Sampling for quality inspection and correction: AOQL performance criteria

Probability

Trading Robustness Requirements in Mars Entry Trajectory Design

One of the most important metrics characterizing an atmospheric entry trajectory in preliminary design is the size of its predicted landing ellipse. Often, requirements for this ellipse are set early in design and significantly influence both the expected scientific return from a particular mission and the cost of development. Requirements typically specify a certain probability level (6-level) for the prescribed ellipse, and frequently this latter requirement is taken at 36. However, searches for the justification of 36 as a robustness requirement suggest it is an empirical rule of thumb borrowed from non-aerospace fields. This paper presents an investigation into the sensitivity of trajectory performance to varying robustness (6-level) requirements. The treatment of robustness as a distinct objective is discussed, and an analysis framework is presented involving the manipulation of design variables to effect trades between performance and robustness objectives. The scenario for which this method is illustrated is the ballistic entry of an MSL-class Mars entry vehicle. Here, the design variable is entry flight path angle, and objectives are parachute deploy altitude performance and error ellipse robustness. Resulting plots show the sensitivities between these objectives and trends in the entry flight path angles required to design to these objectives. Relevance to the trajectory designer is discussed, as are potential steps for further development and use of this type of analysis

Can continental bogs with stand the pressure due to climate change?

Not all peatlands are alike. Theoretical and process based models suggest that ombrogenic, oligotrophic peatlands can withstand the pressures due to climate change because of the feedbacks among ecosystem production, decomposition and water storage. Although there have been many inductive explanations inferring from paleo-records, there is a lack of deductive empirical tests of the models predictions of these systems’ stability and there are few records of the changes in the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of peatlands that are long enough to examine the dynamics of the NECB in relation to climate variability. Continuous measurements of all the components of the NECB and the associated general climatic and environmental conditions have been made at the Mer Bleue (MB) peatland, a large, 28 km2, 5 m deep, raised ombro-oligotrophic, shrub and Sphagnum covered bog, near Ottawa, Canada from May 1, 1998 until the present. The sixteen-year daily CO2, CH4, and DOC flux and NECB covers a wide range of variability in peatland water storage from very dry to very wet growing seasons. We used the MB data to test the extent of MB peatland’s stability and the strength of the underlying key feedback between the NECB and changes in water storage projected by the models. In 2007 we published a six-year (1999-2004) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) for MB of ∼22 ± 40 g C m-2 yr-1, but we have since recalculated the 1998-2004 NECB to be 32 ± 40 g C m-2 yr-1 based on a reanalyzed average NEP of 51 ± 41 g C m-2 yr-1. Over the same period the net loss of C via the CH4 and DOC fluxes were -4 ± 1 and -15 ± 3 g C m-2 yr-1. The 1998-2004 six-year MB average NECB is similar to the long-term C accumulation rate, estimated from MB peat cores, for the last 3,000 years. The post 2004 MB NEP has increased to an average of ∼96 ± 32 g C m-2 yr-1 largely to there being generally wetter growing seasons. The losses of C via DOC (18 ± 1 g C m-2 yr-1) and CH4 (7 ± 4 g C m-2 yr-1) while showing considerable year-to-year variability are not significantly different post 2004. Hence, the proportional loss of C as DOC and CH4 in the MB NECB is slightly less post-2004 than it was before 2004 though the cumulative errors preclude statistically differences. As a result the MB NECB has increased to 79 ± 29 g C m-2 yr-1 post 2004 yielding a 14 year contemporary NECB of 56 ± 36 g C m-2 yr-1, which is double the long-term accumulation rate of C. The variability in the annual NECB and growing season mean NEP for the MB bog can be explained (r2 = 0.35, p \u3c 0.01) by the variability in growing season water table depth. These results suggest the carbon balance – water table feedback is sufficient enough to create stability in continental bogs so they will withstand a considerable amount of climate change

Angle of Attack Modulation for Mars Entry Terminal State Optimization

From the perspective of atmospheric entry, descent, and landing (EDL), one of the most foreboding destinations in the solar system is Mars due in part to its exceedingly thin atmosphere. To benchmark best possible scenarios for evaluation of potential Mars EDL system designs, a study is conducted to optimize the entry-to-terminal-state portion of EDL for a variety of entry velocities and vehicle masses, focusing on the identification of potential benefits of enabling angle of attack modulation. The terminal state is envisioned as one appropriate for the initiation of terminal descent via parachute or other means. A particle swarm optimizer varies entry flight path angle, ten bank profile points, and ten angle of attack profile points to find maximum-final-altitude trajectories for a 10 30 m ellipsled at 180 different combinations of values for entry mass, entry velocity, terminal Mach number, and minimum allowable altitude. Parametric plots of maximum achievable altitude are shown, as are examples of optimized trajectories. It is shown that appreciable terminal state altitude gains (2.5-4.0 km) over pure bank angle control may be possible if angle of attack modulation is enabled for Mars entry vehicles. Gains of this magnitude could prove to be enabling for missions requiring high-altitude landing sites. Conclusions are also drawn regarding trends in the bank and angle of attack profiles that produce the optimal trajectories in this study, and directions for future work are identified