Exploring the Use of Radar for Physically-Based Nowcasting of Lightning Cessation

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. This project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically-based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms driven primarily by trending in the actual total lightning flash rate, we believe that dual polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and ice-microphysics. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can propagation phase-based ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the NASA-MSFC North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. Thus far our case study results suggest that the negative differential phase shift signature weakens and disappears after the analyzed storms ceased lightning production (i.e., after the last lightning flash occurred). This is a key observation because it suggests that while strong electric fields may still have been present, the lightning cessation signature was encompassed in the period of the polarimetric negative phase shift signature. To the extent this behavior is repeatable in other cases, even if only in a substantial fraction of those cases, the analysis suggests that differential propagation phase may prove to be a useful parameter for future lightning cessation algorithms. Indeed, a preliminary analysis of 15+ cases has shown additional indications of the weakening and disappearance of this ice alignment signature with lightning cessation. A summary of these case-study results is presented

Exploring the Use of Radar for a Physically Based Lightning Cessation Nowcasting Tool

NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. This project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms, we believe that dual-polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and hydrometeors. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can these ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the NASA-MSFC North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. Thus far, our case study results suggest that the negative differential phase shift signature weakens and disappears after the analyzed storms ceased lightning production (i.e., after the last lightning flash occurred). This is a key observation because it suggests that while strong electric fields may still have been present, the lightning cessation signature encompassed the period of the polarimetric negative phase shift signature. To the extent this behavior is repeatable in other cases, even if only in a substantial fraction of those cases, the case analyses suggests that differential propagation phase may prove to be a useful parameter for future lightning cessation algorithms. Indeed, analysis of 15+ cases has shown additional indications of the weakening and disappearance of this ice alignment signature with lightning cessation. A summary of results will be presented

Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps Versus Non-Jump Increases in Total Flash Rate

Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume greater than or equal to 10 m(sup -1) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other non-jump increases in total ash rate. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Rank Sum testing yields p-values 0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and non-jump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and non-jump increases in total ash rate. The p-value for graupel mass change is p=0.096, so jump and non-jump distributions for graupel mass change are not found statistically independent using the p=0.05 significance level. Timing of updraft volume, speed and graupel mass increases are found to be 4 to 13 minutes in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller non-jump increases in total ash rate

Automated Storm Tracking and the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy Data

This study develops a fully automated lightning jump system encompassing objective storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data, and the lightning jump algorithm (LJA), which are important elements in the transition of the LJA concept from a research to an operational based algorithm. Storm cluster tracking is based on a product created from the combination of a radar parameter (vertically integrated liquid, VIL), and lightning information (flash rate density). Evaluations showed that the spatial scale of tracked features or storm clusters had a large impact on the lightning jump system performance, where increasing spatial scale size resulted in decreased dynamic range of the system's performance. This framework will also serve as a means to refine the LJA itself to enhance its operational applicability. Parameters within the system are isolated and the system's performance is evaluated with adjustments to parameter sensitivity. The system's performance is evaluated using the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. Of the algorithm parameters tested, sigma-level (metric of lightning jump strength) and flash rate threshold influenced the system's performance the most. Finally, verification methodologies are investigated. It is discovered that minor changes in verification methodology can dramatically impact the evaluation of the lightning jump system

Social Psychology of Public Defenders: A Qualitative Study

The right to an attorney is a one to which all U.S. citizens are entitled, in conjunction with the constitution\u27s sixth amendment. Difficulty arose when people who were unable to provide necessary funds to hire a lawyer and, subsequently, went into trial pro se. Resolution was met with the creation of the public defense system -- a system which is unfortunately understudied, and sometimes regarded in a negative light, including a negative perception that public defense is a broken system. This belief sometimes bleeds into the minds of potential clients who may believe a public defender is not sufficiently competent to represent them. The present qualitative research study reports the perspectives of public defenders, from their own vantage points and perspectives. We interviewed 22 public defenders (Male = 13, Female = 9) from three counties in Southwest Ohio. The public defenders reflected on their respective viewpoints, from when they first started in this career path, with their current perspectives. In our initial findings, motivations for becoming a public defender seem to fall under one of three categories: a desire for justice and a strong belief in the Constitution, a desire to help people who are less fortunate, or a desire for a steady paycheck. While many positives came forth through in the interviews, struggles of the career of a public defender also seemed to appear. These include low pay and a small budget for cases, a lack of time for each case because of a heavy caseload, and the perception of incompetence and indifference that their clients come in with

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process

Insight into the Physical and Dynamical Processes that Control Rapid Increases in Total Flash Rate

No abstract availabl

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

Objective: To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud [IC] vs. cloud-to-ground [CG] ) and extent. Data and Methodology: a) NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. b) LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles (Koshak et al. 2012). c) LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler (DD) and polarimetric radar analyses of UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, Cband, polarimetric) and KHTX (S-band, Doppler)

Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Flash Rate over Northern Alabama

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to examine the relationship between deep convection and the production of nitrogen oxides (NO (sub x)) via lightning (LNO (sub x)). A critical step in estimating LNO (sub x) production in a cloud-resolving model (CRM) without explicit lightning is to estimate the flash rate from available model parameters that are statistically and physically correlated. As such, the objective of this study is to develop, improve and evaluate lightning flash rate parameterizations in a variety of meteorological environments and storm types using radar and lightning mapping array (LMA) observations taken over Northern Alabama from 2005-2012, including during DC3. UAH's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) and the Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR 88D) located at Hytop (KHTX) comprises the dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar network, which has been in operation since 2004. The northern Alabama LMA (NA LMA) in conjunction with Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) allow for a detailed depiction of total lightning during this period. This study will integrate ARMOR-KHTX dual Doppler/polarimetric radar and NA LMA lightning observations from past and ongoing studies, including the more recent DC3 results, over northern Alabama to form a large data set of 15-20 case days and over 20 individual storms, including both ordinary multicell and supercell convection. Several flash rate parameterizations will be developed and tested, including those based on 1) graupel/small hail volume; 2) graupel/small hail mass, and 3) convective updraft volume. Sensitivity of the flash rate parameterizations to storm intensity, storm morphology and environmental conditions will be explored