Properties of the urn randomization in clinical trials

In this article we review the important statistical properties of the urn randomization (design) for assigning patients to treatment groups in a clinical trial. The urn design is the most widely studied member of the family of adaptive biased-coin designs. Such designs are a compromise between designs that yield perfect balance in treatment assignments and complete randomization which eliminates experimental bias. The urn design forces a small-sized trial to be balanced but approaches complete randomization as the size of the trial (n) increases. Thus, the urn design is not as vulnerable to experimental bias as are other restricted randomization procedures.In a clinical trial it may be difficult to postulate that the study subjects constitute a random sample from a well-defined homogeneous population. In this case, a randomization model provides a preferred basis for statistical inference. We describe the large-sample permutational null distributions of linear rank statistics for testing the equality of treatment groups based on the urn design. In general, these permutation tests may be different from those based on the population model, which is equivalent to assuming complete randomization.Poststratified subgroup analyses can also be performed on the basis of the urn design permutational distribution. This provides a basis for analyzing the subset of patients with observed responses when some patients' responses can be assumed to be missing-at-random. For multiple mutually exclusive strata, these tests are correlated. For this case, a combined covariate-adjusted test of treatment effect is described.Finally, we show how to generalize the urn design to a prospectively stratified trial with a fairly large number of strata.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27039/1/0000027.pd

Mixed-Meal Tolerance Test Versus Glucagon Stimulation Test for the Assessment of β-Cell Function in Therapeutic Trials in Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE—β-Cell function in type 1 diabetes clinical trials is commonly measured by C-peptide response to a secretagogue in either a mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT) or a glucagon stimulation test (GST). The Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Research Group and the European C-peptide Trial (ECPT) Study Group conducted parallel randomized studies to compare the sensitivity, reproducibility, and tolerability of these procedures

Failure to Preserve β-Cell Function With Mycophenolate Mofetil and Daclizumab Combined Therapy in Patients With New- Onset Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE This trial tested whether mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) alone or with daclizumab (DZB) could arrest the loss of insulin-producing β-cells in subjects with new-onset type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A multi-center, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-masked trial was initiated by Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet at 13 sites in North America and Europe. Subjects diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and with sufficient C-peptide within 3 months of diagnosis were randomized to either MMF alone, MMF plus DZB, or placebo, and then followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was the geometric mean area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide from the 2-h mixed meal tolerance test. RESULTS One hundred and twenty-six subjects were randomized and treated during the trial. The geometric mean C-peptide AUC at 2 years was unaffected by MMF alone or MMF plus DZB versus placebo. Adverse events were more frequent in the active therapy groups relative to the control group, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS Neither MMF alone nor MMF in combination with DZB had an effect on the loss of C-peptide in subjects with new-onset type 1 diabetes. Higher doses or more targeted immunotherapies may be needed to affect the autoimmune process

Permutation tests following restricted randomization procedures

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/28639/1/0000453.pd

Randomization in clinical trials: Conclusions and recommendations

The statistical properties of simple (complete) randomization, permuted-block (or simply blocked) randomization, and the urn adaptive biased-coin randomization are summarized. These procedures are contrasted to covariate adaptive procedures such as minimization and to response adaptive procedures such as the play-the-winner rule. General recommendations are offered regarding the use of complete, permuted-block, or urn randomization. In a large double-masked trial, any of these procedures may be acceptable. For a given trial, the relative merits of each procedure should be carefully weighed in relation to the characteristics of the trial. Important considerations are the size of the trial, overall as well as within the smallest subgroup to be employed in a subgroup-specific analysis, whether or not the trial is to be masked, and the resources needed to perform the proper randomization-based permutational analysis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27041/1/0000029.pd

Sample Size Requirements for Studies of Treatment Effects on Beta-Cell Function in Newly Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes

Preservation of -cell function as measured by stimulated C-peptide has recently been accepted as a therapeutic target for subjects with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. In recently completed studies conducted by the Type 1 Diabetes Trial Network (TrialNet), repeated 2-hour Mixed Meal Tolerance Tests (MMTT) were obtained for up to 24 months from 156 subjects with up to 3 months duration of type 1 diabetes at the time of study enrollment. These data provide the information needed to more accurately determine the sample size needed for future studies of the effects of new agents on the 2-hour area under the curve (AUC) of the C-peptide values. The natural log(), log(+1) and square-root transformations of the AUC were assessed. In general, a transformation of the data is needed to better satisfy the normality assumptions for commonly used statistical tests. Statistical analysis of the raw and transformed data are provided to estimate the mean levels over time and the residual variation in untreated subjects that allow sample size calculations for future studies at either 12 or 24 months of follow-up and among children 8–12 years of age, adolescents (13–17 years) and adults (18+ years). The sample size needed to detect a given relative (percentage) difference with treatment versus control is greater at 24 months than at 12 months of follow-up, and differs among age categories. Owing to greater residual variation among those 13–17 years of age, a larger sample size is required for this age group. Methods are also described for assessment of sample size for mixtures of subjects among the age categories. Statistical expressions are presented for the presentation of analyses of log(+1) and transformed values in terms of the original units of measurement (pmol/ml). Analyses using different transformations are described for the TrialNet study of masked anti-CD20 (rituximab) versus masked placebo. These results provide the information needed to accurately evaluate the sample size for studies of new agents to preserve C-peptide levels in newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes

Significance of Epicardial and Intrathoracic Adipose Tissue Volume among Type 1 Diabetes Patients in the DCCT/EDIC: A Pilot Study.

Introduction Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) patients are at increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). This pilot study sought to evaluate the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and intra-thoracic adipose tissue (IAT) volumes and cardio-metabolic risk factors in T1DM. Method EAT/IAT volumes in 100 patients, underwent non-contrast cardiac computed tomography in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial /Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study were measured by a certified reader. Fat was defined as pixels’ density of -30 to -190 Hounsfield Unit. The associations were assessed using–Pearson partial correlation and linear regression models adjusted for gender and age with inverse probability sample weighting. Results The weighted mean age was 43 years (range 32–57) and 53% were male. Adjusted for gender, Pearson correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between age and EAT/IAT volumes (both p Conclusion T1DM patients with greater BMI, WTH ratio, weighted HbA1c level, triglyceride level and AER≥300/ESRD had significantly larger EAT/IAT volumes. Larger sample size studies are recommended to evaluate independency

Heart failure outcomes with empagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk: results of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME® trial.

AIMS: We previously reported that in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME(®) trial, empagliflozin added to standard of care reduced the risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, cardiovascular and all-cause death, and hospitalization for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. We have now further investigated heart failure outcomes in all patients and in subgroups, including patients with or without baseline heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were randomized to receive empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo. Seven thousand and twenty patients were treated; 706 (10.1%) had heart failure at baseline. Heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in a significantly lower percentage of patients treated with empagliflozin [265/4687 patients (5.7%)] than with placebo [198/2333 patients (8.5%)] [hazard ratio, HR: 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.55-0.79); P \u3c 0.001], corresponding to a number needed to treat to prevent one heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death of 35 over 3 years. Consistent effects of empagliflozin were observed across subgroups defined by baseline characteristics, including patients with vs. without heart failure, and across categories of medications to treat diabetes and/or heart failure. Empagliflozin improved other heart failure outcomes, including hospitalization for or death from heart failure [2.8 vs. 4.5%; HR: 0.61 (0.47-0.79); P \u3c 0.001] and was associated with a reduction in all-cause hospitalization [36.8 vs. 39.6%; HR: 0.89 (0.82-0.96); P = 0.003]. Serious adverse events and adverse events leading to discontinuation were reported by a higher proportion of patients with vs. without heart failure at baseline in both treatment groups, but were no more common with empagliflozin than with placebo. CONCLUSION: In patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk, empagliflozin reduced heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death, with a consistent benefit in patients with and without baseline heart failure

Measurement of the Muon Decay Parameter delta

The muon decay parameter delta has been measured by the TWIST collaboration. We find delta = 0.74964 +- 0.00066(stat.) +- 0.00112(syst.), consistent with the Standard Model value of 3/4. This result implies that the product Pmuxi of the muon polarization in pion decay, Pmu, and the muon decay parameter xi falls within the 90% confidence interval 0.9960 < Pmuxi < xi < 1.0040. It also has implications for left-right-symmetric and other extensions of the Standard Model.Comment: Extended to 5 pages. Referee's comments answere