Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M_w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the M_w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing

Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the Application to Geodetic Time Series Analysis

The time evolution of geophysical phenomena can be characterised by stochastic time series. The stochastic nature of the signal stems from the geophysical phenomena involved and any noise, which may be due to, e.g., un-modelled effects or measurement errors. Until the 1990's, it was usually assumed that white noise could fully characterise this noise. However, this was demonstrated to be not the case and it was proven that this assumption leads to underestimated uncertainties of the geophysical parameters inferred from the geodetic time series. Therefore, in order to fully quantify all the uncertainties as robustly as possible, it is imperative to estimate not only the deterministic but also the stochastic parameters of the time series. In this regard, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method can provide a sample of the distribution function of all parameters, including those regarding the noise, e.g., spectral index and amplitudes. After presenting the MCMC method and its implementation in our MCMC software we apply it to synthetic and real time series and perform a cross-evaluation using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) as implemented in the CATS software. Several examples as to how the MCMC method performs as a parameter estimation method for geodetic time series are given in this chapter. These include the applications to GPS position time series, superconducting gravity time series and monthly mean sea level (MSL) records, which all show very different stochastic properties. The impact of the estimated parameter uncertainties on sub-sequentially derived products is briefly demonstrated for the case of plate motion models. Finally, the MCMC results for weekly downsampled versions of the benchmark synthetic GNSS time series as provided in Chapter 2 are presented separately in an appendix

Ezrin Is Highly Expressed in Early Thymocytes, but Dispensable for T Cell Development in Mice

Ezrin/radixin/moesin (ERM) proteins are highly homologous proteins that function to link cargo molecules to the actin cytoskeleton. Ezrin and moesin are both expressed in mature lymphocytes, where they play overlapping roles in cell signaling and polarity, but their role in lymphoid development has not been explored.We characterized ERM protein expression in lymphoid tissues and analyzed the requirement for ezrin expression in lymphoid development. In wildtype mice, we found that most cells in the spleen and thymus express both ezrin and moesin, but little radixin. ERM protein expression in the thymus was differentially regulated, such that ezrin expression was highest in immature thymocytes and diminished during T cell development. In contrast, moesin expression was low in early thymocytes and upregulated during T cell development. Mice bearing a germline deletion of ezrin exhibited profound defects in the size and cellularity of the spleen and thymus, abnormal thymic architecture, diminished hematopoiesis, and increased proportions of granulocytic precursors. Further analysis using fetal liver chimeras and thymic transplants showed that ezrin expression is dispensable in hematopoietic and stromal lineages, and that most of the defects in lymphoid development in ezrin(-/-) mice likely arise as a consequence of nutritional stress.We conclude that despite high expression in lymphoid precursor cells, ezrin is dispensable for lymphoid development, most likely due to redundancy with moesin

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS

Aim: To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS). Methods: The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences. Results: Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and modest harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS. Conclusions: Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses

The MR neuroimaging protocol for the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia Program.

Neuroimaging with MRI has been a frequent component of studies of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for developing psychosis, with goals of understanding potential brain regions and systems impacted in the CHR state and identifying prognostic or predictive biomarkers that can enhance our ability to forecast clinical outcomes. To date, most studies involving MRI in CHR are likely not sufficiently powered to generate robust and generalizable neuroimaging results. Here, we describe the prospective, advanced, and modern neuroimaging protocol that was implemented in a complex multi-site, multi-vendor environment, as part of the large-scale Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia Program (AMP® SCZ), including the rationale for various choices. This protocol includes T1- and T2-weighted structural scans, resting-state fMRI, and diffusion-weighted imaging collected at two time points, approximately 2 months apart. We also present preliminary variance component analyses of several measures, such as signal- and contrast-to-noise ratio (SNR/CNR) and spatial smoothness, to provide quantitative data on the relative percentages of participant, site, and platform (i.e., scanner model) variance. Site-related variance is generally small (typically <10%). For the SNR/CNR measures from the structural and fMRI scans, participant variance is the largest component (as desired; 40-76%). However, for SNR/CNR in the diffusion scans, there is substantial platform-related variance (>55%) due to differences in the diffusion imaging hardware capabilities of the different scanners. Also, spatial smoothness generally has a large platform-related variance due to inherent, difficult to control, differences between vendors in their acquisitions and reconstructions. These results illustrate some of the factors that will need to be considered in analyses of the AMP SCZ neuroimaging data, which will be the largest CHR cohort to date.Watch Dr. Harms discuss this article at https://vimeo.com/1059777228?share=copy#t=0

Sample ascertainment and clinical outcome measures in the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia Program.

Clinical ascertainment and clinical outcome are key features of any large multisite study. In the ProNET and PRESCIENT research networks, the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP®SCZ) Clinical Ascertainment and Outcome Measures Team aimed to establish a harmonized clinical assessment protocol across these two research networks and to define ascertainment criteria and primary and secondary endpoints. In addition to developing the assessment protocol, the goals of this aspect of the AMP SCZ project were: (1) to implement and monitor clinical training, ascertainment of participants, and clinical assessments; (2) to provide expert clinical input to the Psychosis Risk Evaluation, Data Integration and Computational Technologies: Data Processing, Analysis, and Coordination Center (PREDICT-DPACC) for data collection, quality control, and preparation of data for the analysis of the clinical measures; and (3) to provide ongoing support to the collection, analysis, and reporting of clinical data. This paper describes the (1) protocol clinical endpoints and outcomes, (2) rationale for the selection of the clinical measures, (3) extensive training of clinical staff, (4) preparation of clinical measures for a multisite study which includes several sites where English is not the native language; and (5) the assessment of measure stability over time in the AMP SCZ observational study comparing clinical ratings at baseline and at the 2-month follow up. Watch Dr. Jean Addington discuss her work and this article: https://vimeo.com/1040425281

Cognitive assessment in the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia Program:harmonization priorities and strategies in a diverse international sample

Cognitive impairment occurs at higher rates in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis relative to healthy peers, and it contributes unique variance to multivariate prediction models of transition to psychosis. Such impairment is considered a core biomarker of schizophrenia. Thus, cognition is a key domain measured in the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® program for Schizophrenia (AMP SCZ initiative). The aim of this paper is to describe the rationale, processes, considerations, and final harmonization of the cognitive battery used in AMP SCZ across the two data collection networks. This battery comprises tests of general intellect and specific cognitive domains. We estimate premorbid intelligence at baseline and measure current intelligence at baseline and 2 years. Eight tests from the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery (PennCNB), which measure verbal learning and memory, sensorimotor ability, attention, emotion recognition, working memory, processing speed, verbal memory, visual memory, and motor speed are administered repeatedly at baseline, and four follow-up timepoints over 2 years.</p

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals