Analysis of the French gasoline market since the deregulation of prices: Cahiers du CEG, n° 12

in this paper, we have investigated the behaviour of gasoline prices in France over the period1980-1990. We have established that the price liberalisation measures introduced in 1985 were successfull inintegrating the domestlc market to the European one, but the process of integration is still in progress. Thebehaviour of the Tax Authorities did not inhibit price flexibility with final gasoline prices respondingsymmetrically to international gasoline price changes

The OURSE model: Simulating the World Refining Sector to 2030

The development of a model of the World Refining for the POLES model ( Contract n°151559-2009 A08 FR – with the Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of Commission of the European Communities) aims to represent the oil product's supply at a world-wide level in a global energy model. The World oil refining industry faces to several challenges such as the increasing oil derivatives demand in the transport sector, the improvement of the specifications of these products, the crude oil availability and the limitation of carbon emissions. An aggregated refining model linked to the POLES energy model has been developed to study these questions. The OURSE (Oil is Used in Refineries to Supply Energy) model is a world-wide aggregated refining model which is designed to simulate the world oil product supply for the POLES (Prospective Outlook for the Long-term Energy System) model. OURSE is able to simulate the impact on the world refining industry of changes in the crude oil supply (in costs and qualities) as well as in the oil product demand (in terms of level, structure and specifications). OURSE also enables to assess the consequences of a carbon emission regulation (caps and taxes) as the adoption of various kinds of alternative fuel policies. More precisely, these impacts are evaluated as regards the world refining structure (investments), but also its balance (production and trade of petroleum products), its pollutant emissions (CO2 and SO2) and its costs (of production, investments, etc.). Simulations for 2030 were performed. Thus, the paper presents the results of a prospective exercise for the oil refining industry which has been carried out with the worldwide refining model OURSE according to the oil product demand projections of European Commission for Europe with the PRIMES model (European Commission, 2010) and the IFP projections for the rest of the World.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Changements structurels dans un modèle économétrique de demande de carburant: Cahiers du CEG, n°9

Les changements observés dans b demande de carburant en France depuistrois décennies soulèvent le problème de l'évolution du comportement des consommateurset de sa prise en compte dans la modélisation économétrique. L'application dedifférents tests de stabilité temporelle des coefficients de régression -- Chow, Brown,Durbin et Evans, Farley et Hinich - est développée à partir d'un modèle d'ajustementpartiel. Ces tests mettent en évidence l'évolution progressive des paramètres liés aupouvoir d'achat (forte croissance suivie d'un ralentissement progressif) alors que l'effetprix est asymétrique suivant que ceux-ci varient à la hausse ou à la baisse. L'expertisecombinant à la fois l'induction statistique et. l'interprétation économique (loi d'Engel)permet d'améliorer la modélisation en y introduisant les modifications structurellesde la consommation. L'influence d'événements exceptionnels (crises pétrolières dansnotre cas), se traduisant par des points aberrants sur l'ajustement économétrique, estdiscutée. Enfin, plusieurs spécifications d'équations corrigeant la stabilité temporellesont comparées

Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions

This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defined as the efficiency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly influenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by definition from a finite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing

Climate-energy-water nexus in Brazilian oil refineries

International audienceOil refineries are major CO2 emitters and are usually located in water-stress sites. While some CO2 mitigation options can reduce water demand, others can increase it, and still others are neutral. By simulating two parametric models, one for all Brazilian refineries, and the other locally detailing the water balance of the country´s largest refinery, this study aimed to quantify the impacts of CO2 mitigation options on the water use of oil refineries. Findings show that, by pricing CO2 emissions up to 100 US$/tCO2, the list of mitigation options was able to abate 25% of the annual emissions in Brazilian refineries. A relevant share of this abatement derives from the implementation of carbon capture (CC) facilities in fluid catalytic cracking and hydrogen generation units. However, these CC facilities offset the co-benefits of other CO2 mitigation options that can reduce steam and cold-water requirements in refineries. In fact, for the largest Brazilian oil refinery, the implementation of all mitigation measures had almost no effect on its water balance. This means that CO2 abatement in refineries has no significant impact on water demand (no negative trade-off). However, this also means that the water stress in oil refineries should be dealt with measures not directly linked to CO2 abatement (no significant co-benefits)

Impacts of climate variability on the tuna economy of Seychelles

Many small island states have developed economies that are strongly dependent on tuna fisheries. Consequently, they are vulnerable to the socio-economic effects of climate change and variability, processes that are known to impact upon tuna fisheries distribution and productivity. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate oscillations on the tuna-dependent economy of Seychelles. Using a multiplier approach, the direct, indirect and induced economic effects of the tuna industry declined by 58%, 34% and 60%, respectively, in 1998, the year of a strong warming event in the western Indian Ocean. Patterns in tuna purse seine vessel expenditures in port were substantially modified by strong climate oscillations. A cointegration time-series model predicted that a 40% decline in tuna landings and transhipment in Port Victoria, a value commensurate with that observed in 1998, would result in a 34% loss for the local economy. Of several indices tested, the Indian Oscillation Index was the best at predicting the probability of entering a regime of low landings and transhipment. In 2007, a moderate climate anomaly was compounded by prior overfishing to produce a stronger that expected impact on the fishery and economy of Seychelles. The effects of fishing and climate variability on tuna stocks are complex and pose significant challenges for fisheries management and the economic development of countries in the Indian Ocean

Impacts of climate variability on the tuna economy of Seychelles

Many small island states have developed economies that are strongly dependent on tuna fisheries. Consequently, they are vulnerable to the socio-economic effects of climate change and variability, processes that are known to impact upon tuna fisheries distribution and productivity. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate oscillations on the tuna-dependent economy of Seychelles. Using a multiplier approach, the direct, indirect and induced economic effects of the tuna industry declined by 58%, 34% and 60%, respectively, in 1998, the year of a strong warming event in the western Indian Ocean. Patterns in tuna purse seine vessel expenditures in port were substantially modified by strong climate oscillations. A cointegration time-series model predicted that a 40% decline in tuna landings and transhipment in Port Victoria, a value commensurate with that observed in 1998, would result in a 34% loss for the local economy. Of several indices tested, the Indian Oscillation Index was the best at predicting the probability of entering a regime of low landings and transhipment. In 2007, a moderate climate anomaly was compounded by prior overfishing to produce a stronger that expected impact on the fishery and economy of Seychelles. The effects of fishing and climate variability on tuna stocks are complex and pose significant challenges for fisheries management and the economic development of countries in the Indian Ocean.

Standardized Whole-Blood Transcriptional Profiling Enables the Deconvolution of Complex Induced Immune Responses

SummarySystems approaches for the study of immune signaling pathways have been traditionally based on purified cells or cultured lines. However, in vivo responses involve the coordinated action of multiple cell types, which interact to establish an inflammatory microenvironment. We employed standardized whole-blood stimulation systems to test the hypothesis that responses to Toll-like receptor ligands or whole microbes can be defined by the transcriptional signatures of key cytokines. We found 44 genes, identified using Support Vector Machine learning, that captured the diversity of complex innate immune responses with improved segregation between distinct stimuli. Furthermore, we used donor variability to identify shared inter-cellular pathways and trace cytokine loops involved in gene expression. This provides strategies for dimension reduction of large datasets and deconvolution of innate immune responses applicable for characterizing immunomodulatory molecules. Moreover, we provide an interactive R-Shiny application with healthy donor reference values for induced inflammatory genes

Personal car, public transport and other alternatives? Predicting potential modal shifts frommultinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals: Cahiers de l'Economie, Série Recherche, n° 91

Households’ daily mobility in France is characterized by the preponderance of the automobile. Passengercars, mainly used by households but not only, are thus responsible for more than a half of fuel consumptions in road transport (CGDD/SOeS, July 2013) and more than a half of CO2 emissions in the transport sector (SOeS/CDC, December 2012). The main objective of this paper is thus to explain the modal choice of French households for their daily trips, particularly the importance of the car, and to predict potential shifts from personal car to public transport and other alternatives, especially shared car. An independent multinomial logit model is estimated and reveals the particular importance of car equipment on modal choices and specifically on car use. Predictions by 2020 are conducted according to three cases for the household’s motorization (no car, one car, two cars or more) and per different mobility profiles. Personal car should remain the main mode of transportation by 2020 except if households have no car. In that case, modal shares would be more balanced, public transport would become the main transport mode and the shift to shared car would be at a maximum. Modal share of shared car could thus reach 16% for “exclusive motorists”. A conditional logit model is also estimated and shows no particular importance of the means of transportation’s costs in the modal choices. These results show that the increase in distances between 2010 and 2020 makes motorized modes more necessary. Thus, personal car and public transport should remain the main modes of transportation by 2020. Moreover, expected changes in costs and travel time by 2020 does not seem to have any effect on the deployment of shared car, its modal share being constant (in an average) between 2010 and 2020