Tests of Bayesian Model Selection Techniques for Gravitational Wave Astronomy

The analysis of gravitational wave data involves many model selection problems. The most important example is the detection problem of selecting between the data being consistent with instrument noise alone, or instrument noise and a gravitational wave signal. The analysis of data from ground based gravitational wave detectors is mostly conducted using classical statistics, and methods such as the Neyman-Pearson criteria are used for model selection. Future space based detectors, such as the \emph{Laser Interferometer Space Antenna} (LISA), are expected to produced rich data streams containing the signals from many millions of sources. Determining the number of sources that are resolvable, and the most appropriate description of each source poses a challenging model selection problem that may best be addressed in a Bayesian framework. An important class of LISA sources are the millions of low-mass binary systems within our own galaxy, tens of thousands of which will be detectable. Not only are the number of sources unknown, but so are the number of parameters required to model the waveforms. For example, a significant subset of the resolvable galactic binaries will exhibit orbital frequency evolution, while a smaller number will have measurable eccentricity. In the Bayesian approach to model selection one needs to compute the Bayes factor between competing models. Here we explore various methods for computing Bayes factors in the context of determining which galactic binaries have measurable frequency evolution. The methods explored include a Reverse Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm, Savage-Dickie density ratios, the Schwarz-Bayes Information Criterion (BIC), and the Laplace approximation to the model evidence. We find good agreement between all of the approaches.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

Design study of modification of m-1 liquid hydrogen turbopump for use in nuclear reactor test facility

Modification of M- 1 liquid hydrogen turbopump for use in Phoebus nuclear reacto

IDWG, salt and water – an audit of dialysis staff. British Journal of Renal Medicine.

Our haemodialysis service comprises two teaching hospital-based centres and six satellite units, which merged some years ago. The teaching hospitals were traditionally managed by separate groups of dietitians and dialysis staff. Consequently, there were differences in practice within the service, including the methods used to determine an acceptable interdialytic weight gain (IDWG). High IDWG is regarded as a negative factor due to associated intradialytic hypotension, interdialytic hypertension and cardiovascular disease.1 As such, patients with excessive IDWG are frequently advised to limit their daily fluid intake and may be encouraged to reduce their salt intake because of the association between salt intake and thirst.2 Different members of the multidisciplinary team (MDT) act as advisors in this area. This may lead to confusion and non-compliance if the information is conflicting or provided in a negative manner.3 We undertook an audit throughout the haemodialysis service to standardise the advice given to patients. This article reports the results of a questionnaire used to determine how staff respond to excessive IDWG. It also examined their knowledge of the salt and fluid content of common foods

Temporal Stream Logic: Synthesis beyond the Bools

Reactive systems that operate in environments with complex data, such as mobile apps or embedded controllers with many sensors, are difficult to synthesize. Synthesis tools usually fail for such systems because the state space resulting from the discretization of the data is too large. We introduce TSL, a new temporal logic that separates control and data. We provide a CEGAR-based synthesis approach for the construction of implementations that are guaranteed to satisfy a TSL specification for all possible instantiations of the data processing functions. TSL provides an attractive trade-off for synthesis. On the one hand, synthesis from TSL, unlike synthesis from standard temporal logics, is undecidable in general. On the other hand, however, synthesis from TSL is scalable, because it is independent of the complexity of the handled data. Among other benchmarks, we have successfully synthesized a music player Android app and a controller for an autonomous vehicle in the Open Race Car Simulator (TORCS.

Minimum Decision Cost for Quantum Ensembles

For a given ensemble of $N$ independent and identically prepared particles, we calculate the binary decision costs of different strategies for measurement of polarised spin 1/2 particles. The result proves that, for any given values of the prior probabilities and any number of constituent particles, the cost for a combined measurement is always less than or equal to that for any combination of separate measurements upon sub-ensembles. The Bayes cost, which is that associated with the optimal strategy (i.e., a combined measurement) is obtained in a simple closed form.Comment: 11 pages, uses RevTe

34631 Do patients with vitiligo and health care professionals treating them recognize the burden in living with the disease in the United States? Findings from the VALIANT study

Vitiligo is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by the destruction of melanocytes, resulting in pale or white patches of skin. The population-based Vitiligo and Life Impact Among International Communities (VALIANT) study sought to understand the impact and burden of vitiligo on quality of life (QoL) from the patient and physician perspective from around the world. The VALIANT study recruited adult participants (aged ≥18 years who self-reported a vitiligo diagnosis) via an online panel. Participants were asked questions regarding their mental health, psychosocial burden, and behavior in professional and social situations. Separately, health care professionals (HCPs; physicians, nurse practitioners, or physician assistants) who treat patients with vitiligo completed an online-based questionnaire. In the United States, 608 patients and 250 HCPs (166 dermatologists and 84 primary care providers) participated in the survey. Confidence in the ability to improve QoL and long-term psychological outcomes of their patients with vitiligo was noted in 67% and 58% of HCPs, respectively. HCPs and patients were asked the same questions regarding avoidance/impact behaviors; concordance was achieved on items such as wearing certain clothing to cover vitiligo lesions and avoiding going to beach/pool/social events. However, HCPs often underestimated the impact of vitiligo compared with the patient’s perspective in other areas, such as making career choices (33% vs 51%), managing other medical diseases (25% vs 49%), and obtaining other preventive care (20% vs 49%). In summary, increased understanding between HCPs and patients with vitiligo regarding a holistic understanding of the psychological burden and mental health of patients is needed

Are black holes over-produced during preheating?

We provide a simple but robust argument that primordial black hole (PBH) production generically does {\em not} exceed astrophysical bounds during the resonant preheating phase after inflation. This conclusion is supported by fully nonlinear lattice simulations of various models in two and three dimensions which include rescattering but neglect metric perturbations. We examine the degree to which preheating amplifies density perturbations at the Hubble scale and show that at the end of the parametric resonance, power spectra are universal, with no memory of the power spectrum at the end of inflation. In addition we show how the probability distribution of density perturbations changes from exponential on very small scales to Gaussian when smoothed over the Hubble scale -- the crucial length for studies of primordial black hole formation -- hence justifying the standard assumption of Gaussianity.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, revtex, added references for section

34612 Exploring the natural history of vitiligo in the United States: Findings from the VALIANT study

Vitiligo is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by the destruction of melanocytes, resulting in depigmented skin lesions. Epidemiology studies in vitiligo are often limited to smaller sample sizes and rely on dermatology clinics as the source population. The population-based Vitiligo and Life Impact Among International Communities (VALIANT) study sought to understand the natural history of vitiligo among patients around the world. Here, data from US participants are presented. Participants were recruited via an online panel. Adults (aged ≥18 years) who self-reported a vitiligo diagnosis by a health care professional were eligible to participate. Of 608 US patients, 58% were male; median (range) age at the time of the survey was 36 (18–83) years. Mean disease duration was 11 years, with a mean 1.6 years between first noticing lesions and achieving a formal diagnosis. More than one-third of patients were previously misdiagnosed (37%), with higher rates among patients with darker skin types (67% for Fitzpatrick types IV–VI). Nearly two-thirds (62%) directly sought treatment for vitiligo; vitiligo was an incidental finding in the remaining 38%. Nearly two-thirds (64%) were diagnosed by a dermatologist, or a nurse practitioner or physician assistant in a dermatology-focused practice. Most patients (71%) noted a family history of vitiligo (comparable paternal vs maternal). Median body surface area affected by vitiligo was 4.23%, as measured by the self-assessed Vitiligo Extent Scale. In summary, these findings provide a new perspective on the diagnosis journey for patients with vitiligo and highlight the need for accurate, more timely diagnosis

Cultural change in the FCA, PRA & Bank of England: Practising what they preach?

Our report examines how the culture of the financial regulators contributed to the financial crisis. It assesses the actions taken by the UK’s financial regulators to change their culture. It identifies the progress which has been made and the barriers encountered. To gather information we interviewed current and former staff at the regulators together with stakeholders from large and small financial institutions, consumer and SME groups and regulatory experts. The report includes the reactions from staff at the regulators to the cultural change programmes and the perceptions of external stakeholders