THE IDENTIFICATION OF ENEMY INTENTIONS THROUGH OBSERVATION OF LONG LEAD-TIME MILITARY PREPARATIONS

Intuitively, we would expect that an increase in the military preparations of potential enemies imply that the rival perceives an increase in the likelihood of future conflict. In this paper, we present a simple model that suggests that, surprisingly, the relationship is ambiguous. We find that (a) the specification of the social utility function; and (b) the rate of substitution between long and short lead-time preparations in the production of defense capability play a role in determining whether rivals respond to an increased future threat, by increasing or decreasing their long lead-time preparations.International Relations/Trade,

Why Training Doesn't Stick: Who is to Blame?

This article, "Why Training Doesn't Stick," presupposes that it does not, and that, as a matter of course, it is a waste of precious dollars to send someone to a workshop or a seminar for training. Soon after training goes the assumption that the trainee will be doing things the old way. While acknowledging that at least sometimes that training does stick, the author has come to understand that the conditions under which training is successful are so specific and so rarely met that when it happens it is the exception rather than the rule. "Who is to blame?" The author answers that question by explaining how we can turn the tables and make "training that sticks" the rule rather than the exception.published or submitted for publicatio

DEATH (MACHINES) AND TAXES

In the defense policy literature, it is widely believed that there is a pronounced bias towards the procurement of a less than optimal number of excessively sophisticated weapons. In this paper, we consider the possibility that this perceived bias is the result of the timing and informational structure of defense procurement decisions, and the inter-relationship of this structure with overall fiscal policy. Specifically, this paper presents a model that suggests that tax smoothing considerations of the type first articulated in Barro (1979) could lead social welfare maximizing decision makers to choose a higher level of weapon quality than would be optimal if government revenue could be raised without resort to distortionary taxation.Defense procurement, Weapon quality, Tax smoothing, Public Economics, H57,

Estimating Residual Faults from Code Coverage

Many reliability prediction techniques require an estimate for the number of residual faults. In this paper, a new theory is developed for using test coverage to estimate the number of residual faults. This theory is applied to a specific example with known faults and the results agree well with the theory. The theory is used to justify the use of linear extrapolation to estimate residual faults. It is also shown that it is important to establish the amount of unreachable code in order to make a realistic residual fault estimate

Beyond Tax Smoothing

Analyses of optimal government capital structure generally follow Bohn (1990) and Barro (1995) in assuming risk neutrality or an exogenous risk premium. These analyses usually conclude that the optimal government capital structure stabilizes tax rates over time and states of nature to the greatest extent possible, something known as "tax smoothing." In this paper, we show that when an endogenous risk premium is introduced, the optimal government capital structure will no longer smooth tax rates. Under likely conditions, the optimal structure requires a larger short position in risky assets than that implied by tax smoothin

Real and ideal water rights:the prospects for water-rights reform in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank

The ideal water contract for a heterogeneous population of users is a prioritized right that is fully vested and fully tradable. A set of tradable, prioritized rights contracts will span the same space as the Debreu contingent commodities. Therefore, they lead to a competitive equilibrium that is Pareto optimal. Equal sharing of water shortfalls does not have this property.Existing water policies in Israel and the Disputed Territories are not characterized by an efficient set of water contracts. The system misallocates water over both time and space.Current policies are driven by strategic and ideological objectives. With peace, reform of water policies will become politically feasible. The paper concludes with a proposal for a new water-allocation system

Reliability: Management, Methods and Mathematics

Includes bibliography.Mode of access: Internet

A test for Allee effects in the self-incompatible wasp-pollinated milkweed Gomphocarpus physocarpus

It has been suggested that plants which are good colonizers will generally have either an ability to self-fertilize or a generalist pollination system. This prediction is based on the idea that these reproductive traits should confer resistance to Allee effects in founder populations and was tested using Gomphocarpus physocarpus (Asclepiadoideae; Apocynaceae), a species native to South Africa that is invasive in other parts of the world. We found no significant relationships between the size of G. physocarpus populations and various measures of pollination success (pollen deposition, pollen removal, and pollen transfer efficiency) and fruit set. A breeding system experiment showed that plants in a South African population are genetically self-incompatible and thus obligate outcrossers. Out-crossing is further enhanced by mechanical reconfiguration of removed pollinaria before the pollinia can be deposited. Selfpollination is reduced when such reconfiguration exceeds the average duration of pollinator visits to a plant. Observations suggest that a wide variety of wasp species in the genera Belonogaster and Polistes (Vespidae) are the primary pollinators. We conclude that efficient pollination of plants in small founding populations, resulting from their generalist wasp-pollination system, contributes in part to the colonizing success of G. physocarpus. The presence of similar wasps in other parts of the world has evidently facilitated the expansion of the range of this milkweed

Enterprising community development corporations--nonprofit housing innovation in metropolitan Washington, D.C.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1990.Title as it appears in the Sept. 1990 M.I.T. Graduate List: Enterprising community development corporations--non-profit housing innovation in metropolitan Washington, D.C.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 141-150).by Hershel S. Lipow.M.S

NBOMe Toxicity and Fatalities: A Review of the Literature

In the decade since the introduction of the novel synthetic hallucinogen NBOMe into the consumer market, this drug has become an increasingly prevalent, yet poorly understood cause of altered mental status (AMS) resulting in hospitalization. In this literature review, we conducted a PubMed query for mentions of NBOMe ingestion since Suzuki et al.’s publication of their 2015 review. Among English language publications published between October 2014 and June 8, 2021, were sixteen case reports and six case series detailing a total of 42 cases of NBOMe toxicity. Notably, 26 (62%) patients experienced tachycardia, 22 (52%) had hypertension, 34 (81%) experienced hallucinations. Nine of 42 cases ended in fatality, including six cases of apparent direct NBOMe toxicity, one death by suicide, and two cases of fatalities from trauma after “excited delirium.” At least seven individuals believed that they had purchased and consumed LSD. This updated review of the literature underlines the high prevalence of fatality associated with NBOMe ingestion, as well as the need for increased knowledge among law enforcement and emergency medical providers of the toxidrome of NBOMe when responding to cases of AMS