Volcanic CO2 tracks the incubation period of basaltic paroxysms

The ordinarily benign activity of basaltic volcanoes is periodically interrupted by violent paroxysmal explosions ranging in size from Hawaiian to Plinian in the most extreme examples. These paroxysms often occur suddenly and with limited or no precursors, leaving their causal mechanisms still incompletely understood. Two such events took place in summer 2019 at Stromboli, a volcano otherwise known for its persistent mild open-vent activity, resulting in one fatality and damage to infrastructure. Here, we use a post hoc analysis and reinterpretation of volcanic gas compositions and fluxes acquired at Stromboli to show that the two paroxysms were preceded by detectable escalations in volcanic plume CO2 degassing weeks to months beforehand. Our results demonstrate that volcanic gas CO2 is a key driver of explosions and that the preparatory periods ahead of explosions in basaltic systems can be captured by precursory CO2 leakage from deeply stored mafic magma

Quantifying the Detrimental Impacts of Land-Use and Management Change on European Forest Bird Populations

The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health

Ground deformation reveals the scale-invariant conduit dynamics driving explosive basaltic eruptions

The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma rising from depth into a shallow (<400m) resident magma conduit. We show that the duration and amplitude of this inflation trend scales with the eruption magnitude, indicating that the explosive dynamics obey the same (scale-invariant) conduit process. This scale-invariance of pre-explosion ground deformation may usher in a new era of short-term eruption forecasting

Ground deformation reveals the scale-invariant conduit dynamics driving explosive basaltic eruptions

The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma rising from depth into a shallow (<400 m) resident magma conduit. We show that the duration and amplitude of this inflation trend scales with the eruption magnitude, indicating that the explosive dynamics obey the same (scale-invariant) conduit process. This scale-invariance of pre-explosion ground deformation may usher in a new era of short-term eruption forecasting

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Harnessing learning biases is essential for applying social learning in conservation

Social learning can influence how animals respond to anthropogenic changes in the environment, determining whether animals survive novel threats and exploit novel resources or produce maladaptive behaviour and contribute to human-wildlife conflict. Predicting where social learning will occur and manipulating its use are, therefore, important in conservation, but doing so is not straightforward. Learning is an inherently biased process that has been shaped by natural selection to prioritize important information and facilitate its efficient uptake. In this regard, social learning is no different from other learning processes because it too is shaped by perceptual filters, attentional biases and learning constraints that can differ between habitats, species, individuals and contexts. The biases that constrain social learning are not understood well enough to accurately predict whether or not social learning will occur in many situations, which limits the effective use of social learning in conservation practice. Nevertheless, we argue that by tapping into the biases that guide the social transmission of information, the conservation applications of social learning could be improved. We explore the conservation areas where social learning is highly relevant and link them to biases in the cues and contexts that shape social information use. The resulting synthesis highlights many promising areas for collaboration between the fields and stresses the importance of systematic reviews of the evidence surrounding social learning practices.BBSRC David Phillips Fellowship (BB/H021817/1

Post-glacial determinants of regional species pools in alpine grasslands

[Aim] Alpine habitats support unique biodiversity confined to high-elevation areas in the current interglacial. Plant diversity in these habitats may respond to area, environment, connectivity and isolation, yet these factors have been rarely evaluated in concert. Here we investigate major determinants of regional species pools in alpine grasslands, and the responses of their constituent species groups.[Location] European mountains below 50° N.[Time period] Between 1928 and 2019.[Major taxa studied] Vascular plants.[Methods] We compiled species pools from alpine grasslands in 23 regions, including 794 alpine species and 2,094 non-alpines. We used species–area relationships to test the influence of the extent of alpine areas on regional richness, and mixed-effects models to compare the effects of 12 spatial and environmental predictors. Variation in species composition was addressed by generalized dissimilarity models and by a coefficient of dispersal direction to assess historical links among regions.[Results] Pool sizes were partially explained by current alpine areas, but the other predictors largely contributed to regional differences. The number of alpine species was influenced by area, calcareous bedrock, topographic heterogeneity and regional isolation, while non-alpines responded better to connectivity and climate. Regional dissimilarity of alpine species was explained by isolation and precipitation, but non-alpines only responded to isolation. Past dispersal routes were correlated with latitude, with alpine species showing stronger connections among regions.[Main conclusions] Besides area effects, edaphic, topographic and spatio-temporal determinants are important to understand the organization of regional species pools in alpine habitats. The number of alpine species is especially linked to refugia and isolation, but their composition is explained by past dispersal and post-glacial environmental filtering, while non-alpines are generally influenced by regional floras. New research on the dynamics of alpine biodiversity should contextualize the determinants of regional species pools and the responses of species with different ecological profiles.The authors thank Daniela Gaspar for support in GIS analyses. B.J.-A. thanks the Marie Curie Clarín-COFUND program of the Principality of Asturias-EU (ACB17-26), the regional grant IDI/2018/000151, and the Spanish Research Agency grant AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033. J.V.R.-D. was supported by the ACA17-02FP7 Marie Curie COFUND-Clarín grant. G.P.M. was funded by US National Science Foundation award 1853665. C.M. was funded by grant no. 19-28491 of the Czech Science Foundation.Peer reviewe

Key performance indicators for an energy community based on sustainable technologies

As reported in the \u201cClean energy for all Europeans package\u201d set by the EU, a sustainable transition from fossil fuels towards cleaner energy is necessary to improve the quality of life of citizens and the livability in cities. The exploitation of renewable sources, the improvement of energy performance in buildings and the need for cutting-edge national energy and climate plans represent important and urgent topics to be faced in order to implement the sustainability concept in urban areas. In addition, the spread of polygeneration microgrids and the recent development of energy communities enable a massive installation of renewable power plants, high-performance small-size cogeneration units, and electrical storage systems; moreover, properly designed local energy production systems make it possible to optimize the exploitation of green energy sources and reduce both energy supply costs and emissions. In the present paper, a set of key performance indicators is introduced in order to evaluate and compare different energy communities both from a technical and environmental point of view. The proposed methodology was used in order to assess and compare two sites characterized by the presence of sustainable energy infrastructures: the Savona Campus of the University of Genoa in Italy, where a polygeneration microgrid has been in operation since 2014 and new technologies will be installed in the near future, and the SPEED2030 District, an urban area near the Campus where renewable energy power plants (solar and wind), cogeneration units fed by hydrogen and storage systems are planned to be installed