Computing Equilibria of Prediction Markets via Persuasion

We study the computation of equilibria in prediction markets in perhaps the most fundamental special case with two players and three trading opportunities. To do so, we show equivalence of prediction market equilibria with those of a simpler signaling game with commitment introduced by Kong and Schoenebeck (2018). We then extend their results by giving computationally efficient algorithms for additional parameter regimes. Our approach leverages a new connection between prediction markets and Bayesian persuasion, which also reveals interesting conceptual insights

TIPIT: A randomised controlled trial of thyroxine in preterm infants under 28 weeks gestation: Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Magnetic Resonance Angiography protocol

<p>Abstract </p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infants born at extreme prematurity are at high risk of developmental disability. A major risk factor for disability is having a low level of thyroid hormone described as hypothyroxinaemia, which is recognised to be a frequent phenomenon in these infants. Derangements of critical thyroid function during the sensitive window in prematurity when early development occurs, may have a range of long term effects for brain development. Further research in preterm infants using neuroimaging techniques will increase our understanding of the specificity of the effects of hypothyroxinaemia on the developing foetal brain. This is an explanatory double blinded randomised controlled trial which is aimed to assess the effect of thyroid hormone supplementation on brain size, key brain structures, extent of myelination, white matter integrity and vessel morphology, somatic growth and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study is a multi-centred double blinded randomised controlled trial of thyroid hormone supplementation in babies born below 28 weeks' gestation. All infants will receive either levothyroxine or placebo until 32 weeks corrected gestational age. The primary outcomes will be width of the sub-arachnoid space measured using cranial ultrasound and head circumference at 36 weeks corrected gestational age. The secondary outcomes will be thyroid hormone concentrations, the hypothalamic pituitary axis status and auxological data between birth and expected date of delivery; thyroid gland volume, brain size, volumes of key brain structures, extent of myelination and brain vessel morphology at expected date of delivery and markers of morbidity which include duration of mechanical ventilation and/or oxygen requirement and chronic lung disease.</p> <p><b>Trial registration</b></p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN89493983</p

TIPIT: A randomised controlled trial of thyroxine in preterm infants under 28 weeks' gestation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infants born at extreme prematurity (below 28 weeks' gestation) are at high risk of developmental disability. A major risk factor for disability is having a low level of thyroid hormone which is recognised to be a frequent phenomenon in these infants. At present it is unclear whether low levels of thyroid hormone are a cause of disability, or a consequence of concurrent adversity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose an explanatory multi-centre double blind randomised controlled trial of thyroid hormone supplementation in babies born below 28 weeks' gestation. All infants will receive either levothyroxine or placebo until 32 weeks' corrected gestational age. The primary outcome will be brain growth. This will be assessed by the width of the sub-arachnoid space measured using cranial ultrasound and head circumference at 36 weeks' corrected gestational. The secondary outcomes will be (a) thyroid hormone concentrations measured at increasing postnatal age, (b) status of the hypothalamic pituitary axis, (c) auxological data between birth and 36 weeks' corrected gestational age, (d) thyroid gland volume, (e) volumes of brain structures (measured by magnetic resonance imaging), (f) determination of the extent of myelination and white matter integrity (measured by diffusion weighted MRI) and brain vessel morphology (measured by magnetic resonance angiography) at expected date of delivery and (g) markers of morbidity including duration of mechanical ventilation and chronic lung disease.</p> <p>We will also examine how activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis modulates the effects of thyroid supplementation. This will contribute to decisions about which confounding variables to assess in large-scale studies.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN89493983</p

Development of a Management Algorithm for Post-operative Pain (MAPP) after total knee and total hip replacement: study rationale and design.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from clinical practice and the extant literature suggests that post-operative pain assessment and treatment is often suboptimal. Poor pain management is likely to persist until pain management practices become consistent with guidelines developed from the best available scientific evidence. This work will address the priority in healthcare of improving the quality of pain management by standardising evidence-based care processes through the incorporation of an algorithm derived from best evidence into clinical practice. In this paper, the methodology for the creation and implementation of such an algorithm that will focus, in the first instance, on patients who have undergone total hip or knee replacement is described. METHODS: In partnership with clinicians, and based on best available evidence, the aim of the Management Algorithm for Post-operative Pain (MAPP) project is to develop, implement, and evaluate an algorithm designed to support pain management decision-making for patients after orthopaedic surgery. The algorithm will provide guidance for the prescription and administration of multimodal analgesics in the post-operative period, and the treatment of breakthrough pain. The MAPP project is a multisite study with one coordinating hospital and two supporting (rollout) hospitals. The design of this project is a pre-implementation-post-implementation evaluation and will be conducted over three phases. The Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (PARiHS) framework will be used to guide implementation. Outcome measurements will be taken 10 weeks post-implementation of the MAPP. The primary outcomes are: proportion of patients prescribed multimodal analgesics in accordance with the MAPP; and proportion of patients with moderate to severe pain intensity at rest. These data will be compared to the pre-implementation analgesic prescribing practices and pain outcome measures. A secondary outcome, the efficacy of the MAPP, will be measured by comparing pain intensity scores of patients where the MAPP guidelines were or were not followed. DISCUSSION: The outcomes of this study have relevance for nursing and medical professionals as well as informing health service evaluation. In establishing a framework for the sustainable implementation and evaluation of a standardised approach to post-operative pain management, the findings have implications for clinicians and patients within multiple surgical contexts

The Winchcombe meteorite, a unique and pristine witness from the outer solar system.

Direct links between carbonaceous chondrites and their parent bodies in the solar system are rare. The Winchcombe meteorite is the most accurately recorded carbonaceous chondrite fall. Its pre-atmospheric orbit and cosmic-ray exposure age confirm that it arrived on Earth shortly after ejection from a primitive asteroid. Recovered only hours after falling, the composition of the Winchcombe meteorite is largely unmodified by the terrestrial environment. It contains abundant hydrated silicates formed during fluid-rock reactions, and carbon- and nitrogen-bearing organic matter including soluble protein amino acids. The near-pristine hydrogen isotopic composition of the Winchcombe meteorite is comparable to the terrestrial hydrosphere, providing further evidence that volatile-rich carbonaceous asteroids played an important role in the origin of Earth's water