Meeting Report: WHO Workshop on modelling global mortality and aetiology estimates of enteric pathogens in children under five. Cape Town, 28-29th November 2018.

Investment in vaccine product development should be guided by up-to-date and transparent global burden of disease estimates, which are also fundamental to policy recommendation and vaccine introduction decisions. For low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), vaccine prioritization is primarily driven by the number of deaths caused by different pathogens. Enteric diseases are known to be a major cause of death in LMICs. The two main modelling groups providing mortality estimates for enteric diseases are the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Seattle and the Maternal Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) group, led by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Whilst previous global diarrhoea mortality estimates for under five-year-olds from these two groups were closely aligned, more recent estimates for 2016 have diverged, particularly with respect to numbers of deaths attributable to different enteric pathogens. This has impacted prioritization and investment decisions for vaccines in the development pipeline. The mission of the Product Development for Vaccines Advisory Committee (PDVAC) at the World Health Organisation (WHO) is to accelerate product development of vaccines and technologies that are urgently needed and ensure they are appropriately targeted for use in LMICs. At their 2018 meeting, PDVAC recommended the formation of an independent working group of subject matter experts to explore the reasons for the difference between the IHME and MCEE estimates, and to assess the respective strengths and limitations of the estimation approaches adopted, including a review of the data on which the estimates are based. Here, we report on the proceedings and recommendations from a consultation with the working group of experts, the IHME and MCEE modelling groups, and other key stakeholders. We briefly review the methodological approaches of both groups and provide a series of proposals for investigating the drivers for the differences in enteric disease burden estimates

Chronic typhoid infection and the risk of biliary tract cancer and stones in Shanghai, China

Previous studies have shown a positive association between chronic typhoid carriage and biliary cancers. We compared serum Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi antibody titers between biliary tract cancer cases, biliary stone cases without evidence of cancer, and healthy subjects in a large population-based case-control study in Shanghai, China

Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the leading cause of child deaths globally. The aims of this study were to: a) estimate the number and global distribution of pneumonia deaths for children 1-59 months for 2008 for countries with low (85% coverage of death certification countries was used. For 87 high child-mortality countries pneumonia death estimates were obtained by applying a regression model developed from published and unpublished verbal autopsy data from high child-mortality settings. The total number of 1-59 months pneumonia deaths for the year 2008 for these 122 countries was estimated to be 1.18 M (95% CI 0.77 M-1.80 M), which represented 23.27% (95% CI 17.15%-32.75%) of all 1-59 month child deaths. The country level estimation correlation coefficient between these two methods was 0.40. INTERPRETATION: Although the overall number of post-neonatal pneumonia deaths was similar irrespective to the method of estimation used, the country estimate correlation coefficient was low, and therefore country-specific estimates should be interpreted with caution. Pneumonia remains the leading cause of child deaths and is greatest in regions of poverty and high child-mortality. Despite the concerns about gender inequity linked with childhood mortality we could not estimate sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates due to the inadequate data. Life-saving interventions effective in preventing and treating pneumonia mortality exist but few children in high pneumonia disease burden regions are able to access them. To achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds in year 2015 will require the scale-up of access to these effective pneumonia interventions

Child feces disposal practices in rural Orissa: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 2.5 billion people worldwide lack access to improved sanitation facilities. While large-scale programs in some countries have increased latrine coverage, they sometimes fail to ensure optimal latrine use, including the safe disposal of child feces, a significant source of exposure to fecal pathogens. We undertook a cross-sectional study to explore fecal disposal practices among children in rural Orissa, India in villages where the Government of India's Total Sanitation Campaign had been implemented at least three years prior to the study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted surveys with heads of 136 households with 145 children under 5 years of age in 20 villages. We describe defecation and feces disposal practices and explore associations between safe disposal and risk factors. Respondents reported that children commonly defecated on the ground, either inside the household (57.5%) for pre-ambulatory children or around the compound (55.2%) for ambulatory children. Twenty percent of pre-ambulatory children used potties and nappies; the same percentage of ambulatory children defecated in a latrine. While 78.6% of study children came from 106 households with a latrine, less than a quarter (22.8%) reported using them for disposal of child feces. Most child feces were deposited with other household waste, both for pre-ambulatory (67.5%) and ambulatory (58.1%) children. After restricting the analysis to households owning a latrine, the use of a nappy or potty was associated with safe disposal of feces (OR 6.72, 95%CI 1.02-44.38) though due to small sample size the regression could not adjust for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In the area surveyed, the Total Sanitation Campaign has not led to high levels of safe disposal of child feces. Further research is needed to identify the actual scope of this potential gap in programming, the health risk presented and interventions to minimize any adverse effect

Whom and Where Are We Not Vaccinating? Coverage after the Introduction of a New Conjugate Vaccine against Group A Meningococcus in Niger in 2010

MenAfriVac is a new conjugate vaccine against Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A developed for the African “meningitis belt”. In Niger, the first two phases of the MenAfriVac introduction campaign were conducted targeting 3,135,942 individuals aged 1 to 29 years in the regions of Tillabéri, Niamey, and Dosso, in September and December 2010. We evaluated the campaign and determined which sub-populations or areas had low levels of vaccination coverage in the regions of Tillabéri and Niamey. After Phase I, conducted in the Filingué district, we estimated coverage using a 30×15 cluster-sampling survey and nested lot quality assurance (LQA) analysis in the clustered samples to identify which subpopulations (defined by age 1–14/15–29 and sex) had unacceptable vaccination coverage (<70%). After Phase II, we used Clustered Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (CLQAS) to assess if any of eight districts in Niamey and Tillabéri had unacceptable vaccination coverage (<75%) and estimated overall coverage. Estimated vaccination coverage was 77.4% (95%CI: 84.6–70.2) as documented by vaccination cards and 85.5% (95% CI: 79.7–91.2) considering verbal history of vaccination for Phase I; 81.5% (95%CI: 86.1–77.0) by card and 93.4% (95% CI: 91.0–95.9) by verbal history for Phase II. Based on vaccination cards, in Filingué, we identified both the male and female adult (age 15–29) subpopulations as not reaching 70% coverage; and we identified three (one in Tillabéri and two in Niamey) out of eight districts as not reaching 75% coverage confirmed by card. Combined use of LQA and cluster sampling was useful to estimate vaccination coverage and to identify pockets with unacceptable levels of coverage (adult population and three districts). Although overall vaccination coverage was satisfactory, we recommend continuing vaccination in the areas or sub-populations with low coverage and reinforcing the social mobilization of the adult population

Sexual behavior and drug consumption among young adults in a shantytown in Lima, Peru

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Risky sexual behaviors of young adults have received increasing attention during the last decades. However, few studies have focused on the sexual behavior of young adults in shantytowns of Latin America. Specifically, studies on the association between sexual behaviors and other risk factors for sexually transmitted infections (STI) and HIV/AIDS transmission, such as the consumption of illicit drugs or alcohol are scarce in this specific context.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study participants were 393 men and 400 women between 18 and 30 years of age, from a shantytown in Lima, Peru. Data were obtained via survey: one section applied by a trained research assistant, and a self-reporting section. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations between use of any illicit drug, high-risk sexual behaviors and reported STI symptoms, adjusting for alcohol consumption level and various socio-demographic characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among men, age of sexual debut was lower, number of lifetime sexual partners was higher, and there were higher risk types of sexual partners, compared to women. Though consistent condom use with casual partners was low in both groups, reported condom use at last intercourse was higher among men than women. Also, a lifetime history of illicit drug consumption decreased the probability of condom use at last sexual intercourse by half. Among men, the use of illicit drugs doubled the probability of intercourse with a casual partner during the last year and tripled the probability of reported STI symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Drug consumption is associated with high-risk sexual behaviors and reported STI symptoms in a Lima shantytown after controlling for alcohol consumption level. Development of prevention programs for risky sexual behaviors, considering gender differences, is discussed.</p

Risk Factors for Extended Duration of Acute Diarrhea in Young Children

Objective and Background: We sought to identify predictors of extended duration of diarrhea in young children, which contributes substantially to the nearly 1 1/2 million annual diarrheal deaths globally. Methods: We followed 6-35 month old Nepalese children enrolled in the placebo-arm of a randomized controlled trial with 391 episodes of acute diarrhea from the day they were diagnosed until cessation of the episode. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors for having diarrhea for more than 7 days after diagnosis. Results: Infants had a 17 (95% CI 3.5, 83)-fold and toddlers (12 to 23 month olds) a 9.9 (95% CI 2.1, 47)-fold higher odds of having such illness duration compared to the older children. Not being breastfed was associated with a 9.3 (95% CI 2.4, 35.7)-fold increase in the odds for this outcome. The odds also increased with increasing stool frequency. Furthermore, having diarrhea in the monsoon season also increased the risk of prolonged illness. Conclusion: We found that high stool frequency, not being breastfed, young age and acquiring diarrhea in the rainy season were risk factors for prolonged diarrhea. In populations such as ours, breastfeeding may be the most important modifiable risk factor for extended duration of diarrhea

Sanitation and Health

As one article in a four-part PLoS Medicine series on water and sanitation, David Trouba and colleagues discuss the importance of improved sanitation to health and the role that the health sector can play in its advocacy