Estimating Asian terrestrial carbon fluxes from CONTRAIL aircraft and surface CO2 observations for the period 2006 to 2010

Current estimates of the terrestrial carbon fluxes in Asia show large uncertainties particularly in the boreal and mid-latitudes and in China. In this paper, we present an updated carbon flux estimate for Asia ("Asia" refers to lands as far west as the Urals and is divided into boreal Eurasia, temperate Eurasia and tropical Asia based on TransCom regions) by introducing aircraft CO2 measurements from the CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airline) program into an inversion modeling system based on the CarbonTracker framework. We estimated the averaged annual total Asian terrestrial land CO2 sink was about -1.56 Pg C yr-1 over the period 2006–2010, which offsets about one-third of the fossil fuel emission from Asia (+4.15 Pg C yr-1). The uncertainty of the terrestrial uptake estimate was derived from a set of sensitivity tests and ranged from -1.07 to -1.80 Pg C yr-1, comparable to the formal Gaussian error of ±1.18 Pg C yr-1 (1-sigma). The largest sink was found in forests, predominantly in coniferous forests (-0.64 ± 0.70 Pg C yr-1) and mixed forests (-0.14 ± 0.27 Pg C yr-1); and the second and third large carbon sinks were found in grass/shrub lands and croplands, accounting for -0.44 ± 0.48 Pg C yr-1 and -0.20 ± 0.48 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The carbon fluxes per ecosystem type have large a priori Gaussian uncertainties, and the reduction of uncertainty based on assimilation of sparse observations over Asia is modest (8.7–25.5%) for most individual ecosystems. The ecosystem flux adjustments follow the detailed a priori spatial patterns by design, which further increases the reliance on the a priori biosphere exchange model. The peak-to-peak amplitude of inter-annual variability (IAV) was 0.57 Pg C yr-1 ranging from -1.71 Pg C yr-1 to -2.28 Pg C yr-1. The IAV analysis reveals that the Asian CO2 sink was sensitive to climate variations, with the lowest uptake in 2010 concurrent with a summer flood and autumn drought and the largest CO2 sink in 2009 owing to favorable temperature and plentiful precipitation conditions. We also found the inclusion of the CONTRAIL data in the inversion modeling system reduced the uncertainty by 11% over the whole Asian region, with a large reduction in the southeast of boreal Eurasia, southeast of temperate Eurasia and most tropical Asian areas

Climate related shifts in the NCP ecosystem, and consequences for future spatial planning

Een uitgebreide meetinspanning op de Noordzee, in combinatie met wiskundige en statistische modellering, laat zien dat de klimaatveranderingen in de vorm van een verandering in de overheersende windrichting, een toename van de windsnelheid, een toename van de zeewatertemperatuur, als wel als een toenemende CO2 concentratie van de atmosfeer, niet alleen leidt tot een verandering van de samenstelling van het zeewater in de vorm van bijvoorbeeld opgelost anorganisch koolstof en zuurgraad, maar ook tot een, zei het beperkte, verlaging van de productiviteit van op en in de zeebodem levende filterende organismen, die op hun beurt het voedsel zijn van bodembewonende vissen

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018

Changes in surface hydrology, soil moisture, and Gross Primary Productivity in the Amazon during the 2015/2016 El Niño

This zip file contains XX individual NetCDF files with the data used for the publication of van Schaik et al. 2018 in the Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society. Full description of the methodology used to create these numbers is available from the publication and its Supplement

Continuous measurements of atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide on a North Sea gas platform

A new atmospheric measurement station has been established on the North Sea oil and gas production platform F3, 200 km north off the Dutch coast (54°51' N, 4°44' E). Atmospheric concentrations of O2 and CO2 are continuously measured using fuel cell technology and compact infrared absorption instruments, respectively. Furthermore, the station includes an automated air flask sampler for laboratory analysis of the atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, CO and O2 and isotope measurements of δ13C, δ18O and Δ14C from CO2. This station is the first fixed sea based station with on-site continuous O2 and CO2 measurements and therefore yields valuable information about the CO2 uptake in coastal marine regions, specifically the North Sea. This paper presents the measurement station and the used methodologies in detail. In comparison to land-based stations, the data show low day-to-day variability, as they are practically free of nightly inversions as well as human influences, due to the station’s remoteness. Therefore, the data set collected at this measurement station serves directly as background data for the coastal northwest European region. Additionally, the first data are presented showing the seasonal cycle as expected during August 2008 through June 2009. Furthermore, some short-term O2 and CO2 signals are presented. The observations at the platform include several large and fast changing negative atmospheric O2 excursions without an accompanying change in the CO2 signal, which most likely indicate marine O2 uptake.

CO2, δO2/N2 and APO: observations from the Lutjewad, Mace Head and F3 platform flask sampling network

We report results from our atmospheric flask sampling network for three European sites: Lutjewad in the Netherlands, Mace Head in Ireland and the North Sea F3 platform. The air samples from these stations are analyzed for their CO2 and O2 concentrations. In this paper we present the CO2 and O2 data series from these sites between 1998 and 2009, as well as the atmospheric potential oxygen (APO). The seasonal pattern and long term trends agree to a large extent between our three measurement locations. We however find a changing gradient between Mace Head and Lutjewad, both for CO2 and O2. To explain the potential contribution of fossil fuel emissions to this changing gradient we use an atmospheric transport model in combination with CO2 emission data and information on the fossil fuel mix per region. Using the APO trend from Mace Head we obtain an estimate for the global oceanic CO2 uptake of 1.8±0.8 PgC/year.

Atmospheric CO2, δ(O2/N2) and δ13CO2 measurements at Jungfraujoch, Switzerland: results from a flask sampling intercomparison program

We present results from an intercomparison program of CO2, δ(O2/N2) and δ13CO2 measurements from atmospheric flask samples. Flask samples are collected on a bi-weekly basis at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch in Switzerland for three European laboratories: the University of Bern, Switzerland, the University of Groningen, the Netherlands and the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany. Almost 4 years of measurements of CO2, δ(O2/N2) and δ13CO2 are compared in this paper to assess the measurement compatibility of the three laboratories. While the average difference for the CO2 measurements between the laboratories in Bern and Jena meets the required compatibility goal as defined by the World Meteorological Organization, the standard deviation of the average differences between all laboratories is not within the required goal. However, the obtained annual trend and seasonalities are the same within their estimated uncertainties. For δ(O2/N2) significant differences are observed between the three laboratories. The comparison for δ13CO2 yields the least compatible results and the required goals are not met between the three laboratories. Our study shows the importance of regular intercomparison exercises to identify potential biases between laboratories and the need to improve the quality of atmospheric measurements.

The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990-2018

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results, and inverse modelling estimates, over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national GHG inventories (NGHGI) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGI, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGI and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011–2015, the CO2 land sources/sinks from NGHGI estimates report −90 Tg C yr−1 ± 30 Tg C while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of −98 Tg yr−1 (± 362 Tg C from DGVMs only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr−1 ± 400 T g C yr−1). This concludes that a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGI b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a "verification" because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux" obtained from different approache