Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques

Anatomical Network Comparison of Human Upper and Lower, Newborn and Adult, and Normal and Abnormal Limbs, with Notes on Development, Pathology and Limb Serial Homology vs. Homoplasy

How do the various anatomical parts (modules) of the animal body evolve into very different integrated forms (integration) yet still function properly without decreasing the individual's survival? This long-standing question remains unanswered for multiple reasons, including lack of consensus about conceptual definitions and approaches, as well as a reasonable bias toward the study of hard tissues over soft tissues. A major difficulty concerns the non-trivial technical hurdles of addressing this problem, specifically the lack of quantitative tools to quantify and compare variation across multiple disparate anatomical parts and tissue types. In this paper we apply for the first time a powerful new quantitative tool, Anatomical Network Analysis (AnNA), to examine and compare in detail the musculoskeletal modularity and integration of normal and abnormal human upper and lower limbs. In contrast to other morphological methods, the strength of AnNA is that it allows efficient and direct empirical comparisons among body parts with even vastly different architectures (e.g. upper and lower limbs) and diverse or complex tissue composition (e.g. bones, cartilages and muscles), by quantifying the spatial organization of these parts-their topological patterns relative to each other-using tools borrowed from network theory. Our results reveal similarities between the skeletal networks of the normal newborn/adult upper limb vs. lower limb, with exception to the shoulder vs. pelvis. However, when muscles are included, the overall musculoskeletal network organization of the upper limb is strikingly different from that of the lower limb, particularly that of the more proximal structures of each limb. Importantly, the obtained data provide further evidence to be added to the vast amount of paleontological, gross anatomical, developmental, molecular and embryological data recently obtained that contradicts the long-standing dogma that the upper and lower limbs are serial homologues. In addition, the AnNA of the limbs of a trisomy 18 human fetus strongly supports Pere Alberch's ill-named "logic of monsters" hypothesis, and contradicts the commonly accepted idea that birth defects often lead to lower integration (i.e. more parcellation) of anatomical structures

Calf health from birth to weaning. II. Management of diarrhoea in pre-weaned calves

Calfhood diseases have a major impact on the economic viability of cattle operations. The second of this three part review series considers the management of diarrhoeic diseases in pre-weaned calves. In neonatal calf diarrhoea, oral rehydration therapy is the single most important therapeutic measure to be carried out by the farmer and is usually successful if instigated immediately after diarrhoea has developed. Continued feeding of milk or milk replacer to diarrhoeic calves is important, to prevent malnourishment and weight loss in affected calves. Indiscriminative antibiotic treatment of uncomplicated diarrhoea is discouraged, whereas systemically ill calves can benefit from systemic antibiotic treatment for the prevention of septicaemia or concurrent diseases. Ancillary treatments and specific preventive measures are discussed. Eimeriosis has a high economic impact on the farming industries due to direct cost of treatment and calf losses, but especially due to decreased performance of clinically as well as sub-clinically affected animals. Emphasis lies on prophylactic or metaphylactic treatment, since the degree of damage to the intestinal mucosa once diarrhoea has developed, makes therapeutic intervention unrewarding

Serological Markers Suggest Heterogeneity of Effectiveness of Malaria Control Interventions on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

BACKGROUND: In order to control and eliminate malaria, areas of on-going transmission need to be identified and targeted for malaria control interventions. Immediately following intense interventions, malaria transmission can become more heterogeneous if interventions are more successful in some areas than others. Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, has been subject to comprehensive malaria control interventions since 2004. This has resulted in substantial reductions in the parasite burden, although this drop has not been uniform across the island. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2008, filter paper blood samples were collected from 7387 people in a cross-sectional study incorporating 18 sentinel sites across Bioko, Equatorial Guinea. Antibodies were measured to P. falciparum Apical Membrane Antigen-1 (AMA-1) by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Age-specific seropositivity rates were used to estimate seroconversion rates (SCR). Analysis indicated there had been at least a 60% decline in SCR in four out of five regions on the island. Changes in SCR showed a high degree of congruence with changes in parasite rate (PR) and with regional reductions in all cause child mortality. The mean age adjusted concentration of anti-AMA-1 antibodies was mapped to identify areas where individual antibody responses were higher than expected. This approach confirmed the North West of the island as a major focus of continuing infection and an area where control interventions need to be concentrated or re-evaluated. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: Both SCR and PR revealed heterogeneity in malaria transmission and demonstrated the variable effectiveness of malaria control measures. This work confirms the utility of serological analysis as an adjunct measure for monitoring transmission. Age-specific seroprevalence based evidence of changes in transmission over time will be of particular value when no baseline data are available. Importantly, SCR data provide additional evidence to link malaria control activities to contemporaneous reductions in all-cause child mortality

MODEM: a comprehensive approach to modelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for dementia. Protocol paper

Background The MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia) explores how changes in arrangements for the future treatment and care of people living with dementia, and support for family and other unpaid carers, could result in better outcomes and more efficient use of resources. Methods MODEM starts with a systematic mapping of the literature on effective and (potentially) cost-effective interventions in dementia care. Those findings, as well as data from a cohort, will then be used to model the quality of life and cost impacts of making these evidence-based interventions more widely available in England over the period from now to 2040. Modelling will use a suite of models, combining microsimulation and macrosimulation methods, modelling the costs and outcomes of care, both for an individual over the life-course from the point of dementia diagnosis, and for individuals and England as a whole in a particular year. Project outputs will include an online Dementia Evidence Toolkit, making evidence summaries and a literature database available free to anyone, papers in academic journals and other written outputs, and a MODEM Legacy Model, which will enable local commissioners of services to apply the model to their own populations. Discussion Modelling the effects of evidence-based cost-effective interventions and making this information widely available has the potential to improve the health and quality of life both of people with dementia and their carers, while ensuring that resources are used efficiently

Cost-Effectiveness of Intermittent Preventive Treatment of Malaria in Pregnancy in Southern Mozambique

BACKGROUND: Malaria in pregnancy is a public health problem for endemic countries. Economic evaluations of malaria preventive strategies in pregnancy are needed to guide health policies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This analysis was carried out in the context of a trial of malaria intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP), where both intervention groups received an insecticide treated net through the antenatal clinic (ANC) in Mozambique. The cost-effectiveness of IPTp-SP on maternal clinical malaria and neonatal survival was estimated. Correlation and threshold analyses were undertaken to assess the main factors affecting the economic outcomes and the cut-off values beyond which the intervention is no longer cost-effective. In 2007 US$, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for maternal malaria was 41.46 US$ (95% CI 20.5, 96.7) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. The ICER per DALY averted due to the reduction in neonatal mortality was 1.08 US$(95$ (95% CI 0.42, 3.21) per DALY averted. Efficacy was the main factor affecting the economic evaluation of IPTp-SP. The intervention remained cost-effective with an increase in drug cost per dose up to 11 times in the case of maternal malaria and 183 times in the case of neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: IPTp-SP was highly cost-effective for both prevention of maternal malaria and reduction of neonatal mortality in Mozambique. These findings are likely to hold for other settings where IPTp-SP is implemented through ANC visits. The intervention remained cost-effective even with a significant increase in drug and other intervention costs. Improvements in the protective efficacy of the intervention would increase its cost-effectiveness. Provision of IPTp with a more effective, although more expensive drug than SP may still remain a cost-effective public health measure to prevent malaria in pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00209781

Efficacy and adverse effects of intravenous lignocaine therapy in fibromyalgia syndrome

BACKGROUND: To investigate the effects of intravenous lignocaine infusions (IV lignocaine) in fibromyalgia. METHODS: Prospective study of the adverse effects of IV lignocaine in 106 patients with fibromyalgia; retrospective questionnaire study of the efficacy of IV lignocaine in 50 patients with fibromyalgia. RESULTS: Prospective study: Two major (pulmonary oedema and supraventricular tachycardia) and 42 minor side-effects were reported. None had long-term sequelae. The commonest was hypotension (17 cases). Retrospective study: Pain and a range of psychosocial measures (on single 11-point scales) improved significantly after treatment. There was no effect of the treatment on work status. The average duration of pain relief after the 6-day course of treatment was 11.5 ± 6.5 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous lignocaine appears to be both safe and of benefit in improving pain and quality of life for patients with fibromyalgia. This needs to be confirmed in prospective randomised controlled trials

Physics of Neutron Star Crusts

The physics of neutron star crusts is vast, involving many different research fields, from nuclear and condensed matter physics to general relativity. This review summarizes the progress, which has been achieved over the last few years, in modeling neutron star crusts, both at the microscopic and macroscopic levels. The confrontation of these theoretical models with observations is also briefly discussed.Comment: 182 pages, published version available at <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2008-10