Another look at the relative importance of sectors and regions in determining property returns

This paper re-examines the relative importance of sector and regional effects in determining property returns. Using the largest property database currently available in the world, we decompose the returns on individual properties into a national effect, common to all properties, and a number of sector and regional factors. However, unlike previous studies, we categorise the individual property data into an ever-increasing number of property-types and regions, from a simple 3-by-3 classification, up to a 10 by 63 sector/region classification. In this way we can test the impact that a finer classification has on the sector and regional effects. We confirm the earlier findings of previous studies that sector-specific effects have a greater influence on property returns than regional effects. We also find that the impact of the sector effect is robust across different classifications of sectors and regions. Nonetheless, the more refined sector and regional partitions uncover some interesting sector and regional differences, which were obscured in previous studies. All of which has important implications for property portfolio construction and analysis

An Evaluation of Size-Resolved Cloud Microphysics Scheme Numerics for Use with Radar Observations. Part I: Collision-Coalescence

This study evaluates some available schemes designed to solve the stochastic collection equation (SCE) for collision-coalescence of hydrometeors using a size-resolved (bin) microphysics approach, and documents their numerical properties within the framework of a box model. Comparing three widely used SCE schemes, we find that all converge to almost identical solutions at sufficiently fine mass grids. However, one scheme converges far slower than the other two and shows pronounced numerical diffusion at the large-drop tail of the size distribution. One of the remaining two schemes is recommended on the basis that it is well-converged on a relatively coarse mass grid, stable for large time steps, strictly mass-conservative, and computationally efficient. To examine the effects of SCE scheme choice on simulating clouds and precipitation, two of the three schemes are compared in large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field. A forward simulator that produces Doppler spectra from the large-eddy simulation results is used to compare the model output directly with radar observations. The scheme with pronounced numerical diffusion predicts excessively large mean Doppler velocities and overly broad and negatively skewed spectra compared with observations, consistent with numerical diffusion demonstrated in the box model. Statistics obtained using the recommended scheme are closer to observations, but notable differences remain, indicating that factors other than SCE scheme accuracy are limiting simulation fidelity

Applying Graph Theory to Examine the Dynamics of Student Discussions in Small-Group Learning.

Group work in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics courses is an effective means of improving student outcomes, and many different factors can influence the dynamics of student discussions and, ultimately, the success of collaboration. The substance and dynamics of group discussions are commonly examined using qualitative methods such as discourse analysis. To complement existing work in the literature, we developed a quantitative methodology that uses graph theory to map the progression of talk-turns of discussions within a group. We observed groups of students working with peer facilitators to solve problems in biological sciences, with three iterations of data collection and two major refinements of graph theory calculations. Results include general behaviors based on the turns in which different individuals talk and graph theory parameters to quantify group characteristics. To demonstrate the potential utility of the methodology, we present case studies with distinct patterns: a centralized group in which the peer facilitator behaves like an authority figure, a decentralized group in which most students talk their fair share of turns, and a larger group with subgroups that have implications for equity, diversity, and inclusion. Together, these results demonstrate that our adaptation of graph theory is a viable quantitative methodology to examine group discussions

Zika Virus: Can Artificial Contraception Be Condoned?

As the Zika virus pandemic continues to bring worry and fear to health officials and medical scientists, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) have recommended that residents of the Zika-infected countries, e.g., Brazil, and those who have traveled to the area should delay having babies which may involve artificial contraceptive, particularly condom. This preventive policy, however, is seemingly at odds with the Roman Catholic Church’s position on the contraceptive. As least since the promulgation of Paul VI’s 1968 encyclical, Humanae Vitae, the Church has explicitly condemned artificial birth control as intrinsic evil. However, the current pontiff, Pope Francis, during his recent visit to Latin America, remarked that the use of artificial contraception may not be in contradiction to the teaching of Humanae Vitae while drawing a parallel between the current Zika Crisis and the 1960’s Belgian Congo Nun Controversy. The pope mentioned that the traditional ethical principle of the lesser of two evils may be the doctrine that justified the exceptions. The authors of this paper attempt to expand the theological rationale of the pope’s suggestion. In so doing, the authors rely on casuistical reasoning as an analytic tool that compares the Belgian Congo Nun case and the given Zika case, and suggest that the former is highly similar to, if not the same as, the latter in terms of normative moral feature. That is, in both cases the use of artificial contraception is theologically justified in reference to the criteria that the doctrine of the lesser of two evils requires. The authors wish that the paper would provide a solid theological-ethical ground based on which condom-use as the most immediate and effective preventive measure can be recommended in numerous Catholic hospitals as well as among Catholic communities in the world, particularly the most Zika-affected and largest Catholic community in the world, Brazil – 123 million present Brazilian citizens are reported to be Roman Catholic

Dynamics of methane ebullition from a peat monolith revealed from a dynamic flux chamber system

Methane (CH4) ebullition in northern peatlands is poorly quantified in part due to its high spatiotemporal variability. In this study, a dynamic flux chamber (DFC) system was used to continuously measure CH4 fluxes from a monolith of near‐surface Sphagnum peat at the laboratory scale to understand the complex behavior of CH4 ebullition. Coincident transmission ground penetrating radar measurements of gas content were also acquired at three depths within the monolith. A graphical method was developed to separate diffusion, steady ebullition, and episodic ebullition fluxes from the total CH4 flux recorded and to identify the timing and CH4 content of individual ebullition events. The results show that the application of the DFC had minimal disturbance on air‐peat CH4 exchange and estimated ebullition fluxes were not sensitive to the uncertainties associated with the graphical model. Steady and episodic ebullition fluxes were estimated to be averagely 36 ± 24% and 38 ± 24% of the total fluxes over the study period, respectively. The coupling between episodic CH4 ebullition and gas content within the three layers supports the existence of a threshold gas content regulating CH4 ebullition. However, the threshold at which active ebullition commenced varied between peat layers with a larger threshold (0.14 m3 m−3) observed in the deeper layers, suggesting that the peat physical structure controls gas bubble dynamics in peat. Temperature variation (23°C to 27°C) was likely only responsible for small episodic ebullition events from the upper peat layer, while large ebullition events from the deeper layers were most likely triggered by drops in atmospheric pressure

Investigating Peatland Stratigraphy and Hydrogeology Using Integrated Electrical Geophysics

Hydrology has been suggested as the mechanism controlling vegetation and related surficial pore-water chemistry in large peatlands. Peatland hydrology influences the carbon dynamics within these large carbon reservoirs and will influence their response to global warming. A geophysical survey was completed in Caribou Bog, a large peatland in Maine, to evaluate peatland stratigraphy and hydrology. Geophysical measurements were integrated with direct measurements of peat stratigraphy from probing, fluid chemistry, and vegetation patterns in the peatland. Consistent with previous field studies, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) was an excellent method for delineating peatland stratigraphy. Prominent reflectors from the peat-lake sediment and lake sediment-mineral soil contacts were precisely recorded up to 8 m deep. Two-dimensional resistivity and induced polarization imaging were used to investigate stratigraphy beneath the mineral soil, beyond the range of GPR. We observe that the peat is chargeable, and that IP imaging is an alternative method for defining peat thickness. The chargeability of peat is attributed to the high surface-charge density on partially decomposed organic matter. The electrical conductivity imaging resolved glaciomarine sediment thickness (a confining layer) and its variability across the basin. Comparison of the bulk conductivity images with peatland vegetation revealed a correlation between confining layer thickness and dominant vegetation type, suggesting that stratigraphy exerts a control on hydrogeology and vegetation distribution within this peatland. Terrain conductivity measured with a Geonics EM31 meter correlated with confining glaciomarine sediment thickness and was an effective method for estimating variability in glaciomarine sediment thickness over approximately 18 km(2). Our understanding of the hydrogeology, stratigraphy, and controls on vegetation growth in this peatland was much enhanced from the geophysical study

Development of a composite model derived from cardiopulmonary exercise tests to predict mortality risk in patients with mild-to-moderate heart failure

Objective: Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is used to predict outcome in patients with mild-to-moderate heart failure (HF). Single CPET-derived variables are often used, but we wanted to see if a composite score achieved better predictive power. Methods: Retrospective analysis of patient records at the Department of Cardiology, Castle Hill Hospital, Kingston-upon-Hull. 387 patients [median (25th-75th percentile)] [age 65 (56-72) years; 79% males; LVEF 34 (31-37) %] were included. Patients underwent a symptomlimited, maximal CPET on a treadmill. During a median follow up of 8.6 ± 2.1 years in survivors, 107 patients died. Survival models were built and validated using a hybrid approach between the bootstrap and Cox regression. Nine CPET-derived variables were included. Z-score defined each variable's predictive strength. Model coefficients were converted to a risk score. Results: Four CPET-related variables were independent predictors of all-cause mortality in the survival model: the presence of exertional oscillatory ventilation (EOV), increasing slope of the relation between ventilation and carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2 slope), decreasing oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), and an increase in the lowest ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide (VEqCO2 nadir). Individual predictors of mortality ranged from 0.60 to 0.71 using Harrell’s C-statistic, but the optimal combination of EOV + VE/VCO2 slope + OUES + VEqCO2 nadir reached 0.75. The Hull CPET risk score had a significantly higher area under the curve (0.78) when compared to the Heart Failure Survival Score (AUC=0.70;