Applicability and limitations of sensitivity analyses for wildlife management

Sensitivity analyses that assess the impact of changing vital rates on population growth have been widely used to guide conservation. If implemented with caution, they can provide guidance as to which management actions will optimize conservation outcomes. In this review, we first focus on the commonly used proportional sensitivity and elasticity analyses that change each vital rate by equal proportions, to assess their importance for wildlife management. These types of analyses also feature potential pitfalls and limitations, including (1) Each vital rate is usually on a different scale. Without appropriate scaling this can result in a flawed evaluation of the importance of vital rates. (2) Vital rates rarely change at equal proportions in nature. This can bring about misguided management recommendations on the basis of vital rate changes that are unrealistic. (3) Proportional sensitivity analyses often do not reflect the feasibility and effectiveness of altering particular demographic parameters. Consequently, relying solely on proportional sensitivities or elasticities can lead to flawed evaluation of the importance of vital rates and thus prioritization of management options that are unrealistic or ineffective. We outline alternative approaches, which involve assessing the impact of threats, the relative demography of stable and declining populations, the effect of observable variation of vital rates on population viability, and the potential effects of feasible management scenarios. Synthesis and applications. Sensitivity analyses are useful tools to guide wildlife management. If implemented and interpreted with care, sensitivity analyses can identify key demographic parameters and threats to population viability. However, their usefulness is limited, when applied without careful evaluation as to whether the perturbations evaluated are realistic, feasible and meet the need of wildlife managers. We caution against the over-reliance on proportional sensitivity and elasticity analyses and point to alternative approaches, including life-stage simulation analysis, vital rate sensitivity analysis or manual perturbations

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife

Very Cold Gas and Dark Matter

We have recently proposed a new candidate for baryonic dark matter: very cold molecular gas, in near-isothermal equilibrium with the cosmic background radiation at 2.73 K. The cold gas, of quasi-primordial abundances, is condensed in a fractal structure, resembling the hierarchical structure of the detected interstellar medium. We present some perspectives of detecting this very cold gas, either directly or indirectly. The H$_2$ molecule has an "ultrafine" structure, due to the interaction between the rotation-induced magnetic moment and the nuclear spins. But the lines fall in the km domain, and are very weak. The best opportunity might be the UV absorption of H$_2$ in front of quasars. The unexpected cold dust component, revealed by the COBE/FIRAS submillimetric results, could also be due to this very cold H$_2$ gas, through collision-induced radiation, or solid H$_2$ grains or snowflakes. The $\gamma$-ray distribution, much more radially extended than the supernovae at the origin of cosmic rays acceleration, also points towards and extended gas distribution.Comment: 16 pages, Latex pages, crckapb macro, 3 postscript figures, uuencoded compressed tar file. To be published in the proceeedings of the "Dust-Morphology" conference, Johannesburg, 22-26 January, 1996, D. Block (ed.), (Kluwer Dordrecht

A comparison of responses to raised extracellular potassium and endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF) in rat pressurised mesenteric arteries

The present study examined the hypothesis that potassium ions act as an endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF) released in response to ACh in small mesenteric arteries displaying myogenic tone. Small mesenteric arteries isolated from rats were set up in a pressure myograph at either 60 or 90 mmHg. After developing myogenic tone, responses to raising extracellular potassium were compared to those obtained with ACh (in the presence of nitric oxide synthase and cyclo- oxygenase inhibitors). The effects of barium and ouabain, or capsaicin, on responses to raised extracellular potassium or ACh were also determined. The effects of raised extracellular potassium levels and ACh on membrane potential, were measured using sharp microelectrodes in pressurised arteries. Rat small mesenteric arteries developed myogenic tone when pressurised. On the background of vascular tone set by a physiological stimulus (i.e pressure), ACh fully dilated the small arteries in a concentration-dependent manner. This response was relatively insensitive to the combination of barium and ouabain, and insensitive to capsaicin. Raising extracellular potassium produced a more inconsistent and modest vasodilator response in pressurised small mesenteric arteries. Responses to raising extracellular potassium were sensitive to capsaicin, and the combination of barium and ouabain. ACh caused a substantial hyperpolarisation in pressurized arteries, while raising extracellular potassium did not. These data indicate that K+ is not the EDHF released in response to ACh in myogenically active rat mesenteric small arteries. Since the hyperpolarization produced by ACh was sensitive to carbenoxolone, gap junctions are the likely mediator of EDH responses under physiological conditions

Prevalence and impact of alcohol and other drug use disorders on sedation and mechanical ventilation: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Experience suggests that patients with alcohol and other drug use disorders (AOD) are commonly cared for in our intensive care units (ICU's) and require more sedation. We sought to determine the impact of AOD on sedation requirement and mechanical ventilation (MV) duration. METHODS: Retrospective review of randomly selected records of adult patients undergoing MV in the medical ICU. Diagnoses of AOD were identified using strict criteria in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, and through review of medical records and toxicology results. RESULTS: Of the 70 MV patients reviewed, 27 had AOD (39%). Implicated substances were alcohol in 22 patients, cocaine in 5, heroin in 2, opioids in 2, marijuana in 2. There was no difference between AOD and non-AOD patients in age, race, or reason for MV, but patients with AOD were more likely to be male (21 versus 15, p < 0.0001) and had a lower mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (22 versus 26, p = 0.048). While AOD patients received more lorazepam equivalents (0.5 versus 0.2 mg/kg.day, p = 0.004), morphine equivalents (0.5 versus 0.1 mg/kg.day, p = 0.03) and longer duration of infusions (16 versus 10 hours/day. medication, p = 0.002), they had similar sedation levels (Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS) -2 versus -2, p = 0.83), incidence of agitation (RASS ≥ 3: 3.0% versus 2.4% of observations, p = 0.33), and duration of MV (3.6 versus 3.9 days, p = 0.89) as those without AOD. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of AOD among medical ICU patients undergoing MV is high. Patients with AOD receive higher doses of sedation than their non-AOD counterparts to achieve similar RASS scores but do not undergo longer duration of MV

Carnivore Translocations and Conservation: Insights from Population Models and Field Data for Fishers (Martes pennanti)

Translocations are frequently used to restore extirpated carnivore populations. Understanding the factors that influence translocation success is important because carnivore translocations can be time consuming, expensive, and controversial. Using population viability software, we modeled reintroductions of the fisher, a candidate for endangered or threatened status in the Pacific states of the US. Our model predicts that the most important factor influencing successful re-establishment of a fisher population is the number of adult females reintroduced (provided some males are also released). Data from 38 translocations of fishers in North America, including 30 reintroductions, 5 augmentations and 3 introductions, show that the number of females released was, indeed, a good predictor of success but that the number of males released, geographic region and proximity of the source population to the release site were also important predictors. The contradiction between model and data regarding males may relate to the assumption in the model that all males are equally good breeders. We hypothesize that many males may need to be released to insure a sufficient number of good breeders are included, probably large males. Seventy-seven percent of reintroductions with known outcomes (success or failure) succeeded; all 5 augmentations succeeded; but none of the 3 introductions succeeded. Reintroductions were instrumental in reestablishing fisher populations within their historical range and expanding the range from its most-contracted state (43% of the historical range) to its current state (68% of the historical range). To increase the likelihood of translocation success, we recommend that managers: 1) release as many fishers as possible, 2) release more females than males (55–60% females) when possible, 3) release as many adults as possible, especially large males, 4) release fishers from a nearby source population, 5) conduct a formal feasibility assessment, and 6) develop a comprehensive implementation plan that includes an active monitoring program

Perspectives of Australian higher education leadership: convergent or divergent views and implications for the future?

Leadership matters for the success of large enterprises and this is also the case for higher education institutions and universities. Yet, the public nature of universities and of academia means these institutions are usually highly dependent on external actors, in particular government. Viewed through a lens of distributed leadership, this paper explores how leaders in universities, national academies and government view and rate key changes associated with this pervasive reorientation and reorganisation of public higher education. It asks where do the views of leaders within universities and those outside universities converge and diverge and what patterns are evident in the differences between leaders? Drawing on 116 in-depth interviews and 114 follow-up surveys with senior higher education leaders in Australia, of which just over half were university senior executives, this paper concludes that all leaders surveyed are largely aligned in their views of most issues

Perspectives of Australian higher education leadership: convergent or divergent views and implications for the future?

Leadership matters for the success of large enterprises and this is also the case for higher education institutions and universities. Yet, the public nature of universities and of academia means these institutions are usually highly dependent on external actors, in particular government. Viewed through a lens of distributed leadership, this paper explores how leaders in universities, national academies and government view and rate key changes associated with this pervasive reorientation and reorganisation of public higher education. It asks where do the views of leaders within universities and those outside universities converge and diverge and what patterns are evident in the differences between leaders? Drawing on 116 in-depth interviews and 114 follow-up surveys with senior higher education leaders in Australia, of which just over half were university senior executives, this paper concludes that all leaders surveyed are largely aligned in their views of most issues