Decadal demographic shifts and size-dependent disturbance responses of corals in a subtropical warming hotspot

Funding supporting this research was provided by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE230100141) and a University of Sydney Fellowship to BS, by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CE140100020) to JMP and others, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE110001014) and the Winifred Violet Scott Charitable Trust to MB, the Royal Geographical Society’s Ralph Brown Expedition Grant to MB and JC, the Natural Environment Research Council’s Sphere Doctoral Training Partnership to JC and the Natural Environment Research Council’s ONE Planet Doctoral Training Partnership (NE/S007512/1) and the European Commission’s Erasmus Traineeship to LL. This project has further received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant agreement TRIM-DLV-747102 to MB.Long-term demographic studies at biogeographic transition zones can elucidate how body size mediates disturbance responses. Focusing on subtropical reefs in eastern Australia, we examine trends in the size-structure of corals with contrasting life-histories and zoogeographies surrounding the 2016 coral bleaching event (2010–2019) to determine their resilience and recovery capacity. We document demographic shifts, with disproportionate declines in the number of small corals and long-term persistence of larger corals. The incidence of bleaching (Pocillopora, Turbinaria) and partial mortality (Acropora, Pocillopora) increased with coral size, and bleached corals had greater risk of partial mortality. While endemic Pocillopora experienced marked declines, decadal stability of Turbinaria despite bleaching, coupled with abundance increase and bleaching resistance in Acropora indicate remarkable resilience of these taxa in the subtropics. Declines in the number of small corals and variable associations with environmental drivers indicate bottlenecks to recovery mediated by inhibitory effects of thermal extremes for Pocillopora (heat stress) and Acropora (heat and cold stress), and stimulatory effects of chlorophyll-a for Turbinaria. Although our study reveals signs of resilience, it foreshadows the vulnerability of subtropical corals to changing disturbance regimes that include marine heatwaves. Disparity in population dynamics suggest that subtropical reefs are ecologically distinct from tropical coral reefs.Peer reviewe

Fine-Tuning Heat Stress Algorithms to Optimise Global Predictions of Mass Coral Bleaching

Increasingly intense marine heatwaves threaten the persistence of many marine ecosystems. Heat stress-mediated episodes of mass coral bleaching have led to catastrophic coral mortality globally. Remotely monitoring and forecasting such biotic responses to heat stress is key for effective marine ecosystem management. The Degree Heating Week (DHW) metric, designed to monitor coral bleaching risk, reflects the duration and intensity of heat stress events and is computed by accumulating SST anomalies (HotSpot) relative to a stress threshold over a 12-week moving window. Despite significant improvements in the underlying SST datasets, corresponding revisions of the HotSpot threshold and accumulation window are still lacking. Here, we fine-tune the operational DHW algorithm to optimise coral bleaching predictions using the 5 km satellite-based SSTs (CoralTemp v3.1) and a global coral bleaching dataset (37,871 observations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). After developing 234 test DHW algorithms with different combinations of the HotSpot threshold and accumulation window, we compared their bleaching prediction ability using spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical models and sensitivity–specificity analyses. Peak DHW performance was reached using HotSpot thresholds less than or equal to the maximum of monthly means SST climatology (MMM) and accumulation windows of 4–8 weeks. This new configuration correctly predicted up to an additional 310 bleaching observations globally compared to the operational DHW algorithm, an improved hit rate of 7.9%. Given the detrimental impacts of marine heatwaves across ecosystems, heat stress algorithms could also be fine-tuned for other biological systems, improving scientific accuracy, and enabling ecosystem governance

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

FC is supported by the Panorama Doctoral Training Partnership (NE/S007458/1), the University of Hull and a JSPS London short-term pre-doctoral fellowship (PE22726). We acknowledge funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE110001014), an EU Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellowship (TRIM-DLV-747102), and a Winifred Violet Scott Estate grant to MB; a CSIRO top-up scholarship, an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE230100141), a University of Sydney Fellowship and a Chancellor's Postdoctoral Research Fellowship from the University of Technology Sydney to BS. Fieldwork was further supported by two Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence awards (CE0561435 and CE140100020) to JMP and others.Anthropogenic impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, but the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the size structure of coral communities remains poorly understood. This limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations across 20 sites along a tropical-to-subtropical environmental gradient on the east coast of Australia (~ 23 to 30°S), to determine how size structure changes with a gradient of sea surface temperature, turbidity, productivity and light levels. We use two approaches: 1) linear regression with summary statistics (such as median size) as response variables, a method frequently favoured by ecologists and 2) compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size?frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability. Together, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where conditions are typically more variable and stressful, than in tropical reefs. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival of smaller corals, slow growth, and/or poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs, as it implies that current marginal populations, or future reefs in increasingly stressful environmental conditions may have low recovery potential. We highlight the importance of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over biogeographic scales.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Abstract Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Anthropogenic impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, but the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the size structure of coral communities remains poorly understood. This limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations across 20 sites along a tropical-to-subtropical environmental gradient on the east coast of Australia (~ 23 to 30°S), to determine how size structure changes with a gradient of sea surface temperature, turbidity, productivity and light levels. We use two approaches: 1) linear regression with summary statistics (such as median size) as response variables, a method frequently favoured by ecologists and 2) compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size?frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability. Together, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where conditions are typically more variable and stressful, than in tropical reefs. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival of smaller corals, slow growth, and/or poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs, as it implies that current marginal populations, or future reefs in increasingly stressful environmental conditions may have low recovery potential. We highlight the importance of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over biogeographic scales

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

Coral reefs are facing unprecedented mass bleaching and mortality events due to marine heatwaves and climate change. To avoid extirpation, corals must adapt. Individual variation in heat tolerance and its heritability underpin the potential for coral adaptation. However, the magnitude of heat tolerance variability within coral populations is largely unresolved. We address this knowledge gap by exposing corals from a single reef to an experimental marine heatwave. We found that double the heat stress dosage was required to induce bleaching in the most-tolerant 10%, compared to the least-tolerant 10% of the population. By the end of the heat stress exposure, all of the least-tolerant corals were dead, whereas the most-tolerant remained alive. To contextualize the scale of this result over the coming century, we show that under an ambitious future emissions scenario, such differences in coral heat tolerance thresholds equate to up to 17 years delay until the onset of annual bleaching and mortality conditions. However, this delay is limited to only 10 years under a high emissions scenario. Our results show substantial variability in coral heat tolerance which suggests scope for natural or assisted evolution to limit the impacts of climate change in the short-term. For coral reefs to persist through the coming century, coral adaptation must keep pace with ocean warming, and ambitious emissions reductions must be realized

Effects of tourism-derived sewage on coral reefs: Isotopic assessments identify effective bioindicators

Pulau Redang and Pulau Tioman have experienced huge tourism growth over the last two decades, but minimal sewage treatment may threaten the resilience of their coral reefs. This study uses stable isotope techniques to identify suitable bioindicators of sewage nutrients (δ15N) at these islands by measuring macroalgae (Lobophora spp.), gastropods (Drupella spp.), scleractinian coral (Acropora spp.), and leather coral (Sinularia spp.). At tourist hubs using seepage septic tank systems, enrichment of Acropora δ15N (Redang, +0.7‰) and Sinularia δ15N (Tioman, +0.4‰) compared to pristine background levels indicate enhanced sewage nutrient discharge. Carbon isotopes and survey data suggest that sedimentation did not confound these δ15N trends. Potential damaging effects of sewage discharge on the coral reef communities at both islands are highlighted by strong correlations between Acropora δ15N and regional variation in coral reef community structure, and exclusive occurrence of degraded reefs at regions of high sewage influence

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Anthropogenic impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, but the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the size structure of coral communities remains poorly understood. This limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size-specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations across 20 sites along a tropical-to-subtropical environmental gradient on the east coast of Australia (~23°S to 30°S), to determine how size structure changes with a gradient of sea surface temperature, turbidity, productivity and light levels. We use two approaches: 1) linear regression with summary statistics (such as median size) as response variables, a method frequently favoured by ecologists; and 2) compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size-frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability. Together, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where conditions are typically more variable and stressful, than in tropical reefs. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival of smaller corals, slow growth, and / or poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs, as it implies that current marginal populations, or future reefs in increasingly stressful environmental conditions may have low recovery potential. We highlight the importance of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over biogeographic scales

A coral spawning calendar for Sesoko Station, Okinawa, Japan

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe