns could potentially be utilized to quantify resilience. However, human observations of activity are labor intensive and not feasible in practice on a large scale. In this study, we show the use of a computer vision tracking algorithm to quantify resilience based on activity individual patterns following a lipopolysaccharide (LPS) challenge, which induced a sickness response. We followed 121 individual pigs housed in barren or enriched housing systems, as previous work suggests an impact of housing on resilience, for eight days. The enriched housing consisted of delayed weaning in a group farrowing system and extra space compared with the barren pens and environmental enrichment. Enriched housed pigs were more active pre-injection of LPS, especially during peak activity times, than barren housed pigs (49.4 ± 9.9 vs. 39.1 ± 5.0 meter/hour). Four pigs per pen received an LPS injection and two pigs a saline injection. LPS injected animals were more likely to show a dip in activity than controls (86% vs 17%). Duration and Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the dip were not affected by housing. However, pigs with the same AUC could have a long and shallow dip or a steep and short dip. Therefore the AUC:duration ratio was calculated, and enriched housed pigs had a higher AUC:duration ratio compared to barren housed pigs (9244.1 ± 5429.8 vs 5919.6 ± 4566.1). Enriched housed pigs might therefore have a different strategy to cope with an LPS sickness challenge. However, more research on this strategy and the use of activity to quantify resilience and its relationship to physiological parameters is therefore needed

Resilience of Alternative States in Spatially Extended Ecosystems

Alternative stable states in ecology have been well studied in isolated, well-mixed systems. However, in reality, most ecosystems exist on spatially extended landscapes. Applying existing theory from dynamic systems, we explore how such a spatial setting should be expected to affect ecological resilience. We focus on the effect of local disturbances, defining resilience as the size of the area of a strong local disturbance needed to trigger a shift. We show that in contrast to well-mixed systems, resilience in a homogeneous spatial setting does not decrease gradually as a bifurcation point is approached. Instead, as an environmental driver changes, the present dominant state remains virtually ‘indestructible’, until at a critical point (the Maxwell point) its resilience drops sharply in the sense that even a very local disturbance can cause a domino effect leading eventually to a landscape-wide shift to the alternative state. Close to this Maxwell point the travelling wave moves very slow. Under these conditions both states have a comparable resilience, allowing long transient co-occurrence of alternative states side-by-side, and also permanent co-existence if there are mild spatial barriers. Overall however, hysteresis may mostly disappear in a spatial context as one of both alternative states will always tend to be dominant. Our results imply that local restoration efforts on a homogeneous landscape will typically either fail or trigger a landscape-wide transition. For extensive biomes with alternative stable states, such as tundra, steppe and forest, our results imply that, as climatic change reduces the stability, the effect might be difficult to detect until a point where local disturbances inevitably induce a spatial cascade to the alternative state

How to conceptualize and operationalize resilience in socio-ecological systems?

In various scientific disciplines resilience has become a key concept for theoretical frameworks and more practical goals. The growing interest resulted in multiple definitions of resilience. This paper highlights how and why resilience has become a meaningful concept guiding multiple disciplines to understand and govern social–ecological systems. Moreover, the concept of resilience can be operationalized in complex social–ecological systems that are inherent to change and unpredictable outcomes

Critical slowing down as a personalized early warning signal for depression (2015)

About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression