Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Large accidents throughout the 20th century marked the development of safety fields in engineering, devoted to better identify hazards, understand risks and properly manage them. As these fields evolved rather quickly and moved from a compliance to a risk-based approach, a significant delay in this transition was experienced in fire safety engineering (FSE). Devastating fires well into the 21st century and the restrictive nature of prescriptive codes signaled the need to transition towards a performance-based one. A performance-based approach provides flexibility and capitalizes on learning from accidental events and engineering disciplines such as process safety and FSE. This work provides an overview of the main alternatives to account for uncertainty in safety studies within the context of FSE, including traditional probabilistic analyses and emerging approaches such as strength of knowledge. A simple example is used to illustrate the impact of the uncertainty analysis on the results of a simple fire safety assessment. A structured evaluation is performed on each alternative to assess its ease of implementation and communication. The outcome is a compendium of advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives that constitute a toolbox for fire safety engineers to configure and use within their fire risk assessments. Process safety engineers are expected to gain an understanding of the similar and important challenges of FSE, being it directly relevant for process risk management and fire risk management in administrative buildings

Overcoming risk assessment limitations for potential fires in a multi-occupancy building

Decision-making under risk has been a key issue in systems with a potential for major losses such as chemical process industries (Bhopal - 1984, Toulouse - 2001) or high occupancy buildings (World Trade Center - 2001, Grenfell Tower - 2017). For the past decades, engineering disciplines have supported risk management decision-making through the implementation of risk assessments using quantitative approaches. The popularity of this approach relates to the quantitative definition of risk given by Kaplan in 1981, who decomposed risk into a set of scenarios, probability of occurrence and consequences. Recently, research on quantitative risk assessments (QRA) has reported key limitations on identifying the set of scenarios and estimating their probability of occurrence. These limitations may lead to uncertainties of up to three orders of magnitude that affect the QRA’s ability of delivering reliable information to stakeholders. This research uses an alternative definition of risk and applies it to a case study of a multi-occupancy building in the event of a fire. The proposed approach quantifies the maximum damage potential (MDP) of the system when all the active safety measures are allowed to fail, even those with low failure frequencies. The system’s MDP is compared to its maximum allowable damage (MAD), which is previously defined by the stakeholders. This approach allows defining design modifications and operational rules aiding the development of the building’s fire safety strategy. Finally, a comparison between the obtained results and a typical QRA is used to comment on the suitability of the proposed approach when evaluating risk in complex systems

Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Risiko Keuangan, Nilai Perusahaan, Kepemilikan Manajerial, dan Dividend Payout Ratio terhadap Praktik Perataan Laba (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Real Estate dan Properti yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2011-2013)

This study aims to demonstrate the influence of profitability, financial risk, firm value, managerial ownership, and dividend payout ratio toward income smoothing practice done by management. The population in this study is all real estate and property company listed on Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). Samples were decided by using purposive sampling method. Samples in this study choose based on several criteria and as much as 35 (thirty five) companies were selected. The methodology used in this is multiple regressions analysis. The results of this study stated that financial risk (LEV) has significant effect to the income smoothing practice of real estate and Property Company listed on Indonesian Stock Exchange year 2011-2013. While the ROA, PBV, MOWN, and DPR have no significant effect to the income smoothing practice of real estate and Property Company listed on Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2011-2013. Coefficient of determination obtained amount to 0,088 or 8,8%. It indicates that income smoothing practices in real estate and Property Company are described by 8,8% by ROA, LEV, PBV, MOWN, and DPR. The remaining of 91,2% are influenced by other factor which were not examined in this study.Keywords: Profitability (ROA), Financial Risk (LEV), Firm Value (PBV), Managerial Ownership (MOWN), Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), Income Smoothing Practice

Activation Mobilizes the Cholesterol in the Late Endosomes-Lysosomes of Niemann Pick Type C Cells

A variety of intercalating amphipaths increase the chemical activity of plasma membrane cholesterol. To test whether intracellular cholesterol can be similarly activated, we examined NPC1 and NPC2 fibroblasts, since they accumulate large amounts of cholesterol in their late endosomes and lysosomes (LE/L). We gauged the mobility of intracellular sterol from its appearance at the surface of the intact cells, as determined by its susceptibility to cholesterol oxidase and its isotope exchange with extracellular 2-(hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin-cholesterol. The entire cytoplasmic cholesterol pool in these cells was mobile, exchanging with the plasma membrane with an apparent half-time of ∼3–4 hours, ∼4–5 times slower than that for wild type human fibroblasts (half-time ∼0.75 hours). The mobility of the intracellular cholesterol was increased by the membrane-intercalating amphipaths chlorpromazine and 1-octanol. Chlorpromazine also promoted the net transfer of LE/L cholesterol to serum and cyclodextrin. Surprisingly, the mobility of LE/L cholesterol was greatly stimulated by treating intact NPC cells with glutaraldehyde or formaldehyde. Similar effects were seen with wild type fibroblasts in which the LE/L cholesterol pool had been expanded using U18666A. We also showed that the cholesterol in the intracellular membranes of fixed wild-type fibroblasts was mobile; it was rapidly oxidized by cholesterol oxidase and was rapidly replenished by exogenous sterol. We conclude that a) the cholesterol in NPC cells can exit the LE/L (and the extensive membranous inclusions therein) over a few hours; b) this mobility is stimulated by the activation of the cholesterol with intercalating amphipaths; c) intracellular cholesterol is even more mobile in fixed cells; and d) amphipaths that activate cholesterol might be useful in treating NPC disease

Design and feasibility testing of a novel group intervention for young women who binge drink in groups

BackgroundYoung women frequently drink alcohol in groups and binge drinking within these natural drinking groups is common. This study describes the design of a theoretically and empirically based group intervention to reduce binge drinking among young women. It also evaluates their engagement with the intervention and the acceptability of the study methods.MethodsFriendship groups of women aged 18–35 years, who had two or more episodes of binge drinking (>6 UK units on one occasion; 48g of alcohol) in the previous 30 days, were recruited from the community. A face-to-face group intervention, based on the Health Action Process Approach, was delivered over three sessions. Components of the intervention were woven around fun activities, such as making alcohol free cocktails. Women were followed up four months after the intervention was delivered. Results The target of 24 groups (comprising 97 women) was recruited. The common pattern of drinking was infrequent, heavy drinking (mean consumption on the heaviest drinking day was UK 18.1 units). Process evaluation revealed that the intervention was delivered with high fidelity and acceptability of the study methods was high. The women engaged positively with intervention components and made group decisions about cutting down. Twenty two groups set goals to reduce their drinking, and these were translated into action plans. Retention of individuals at follow up was 87%.ConclusionsThis study successfully recruited groups of young women whose patterns of drinking place them at high risk of acute harm. This novel approach to delivering an alcohol intervention has potential to reduce binge drinking among young women. The high levels of engagement with key steps in the behavior change process suggests that the group intervention should be tested in a full randomised controlled trial

The regional economic impact of more graduates in the labour market: a “micro-to-macro” analysis for Scotland

This paper explores the system-wide impact of graduates on the regional economy. Graduates enjoy a significant wage premium, often interpreted as reflecting their greater productivity relative to non-graduates. If this is so there is a clear and direct supply-side impact of HEI activities on regional economies. We use an HEI-disaggregated computable general equilibrium model of Scotland to estimate the impact of the growing proportion of graduates in the Scottish labour force that is implied by the current participation rate and demographic change, taking the graduate wage premium in Scotland as an indicator of productivity enhancement. While the detailed results vary with alternative assumptions about the extent to which wage premia reflect productivity, they do suggest that the long-term supply-side impacts of HEIs provide a significant boost to regional GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that the supply-side impacts of HEIs are likely to be more important than the expenditure impacts that are the focus of most HEI impact studies

Direct and indirect control of the initiation of meiotic recombination by DNA damage checkpoint mechanisms in budding yeast

Meiotic recombination plays an essential role in the proper segregation of chromosomes at meiosis I in many sexually reproducing organisms. Meiotic recombination is initiated by the scheduled formation of genome-wide DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs). The timing of DSB formation is strictly controlled because unscheduled DSB formation is detrimental to genome integrity. Here, we investigated the role of DNA damage checkpoint mechanisms in the control of meiotic DSB formation using budding yeast. By using recombination defective mutants in which meiotic DSBs are not repaired, the effect of DNA damage checkpoint mutations on DSB formation was evaluated. The Tel1 (ATM) pathway mainly responds to unresected DSB ends, thus the sae2 mutant background in which DSB ends remain intact was employed. On the other hand, the Mec1 (ATR) pathway is primarily used when DSB ends are resected, thus the rad51 dmc1 double mutant background was employed in which highly resected DSBs accumulate. In order to separate the effect caused by unscheduled cell cycle progression, which is often associated with DNA damage checkpoint defects, we also employed the ndt80 mutation which permanently arrests the meiotic cell cycle at prophase I. In the absence of Tel1, DSB formation was reduced in larger chromosomes (IV, VII, II and XI) whereas no significant reduction was found in smaller chromosomes (III and VI). On the other hand, the absence of Rad17 (a critical component of the ATR pathway) lead to an increase in DSB formation (chromosomes VII and II were tested). We propose that, within prophase I, the Tel1 pathway facilitates DSB formation, especially in bigger chromosomes, while the Mec1 pathway negatively regulates DSB formation. We also identified prophase I exit, which is under the control of the DNA damage checkpoint machinery, to be a critical event associated with down-regulating meiotic DSB formation

Quantitative nanoscale vortex-imaging using a cryogenic quantum magnetometer

Microscopic studies of superconductors and their vortices play a pivotal role in our understanding of the mechanisms underlying superconductivity. Local measurements of penetration depths or magnetic stray-fields enable access to fundamental aspects of superconductors such as nanoscale variations of superfluid densities or the symmetry of their order parameter. However, experimental tools, which offer quantitative, nanoscale magnetometry and operate over the large range of temperature and magnetic fields relevant to address many outstanding questions in superconductivity, are still missing. Here, we demonstrate quantitative, nanoscale magnetic imaging of Pearl vortices in the cuprate superconductor YBCO, using a scanning quantum sensor in form of a single Nitrogen-Vacancy (NV) electronic spin in diamond. The sensor-to-sample distance of ~10nm we achieve allows us to observe striking deviations from the prevalent monopole approximation in our vortex stray-field images, while we find excellent quantitative agreement with Pearl's analytic model. Our experiments yield a non-invasive and unambiguous determination of the system's local London penetration depth, and are readily extended to higher temperatures and magnetic fields. These results demonstrate the potential of quantitative quantum sensors in benchmarking microscopic models of complex electronic systems and open the door for further exploration of strongly correlated electron physics using scanning NV magnetometry.Comment: Main text (5 pages, 4 figures) plus supplementary material (5 pages, 6 figures). Comments welcome. Further information under http://www.quantum-sensing.c