Linguistics

Contains reports on seven research projects.National Science Foundation (Grant G-16526)National Institutes of Health (Grant MH-04737-02)United States Air Force, Electronic Systems Division (Contract AF19(628)-2487

Responses of global waterbird populations to climate change vary with latitude

While climate change continues to present a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystems, most research on climate change impacts do not have the resolution to detect changes in species abundance and are often limited to temperate ecosystems. This limits our understanding of global responses in species abundance—a determinant of ecosystem function and services—to climate change including in the highly-biodiverse tropics. We address this knowledge gap by quantifying abundance responses to climate change in waterbirds, an indicator taxon of wetland biodiversity, at 6,822 sites between −55° and 64°. Using 1,303,651 count records since 1990 of 390 species, we show that with temperature increase, the abundance of species and populations decreased at lower latitudes, particularly in the tropics, but increased at higher latitudes. These contrasting responses to temperature increase according to latitude indicate potential global-scale poleward shifts of species abundance under climate change, providing empirical support for predictions by earlier studies. The negative responses to temperature increase in tropical species and populations are of conservation concern, as they are often also threatened by other anthropogenic factors. Our results suggest that existing biases in studies towards temperate regions could underestimate the impact of climate change on waterbirds and other species

Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission

Incorporation of ‘social’ variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection —a highly social process in human populations—may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Emile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of ‘social currents.’ Such ‘currents’ are what we might today describe as ‘emergent properties,’ specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to repre

Resolving the infinitude controversy

A simple inductive argument shows natural languages to have infinitly many sentences, but workers in the field have uncovered clear evidence of a diverse group of ‘exceptional’ languages from Proto-Uralic to Dyirbal and most recently, Pirahã, that appear to lack recursive devices entirely. We argue that in an information-theoretic setting non-recursive natural languages appear neither exceptional nor functionally inferior to the recursive majority

Modeling sediment mobilization using a distributed hydrological model coupled with a bank stability model

In addition to surface erosion, stream bank erosion and failure contributes significant sediment and sediment-bound nutrients to receiving waters during high flow events. However, distributed and mechanistic simulation of stream bank sediment contribution to sediment loads in a watershed has not been achieved. Here we present a full coupling of existing distributed watershed and bank stability models and apply the resulting model to the Mad River in central Vermont. We fully coupled the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM) with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to allow the simulation of stream bank erosion and potential failure in a spatially explicit environment. We demonstrate the model\u27s ability to simulate the impacts of unstable streams on sediment mobilization and transport within a watershed and discuss the model\u27s capability to simulate watershed sediment loading under climate change. The calibrated model simulates total suspended sediment loads and reproduces variability in suspended sediment concentrations at watershed and subbasin outlets. In addition, characteristics such as land use and road-to-stream ratio of subbasins are shown to impact the relative proportions of sediment mobilized by overland erosion, erosion of roads, and stream bank erosion and failure in the subbasins and watershed. This coupled model will advance mechanistic simulation of suspended sediment mobilization and transport from watersheds, which will be particularly valuable for investigating the potential impacts of climate and land use changes, as well as extreme events

Lineages, Sub-Lineages and Variants of Enterovirus 68 in Recent Outbreaks

Enterovirus 68 (EV68) was first isolated in 1962. Very few cases of EV68 infection were described over the ensuing 40 years. However, in the past few years, an increase in severe respiratory tract infections associated with EV68 has been reported. We identified two clusters of EV68 infection in South London, UK, one each in the autumn/winters of 2009 and 2010. Sequence comparison showed significant homology of the UK strains with those from other countries including the Netherlands, Japan and the Philippines, which reported EV68 outbreaks between 2008 and 2010. Phylogenetic analysis of all available VP1 sequences indicated the presence of two modern EV68 lineages. The 2010 UK strains belonged to lineage 2. Lineage 1 could be further divided into two sub-lineages: some Japanese and Dutch strains collected between 2004 and 2010 form a distinct sub-lineages (sub-lineage 1.1), whereas other strains from the UK, Japan, Netherlands and Philippines collected between 2008 and 2010 represent sub-lineage 1.2. The UK 2009 strains together with several Dutch and Japanese strains from 2009/2010 represents one variant (1.2.1), whereas those from the Philippines a second variant (1.2.2). Based on specific deletions and substitutions, we suggest rules for the assignment of lineages and sub-lineages. Molecular epidemiological analysis indicates rapid recent evolution of EV68 and this may explain the recent findings of a global resurgence of EV68. Continuous global monitoring of the clinical and molecular epidemiology of EV68 is recommended

Height and timing of growth spurt during puberty in young people living with vertically acquired HIV in Europe and Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe growth during puberty in young people with vertically acquired HIV. DESIGN: Pooled data from 12 paediatric HIV cohorts in Europe and Thailand. METHODS: One thousand and ninety-four children initiating a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or boosted protease inhibitor based regimen aged 1-10 years were included. Super Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) models described growth from age 8 years using three parameters (average height, timing and shape of the growth spurt), dependent on age and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) (WHO references) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Multivariate regression explored characteristics associated with these three parameters. RESULTS: At ART initiation, median age and HAZ was 6.4 [interquartile range (IQR): 2.8, 9.0] years and -1.2 (IQR: -2.3 to -0.2), respectively. Median follow-up was 9.1 (IQR: 6.9, 11.4) years. In girls, older age and lower HAZ at ART initiation were independently associated with a growth spurt which occurred 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.20-0.62) years later in children starting ART age 6 to 10 years compared with 1 to 2 years and 1.50 (1.21-1.78) years later in those starting with HAZ less than -3 compared with HAZ at least -1. Later growth spurts in girls resulted in continued height growth into later adolescence. In boys starting ART with HAZ less than -1, growth spurts were later in children starting ART in the oldest age group, but for HAZ at least -1, there was no association with age. Girls and boys who initiated ART with HAZ at least -1 maintained a similar height to the WHO reference mean. CONCLUSION: Stunting at ART initiation was associated with later growth spurts in girls. Children with HAZ at least -1 at ART initiation grew in height at the level expected in HIV negative children of a comparable age