Statistics for evidence-based policy in the Church of England : predicting diocesan performance

This study computed the percentage changes recorded on six separate performance indicators between 1991 and 2000 in order to calculate the effect of the Decade of Evangelism on the mainland dioceses of the Church of England. The performance indicators were usual Sunday attendance, Easter Sunday communicants, Christmas communicants, electoral roll membership, total baptism figures, and total confirmation figures. Statistical procedures (including cluster analysis, analysis of variance, canonical correlation analysis, and multiple regression) were then employed in order to identify from the range of variables routinely collected by the central church authorities policy-related factors associated with church growth (or at least reduced decline) over this period. These analyses identified four areas, concerned with expanding non-stipendiary ministry, with encouraging the ordination of women, with resisting church closure, and with promoting a financial policy that includes planned subscriptions and charitable giving. These conclusions are offered as an applied example of using statistics as a tool for mission and as the basis for evidence-based policy

Use of crushed brick in reinforced earth railway structures

The Bermondsey Dive-Under Scheme is a key part of the Thameslink Programme which will remove the existing bottleneck that severely limits the number of trains that can pass through London Bridge Station. The scheme involves extensive demolition of 900m of masonry viaduct followed by the construction of 900m of new structures, 200m of reinforced earth structures, and 200m of embankment widening and raising. This paper describes a study undertaken in 2012 that examined the viability of recycling the demolished brickwork material into a crushed engineered fill material for use in the permanent works. The overarching objective of the study was to seek to reduce the significant volumes of both imported fill and exported demolition material that would be required for the BDU scheme. In addition to the associated sustainability benefits, the significant reduction in lorry movements from London’s congested streets would result in significant environmental and safety benefits. The paper details the sampling and testing of brickwork that was undertaken as part of the study and presents the findings from the study. A synopsis of the properties of the crushed brick and the material requirements for engineered fill is included. The paper also discusses some of the issues associated with introducing innovation within major works programmes. The Bermondsey Dive Under Scheme is currently under construction and is scheduled for completion in 2017.</p

Modelling and control of a hybrid electric propulsion system for unmanned aerial vehicles

This paper presents the modelling and control of a hybrid electric propulsion system designed for unmanned aerial vehicles. The work is carried out as part of the AIRSTART project in collaboration with Rotron Power Ltd. Firstly, the entire parallel hybrid powertrain is divided into two powertrains to facilitate the modelling and control. Following this, an engine model is built to predict the dynamics between the throttle request and the resulting output. It is then validated by comparing with experimental data. On the basis of d-q model of the motor/generator, a good estimation of torque loss at steady state is achieved using the efficiency map. Next, a rule-based controller is designed to achieve the best fuel consumption by regulating the engine to operating around its ideal operating line. Following the integration of the models and controller, the component behaviour and control logic are verified via the final simulation. By enabling the engine to operate at its best fuel economy condition, the hybrid propulsion system developed in this research can save at least 7% on fuel consumption when compared with an internal combustion engine powered aircraft

The clinical and cost-effectiveness of a Victim Improvement Package (VIP) for the reduction of chronic symptoms of depression or anxiety in older victims of common crime (the VIP trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Older people are vulnerable to sustained high levels of psychosocial distress following a crime. A cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT)-informed psychological therapy, the Victim Improvement Package (VIP) may aid recovery. The VIP trial aims to test the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the VIP for alleviating depressive and anxiety symptoms in older victims of crime. METHODS/DESIGN: People aged 65 years or more who report being a victim of crime will be screened by Metropolitan Police Service Safer Neighbourhood Teams within a month of the crime for distress using the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 and the Generalised Anxiety Disorder-2. Those who screen positive will be signposted to their GP for assistance, and re-screened at 3 months. Participants who screen positive for depression and/or anxiety at re-screening are randomised to a CBT informed VIP added to treatment as usual (TAU) compared to TAU alone. The intervention consists of 10 individual 1-h sessions, delivered weekly by therapists from the mental health charity Mind. The primary outcome measure is the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), used as a composite measure, assessed at 6 months after the crime (post therapy) with a 9-month post-crime follow-up. Secondary outcome measures include the EQ-5D, and a modified Client Service Receipt Inventory. A total of 226 participants will be randomised VIP:TAU with a ratio 1:1, in order to detect a standardised difference of at least 0.5 between groups, using a mixed-effects linear-regression model with 90% power and a 5% significance level (adjusting for therapist clustering and potential drop-out). A cost-effectiveness analysis will incorporate intervention costs to compare overall health care costs and quality of life years between treatment arms. An embedded study will examine the impact of past trauma and engagement in safety behaviours and distress on the main outcomes. DISCUSSION: This trial should provide data on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a CBT-informed psychological therapy for older victims of crime with anxiety and/or depressive symptoms and should demonstrate a model of integrated cross-agency working. Our findings should provide evidence for policy-makers, commissioners and clinicians responding to the needs of older victims of crime. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number, ID: ISRCTN16929670. Registered on 3 August 2016

The Underwood Project : A Virtual Environment for Eliciting Ambiguous Threat

Threatening environments can be unpredictable in many different ways. The nature of threats, their timing, and their locations in a scene can all be uncertain, even when one is acutely aware of being at risk. Prior research demonstrates that both temporal unpredictability and spatial uncertainty of threats elicit a distinctly anxious psychological response. In the paradigm presented here, we further explore other facets of ambiguous threat via an environment in which there are no concrete threats, predictable or otherwise, but which nevertheless elicits a building sense of danger. By incorporating both psychological research and principles of emotional game design, we constructed this world and then tested its effects in three studies. In line with our goals, participants experienced the environment as creepy and unpredictable. Their subjective and physiological response to the world rose and fell in line with the presentation of ambiguously threatening ambient cues. Exploratory analyses further suggest that this ambiguously threatening experience influenced memory for the virtual world and its underlying narrative. Together the data demonstrate that naturalistic virtual worlds can effectively elicit a multifaceted experience of ambiguous threat with subjective and cognitive consequences

False Vacuum Inflation with a Quartic Potential

We consider a variant of Hybrid Inflation, where inflation is driven by two interacting scalar fields, one of which has a `Mexican hat' potential and the other a quartic potential. Given the appropriate initial conditions one of the fields can be trapped in a false vacuum state, supported by couplings to the other field. The energy of this vacuum can be used to drive inflation, which ends when the vacuum decays to one of its true minima. Depending on parameters, it is possible for inflation to proceed via two separate epochs, with the potential temporarily steepening sufficiently to suspend inflation. We use numerical simulations to analyse the possibilities, and emphasise the shortcomings of the slow-roll approximation for analysing this scenario. We also calculate the density perturbations produced, which can have a spectral index greater than one.Comment: 10 pages, RevTeX 3.0, no figure

PROPEL: implementation of an evidence based pelvic floor muscle training intervention for women with pelvic organ prolapse: a realist evaluation and outcomes study protocol

Abstract Background Pelvic Organ Prolapse (POP) is estimated to affect 41%–50% of women aged over 40. Findings from the multi-centre randomised controlled “Pelvic Organ Prolapse PhysiotherapY” (POPPY) trial showed that individualised pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) was effective in reducing symptoms of prolapse, improved quality of life and showed clear potential to be cost-effective. However, provision of PFMT for prolapse continues to vary across the UK, with limited numbers of women’s health physiotherapists specialising in its delivery. Implementation of this robust evidence from the POPPY trial will require attention to different models of delivery (e.g. staff skill mix) to fit with differing care environments. Methods A Realist Evaluation (RE) of implementation and outcomes of PFMT delivery in contrasting NHS settings will be conducted using multiple case study sites. Involving substantial local stakeholder engagement will permit a detailed exploration of how local sites make decisions on how to deliver PFMT and how these lead to service change. The RE will track how implementation is working; identify what influences outcomes; and, guided by the RE-AIM framework, will collect robust outcomes data. This will require mixed methods data collection and analysis. Qualitative data will be collected at four time-points across each site to understand local contexts and decisions regarding options for intervention delivery and to monitor implementation, uptake, adherence and outcomes. Patient outcome data will be collected at baseline, six months and one year follow-up for 120 women. Primary outcome will be the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score (POP-SS). An economic evaluation will assess the costs and benefits associated with different delivery models taking account of further health care resource use by the women. Cost data will be combined with the primary outcome in a cost effectiveness analysis, and the EQ-5D-5L data in a cost utility analysis for each of the different models of delivery. Discussion Study of the implementation of varying models of service delivery of PFMT across contrasting sites combined with outcomes data and a cost effectiveness analysis will provide insight into the implementation and value of different models of PFMT service delivery and the cost benefits to the NHS in the longer term

Conditions for Successful Extended Inflation

We investigate, in a model-independent way, the conditions required to obtain a satisfactory model of extended inflation in which inflation is brought to an end by a first-order phase transition. The constraints are that the correct present strength of the gravitational coupling is obtained, that the present theory of gravity is satisfactorily close to general relativity, that the perturbation spectra from inflation are compatible with large scale structure observations and that the bubble spectrum produced at the phase transition doesn't conflict with the observed level of microwave background anisotropies. We demonstrate that these constraints can be summarized in terms of the behaviour in the conformally related Einstein frame, and can be compactly illustrated graphically. We confirm the failure of existing models including the original extended inflation model, and construct models, albeit rather contrived ones, which satisfy all existing constraints.Comment: 8 pages RevTeX file with one figure incorporated (uses RevTeX and epsf). Also available by e-mailing ARL, or by WWW at http://star-www.maps.susx.ac.uk/papers/infcos_papers.html; Revised to include extra references, results unchanged, to appear Phys Rev

Extended Inflation with a Curvature-Coupled Inflaton

We examine extended inflation models enhanced by the addition of a coupling between the inflaton field and the space-time curvature. We examine two types of model, where the underlying inflaton potential takes on second-order and first-order form respectively. One aim is to provide models which satisfy the solar system constraints on the Brans--Dicke parameter $\omega$. This constraint has proven very problematic in previous extended inflation models, and we find circumstances where it can be successfully evaded, though the constraint must be carefully assessed in our model and can be much stronger than the usual $\omega > 500$. In the simplest versions of the model, one may avoid the need to introduce a mass for the Brans--Dicke field in order to ensure that it takes on the correct value at the present epoch, as seems to be required in hyperextended inflation. We also briefly discuss aspects of the formation of topological defects in the inflaton field itself.Comment: 24 pages, LaTeX (no figures), to appear, Physical Review D, mishandling of the solar system constraint on extended gravity theories corrected, SUSSEX-AST 93/6-