Food security and Brexit: how the CAP began

In a new briefing paper, ‘Food, the UK and the EU: Brexit or Bremain?‘, Tim Lang and Victoria Schoen argue that post-Brexit the food world “will be characterised by volatility, disruption and uncertainty”, as the cost of imports will rise if sterling falls. They also discuss the urgent need for continued reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. In this extract from the paper, they explain how food and agriculture were central to the founding mission of the EU

A food Brexit: time to get real

The implications of Brexit for food are potentially enormous. This verdict applies, whether there is a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. The UK food system, consumer tastes and prices have been thoroughly Europeanised. This will be impossible to cut out or back by March 2019 without enormous consequences. The UK food system faces real challenges on food security. This paper summarises 15 major issues on which Food Brexit has the potential to threaten UK food resilience and security: 1. Vision. What goals would any new post-EU food system have? Will these address the looming sustainability challenge which is a mix of ecosystems, social and public health challenges? 2. New food legislation will be needed. Will this be a transfer of EU legislation followed by the Secretary of State sitting with his or her 'delete’ button? 3. Food security. The UK’s home production has been steadily declining. The UK food system ought to be improving its resilience. It isn’t. It’s like the rabbit caught in the headlights – with no goals, no leadership, and eviscerated key ministries. 4. Sourcing. The UK derives much of the food vital for health – fruit and veg – from within the EU. The pound sterling has been dropping. Food price inflation is rising. 5. Public support. Clarifying and then aligning what British consumers say they want with what is negotiated by March 2019. 6. Food quality and standards. Brexit campaigners ignored the inbuilt reliance the UK has on pan-European institutions, to which we contribute. A vast array of institutions and scientific infrastructure keeps UK food fit to eat. Brexit campaigners did not inform consumers/voters that US agribusiness is salivating at the prospect of selling foods which have weaker standards, nor that foods derived on world markets use standards which are weaker than the EU’s and those of the USA. 7. Replacing the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy. The CAP and CFP are core and old EU policies. They have been much attacked in the UK, often for good reason. Leaving CAP and the CFP exposes a vast policy vacuum. The new Secretary of State has made a statement about even tearing up the CFP predecessor the London Fisheries Convention from 1964! The Coalition and subsequent Conservative Governments provided no policy vision other than a belief that Agri-technology and an export drive will suffice for farming, and that reasserting a 200-mile exclusion will resolve unsustainable fish sourcing. They will not. What’s the point of farming and fishing? How can they mix food production and ecosystems services? These are vital issues for the era of climate change and ecosystem stresses. 8. Food labour. The entire UK food system is dependent on migrant labour. UK food manufacturing is our largest manufacturing sector but one third of its workforce is migrant. UK horticulture has massive dependency on migrants to pick ‘British’ food UK consumers say they want. Technology will not replace the vast army of migrant labour who work in food service. 9. Subsidies. HM Treasury and Defra have long been ideologically opposed to subsidies for farmers yet CAP/EU subsidies provide about half of UK farm incomes. The Conservative manifesto talked of maintaining subsidies until 2022. Then what? Defra and HM Treasury are committed to cutting ‘Pillar 1’, implying that if there are to be any subsidies, the base line for them would be the existing 20% that goes to Pillar 2. The subsidy question exposes the shameful inequalities within the UK food system. Primary growers get a tiny percentage of what consumers spend on food. 10. National and regional food policy. The UK has no food policy. Scotland and Wales have been developing their own visions; England is the problem. Seen collectively, the UK will have a dwindling mishmash of policies, once EU frameworks are removed. The UK has fairly consistently failed to contribute positively in EU debates, playing to the corporate gallery at home, arguing for cutting subsidies, rather than working hard inside for progressive policies. The world’s food system faces immense challenges. The drift in and after a Brexit is the worst policy situation imaginable. We have options. This paper explores some options mooted within and beyond government circles: a new imperialism (expecting others to feed us); reinvigorating UK food systems; commitment to sustainability; and more. 11. Relationships with neighbours. The wild talk before, during and since the Referendum ignores geography. The EU 27 member states are our neighbours. They are incredulous at the hostile, stupid talk from leading politicians. British negotiators must build bridges. Or does the UK really want hostility? This would be madness for a country which does not feed itself. 12. Divided Food Britain. The UK is a food divided country. The health gap between rich and poor is heavily associated with diet and food costs. Recent events underline how important it is to tackle these divisions. Merely promising ever cheaper prices or more food banks is not a reasoned policy response. 13. Institutions and infrastructure. The UK enters Brexit negotiations in a weak situation. The Food Standards Agency is a shadow of its former self. Defra has had years of cuts and suffers a serious staff shortage, just when the UK needs many of the best and brightest civil servants to negotiate the most important element of Europeanisation – our food. To leave the EU would sever the UK from many bodies which underpin food – from scientific advisory bodies to regulators, from research programmes to subsidies to regions. What is going to replace these? There is silence from Defra and the Government. 14. The negotiations. In 18 months or so, the most complex reconfiguration of the UK food system is to be completed. Analysts now realise that this is at best folly or at worst a recipe for chaos. Never has there been such a large body of thinking within the food system, from outside critics to inside track policy cognoscenti, that the UK ought to take a deep breath, reconsider and pursue a well-thought-out strategy. 15. The role of Big Food. The food system is already dominated by huge food companies. Brexit must not be an opportunity for further corporate capture of market power. The good news is that increasing numbers of food companies now recognise the seriousness of impending crises from health, ecosystems and social divisions. The UK public must ensure that what emerges ahead – whether the UK leaves or stays – the food system is more firmly shaped by values of justice and decency, as well as good quality. The realities of a Food Brexit are awesome. The British public has not been informed about its implications. Many people who voted for Brexit will be hardest hit by a ‘hard’ Brexit – people on low incomes, the elderly, farmers, people in the North of England. This paper urges politicians, civil society and academics who understand the food system to speak up and speak out. Brexit is a political construct. It should not be a recipe for food insecurity

Serious Gaming for the Evaluation of Market Mechanisms

Design science consists of two major design processes: building and evaluation. A wellexecuted evaluation of design artifacts is crucial to their success. Traditional evaluation tools have certain weaknesses because design artifacts include “wicked” problems. Serious Gaming can help to overcome these problems. To this end an online based cloud resource managing game is developed which simulates the implementation of a market mechanism and represents a new design artifact. This mechanism is a heuristic solution consisting of dynamic pricing and a priority policy. The aim of this research is to show that Serious Gaming complements traditional evaluation tools and improves the evaluation of market mechanisms. Therefore, a general guideline for designing Serious Games for evaluation is developed and a classification of Serious Gaming is established. After having collected sufficient data, future work will be to analyze players’ behavior and finally evaluate the market mechanism

Can training bar staff in responsible serving practices reduce alcohol-related harm?

A responsible service training programme aimed at reducing alcohol-related harm was implemented in a popular entertainment area over several months in 1992-93. Another popular entertainment area provided a control site. A number of evaluation measures were used: breath tests on 872 patrons from selected venues; drink driving data; risk assessments; the use of 'pseudo patrons'; and knowledge and attitude changes among trained bar staff (n = 88). Compared to control sites the intervention sites showed an immediate pre- to post-test reduction in patrons rated by researchers as extremely drunk and an eventual reduction from pre-test to follow-up in patrons with blood alcohol levels > = 0.08. There was also a small but significant increase in knowledge among bar staff. There was no significant reduction in patrons with blood alcohol levels > = 0.15 or in the number of drink driving offences from intervention sites during the study period. Pseudo drunk patrons were rarely refused service, identification was rarely checked and non-photographic identification was accepted on most occasions. The less than satisfactory outcome is attributed to poor implementation of the training and a lack of support among managers. The positive results from one venue, whose manager embraced the programme, served to highlight the importance of management support. It is suggested that mandatory training and routine enforcement of licensing laws are essential if the goals of responsible serving are to be met

No-deal food planning in UK Brexit

Even for a country with a long history of arguments about food supply, the UK's present situation is remarkable. A country that received 28% of its food in 2018 directly from the European Union (EU), plus 11% more through EU trade deals, is now planning, under the leadership of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to leave the EU (“Brexit”) on Oct 31, 2019, with or without an agreement on how and what the terms are for trade, customs, and food security. The food implications for consumers and public health of a no-deal Brexit are seeping out of government but deserve full scrutiny

Solving the "many variables" problem in MICE with principal component regression

Multiple Imputation (MI) is one of the most popular approaches to addressing missing values in questionnaires and surveys. MI with multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE) allows flexible imputation of many types of data. In MICE, for each variable under imputation, the imputer needs to specify which variables should act as predictors in the imputation model. The selection of these predictors is a difficult, but fundamental, step in the MI procedure, especially when there are many variables in a data set. In this project, we explore the use of principal component regression (PCR) as a univariate imputation method in the MICE algorithm to automatically address the "many variables" problem that arises when imputing large social science data. We compare different implementations of PCR-based MICE with a correlation-thresholding strategy by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study. We find the use of PCR on a variable-by-variable basis to perform best and that it can perform closely to expertly designed imputation procedures

High-dimensional Imputation for the Social Sciences: a Comparison of State-of-the-art Methods

Including a large number of predictors in the imputation model underlying a multiple imputation (MI) procedure is one of the most challenging tasks imputers face. A variety of high-dimensional MI techniques can help, but there has been limited research on their relative performance. In this study, we investigated a wide range of extant high-dimensional MI techniques that can handle a large number of predictors in the imputation models and general missing data patterns. We assessed the relative performance of seven high-dimensional MI methods with a Monte Carlo simulation study and a resampling study based on real survey data. The performance of the methods was defined by the degree to which they facilitate unbiased and confidencevalid estimates of the parameters of complete data analysis models. We found that using lasso penalty or forward selection to select the predictors used in the MI model and using principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of auxiliary data produce the best results

Sustainable Diets: another hurdle or a better food future?,

The notion of sustainable diets has emerged forcibly onto the food policy agenda in recent years, but has also met resistance. The article reviews the case for sustainable diets. It counterbalances the current dominant policy emphasis on raising food output as the best route to a sustainable food future. The article suggests that a process of democratic experimentation is underway. Some official guidelines have emerged alongside a mix of civil society and academic formulations. More coherence of data, principles and purpose is needed at the global and regional policy-making levels for these to become effective in the common task of reducing the food system’s negative impact on health, environment and economies

Brexit poses serious threats to the availability and affordability of food in the United Kingdom.

Brexit will have profound implications for health and health policy yet, while much attention has focused on health professionals, medicines and health protection, the risk of food insecurity, and thus health, has received less attention. We identify five major threats to the availability and affordability of food supplies. These are a lack of regulatory alignment restricting ability to import foods from the EU and beyond, a shortage of agricultural labour in the UK, increased prices of imported foods due to tariffs, damage to supply chains, for example, due to customs delays and loss of interoperability of transportation, and damage to agricultural production and food flows in Ireland