Spatio-Temporal Low Count Processes with Application to Violent Crime Events

There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited by violent crimes in order to make such predictions. The temporal variation of crimes typically follows patterns familiar in time series analysis, but the spatial patterns are irregular and do not vary smoothly across the area. Instead we find that spatially disjoint regions exhibit correlated crime patterns. It is this indeterminate inter-region correlation structure along with the low-count, discrete nature of counts of serious crimes that motivates our proposed forecasting tool. In particular, we propose to model the crime counts in each region using an integer-valued first order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly discover a clustering of these region-specific time series. We then describe how to account for covariates within this framework. Both approaches adjust for seasonality. We demonstrate our approach through an analysis of weekly reported violent crimes in Washington, D.C. between 2001-2008. Our forecasts outperform standard methods while additionally providing useful tools such as prediction intervals

Extragalactic Radio Sources and the WMAP Cold Spot

We detect a dip of 20-45% in the surface brightness and number counts of NVSS sources smoothed to a few degrees at the location of the WMAP cold spot. The dip has structure on scales of approximately 1-10 degrees. Together with independent all-sky wavelet analyses, our results suggest that the dip in extragalactic brightness and number counts and the WMAP cold spot are physically related, i.e., that the coincidence is neither a statistical anomaly nor a WMAP foreground correction problem. If the cold spot does originate from structures at modest redshifts, as we suggest, then there is no remaining need for non-Gaussian processes at the last scattering surface of the CMB to explain the cold spot. The late integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect, already seen statistically for NVSS source counts, can now be seen to operate on a single region. To create the magnitude and angular size of the WMAP cold spot requires a ~140 Mpc radius completely empty void at z<=1 along this line of sight. This is far outside the current expectations of the concordance cosmology, and adds to the anomalies seen in the CMB.Comment: revised version, ApJ, in pres

Influence network linkages across implementation strategy conditions in a randomized controlled trial of two strategies for scaling up evidence-based practices in public youth-serving systems.

BackgroundGiven the importance of influence networks in the implementation of evidence-based practices and interventions, it is unclear whether such networks continue to operate as sources of information and advice when they are segmented and disrupted by randomization to different implementation strategy conditions. The present study examines the linkages across implementation strategy conditions of social influence networks of leaders of youth-serving systems in 12 California counties participating in a randomized controlled trial of community development teams (CDTs) to scale up use of an evidence-based practice.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 directors, assistant directors, and program managers of county probation, mental health, and child welfare departments. A web-based survey collected additional quantitative data on information and advice networks of study participants. A mixed-methods approach to data analysis was used to create a sociometric data set (n = 176) to examine linkages between treatment and standard conditions.ResultsOf those network members who were affiliated with a county (n = 137), only 6 (4.4%) were directly connected to a member of the opposite implementation strategy condition; 19 (13.9%) were connected by two steps or fewer to a member of the opposite implementation strategy condition; 64 (46.7%) were connected by three or fewer steps to a member of the opposite implementation strategy condition. Most of the indirect steps between individuals who were in different implementation strategy conditions were connections involving a third non-county organizational entity that had an important role in the trial in keeping the implementation strategy conditions separate. When these entities were excluded, the CDT network exhibited fewer components and significantly higher betweenness centralization than did the standard condition network.ConclusionAlthough the integrity of the RCT in this instance was not compromised by study participant influence networks, RCT designs should consider how influence networks may extend beyond boundaries established by the randomization process in implementation studies.Trial registrationNCT00880126

Assessment by finite element analysis of the impact of osteoporosis and osteoarthritis on hip resurfacing

Hip resurfacing is proposed as an alternative to total hip replacement (THR) for treatment of osteoarthritis (OA), especially for younger, heavier and more active sufferers. There is however, concern with regards to the incidence of post operative femoral neck fractures. We have investigated, with finite element models, the changes in stress and strain in the femoral neck following hip resurfacing. We have included several different bone material property values representing normal, elderly, osteoarthritic and osteoporotic bone. We have also modelled two different hip implant orientations. We have shown that hip resurfacing may increase the magnitude of stress and strain in the femoral neck, especially in osteoporotic bone. We have also shown that the superolateral offset associated with the valgus orientation, not the valgus orientation itself, may be what reduces the stress and strain in the neck and leads to lower incidence of fracture

Statistical Inference After Model Selection

Conventional statistical inference requires that a model of how the data were generated be known before the data are analyzed. Yet in criminology, and in the social sciences more broadly, a variety of model selection procedures are routinely undertaken followed by statistical tests and confidence intervals computed for a “final” model. In this paper, we examine such practices and show how they are typically misguided. The parameters being estimated are no longer well defined, and post-model-selection sampling distributions are mixtures with properties that are very different from what is conventionally assumed. Confidence intervals and statistical tests do not perform as they should. We examine in some detail the specific mechanisms responsible. We also offer some suggestions for better practice and show though a criminal justice example using real data how proper statistical inference in principle may be obtained

Pathogenic, Molecular, and Immunological Properties of a Virus Associated with Sea Turtle Fibropapillomatosis. Phase II : Viral Pathogenesis and Development of Diagnostic Assays

Research conducted under this RWO from July 1, 1997 through June 30, 2000 has provided important new information about the pathogenesis, virology, and immunology of marine turtle fibropapillomatosis. In particular, we have provided strong evidence for the association of a herpesvirus with fibropapillomatosis of the green turtle,Chelonia mydas, and the loggerhead turtle, Caretta caretta, in Florida. In addition we have provided new evidence for the absence of papillomaviruses from sea turtle fibropapillomas. Although unsuccessful, important new attempts were made to cultivate the FP-associated herpesvirus in vitro in collaboration with the National Wildlife Health Center. During this period of time, we completed publication of the first comprehensive description of the comparative pathology and pathogenesis of experimentally induced and spontaneous fibropapillomas of green turtles (Chelonia mydas). We initiated innovative studies on the persistence of a Chelonian herpesviruses in the marine environment demonstrating for the first time that the environmental survivability of Chelonian herpesviruses makes them real threats to marine turtle health. Finally, we explored development of a serological assay for FP using synthetic herpesvirus peptides and developed methodologies for detection of antibodies to LETV [Iung-eye-trachea virus] a disease-associated herpesvirus of the green turtle, Chelonia mydas.. This last initiative is ongoing and will further our efforts to develop specific immunological assays for the FP-associated herpesvirus and FP. (17 page document

SDSS J013655.91+242546.0 - an A-type hyper-velocity star from the outskirts of the Galaxy

Hyper-velocity stars (HVS) are moving so fast that they are unbound to the Galaxy. Dynamical ejection by a supermassive black hole is favoured to explain their origin. Locating the place of birth of an individual HVS is of utmost importance to understanding the ejection mechanism. SDSS J013655.91+242546.0 (J0136+2425 for short) was found amongst three high-velocity stars (drawn from a sample of more than 10000 blue stars), for which proper motions were measured. A kinematical as well as a quantitative NLTE spectral analysis was performed. When combined with the radial velocity (RV) and the spectroscopic distance, the trajectory of the star in the Galactic potential was reconstructed. J0136+2425 is found to be an A-type main-sequence star travelling at $\approx$590 \kms, possibly unbound to the Galaxy and originating in the outer Galactic rim nowhere near the Galactic centre. J0136+2425 is the second HVS candidate with measured proper motion, besides the massive B star HD 271791, and also the second for which its proper motion excludes a Galactic centre origin and, hence, the SMBH slingshot mechanism. Most known HVS are late B-type stars of about 3 M$_\odot$. With a mass of 2.45 M$_\odot$, J0136+2425 resembles a typical HVS far more than HD 271791 does. Hence, this is the first time that a typical HVS is found not to originate in the Galactic centre. Its ejection velocity from the disk is so high (550 \kms) that the extreme supernova binary scenario proposed for HD 271791 is very unlikely.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Shwartzman reaction after human renal homotransplantation.

In three human recipients, five renal homografts were destroyed within a few minutes to hours after their revascularization in the new host. The kidneys, removed one to 54 days later, had cortical necrosis. The major vessels were patent, but the arterioles and glomeruli were the site of fibrin deposition. There was little or no fixation of host immunoglobulins in the homografts. The findings were characteristic of a generalized Shwartzman reaction. Although the cause (or causes) of the Shwartzman reaction in our patients is not known, they may have been conditioned by the bacterial contamination and hemolysis that often attend hemodialysis, by immunosuppression and by the transplantation itself. Some of the patients have preformed lymphocytotoxic antibodies. Thus, certain patients may be predisposed. High-risk patients should be recognized and treated prophylactically with anticoagulants