Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model

We forecast income growth over the period 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies, we allow for life uncertainty and migrations, use generational accounting studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010-2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing its gap with the US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.aging, forecast, computable general equilibrium, education, experience

Income Growth in the 21st century : forecasts with an overlapping generations model

We forecast income growth over the periode 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible t changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010-2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing its gap with US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.Aging, Forecast, Computable General Equilibrium, Education, Experience

Risk to Human Health from a Plethora of Simian Immunodeficiency Viruses in Primate Bushmeat

To assess human exposure to Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) in west central Africa, we looked for SIV infection in 788 monkeys that were hunted in the rainforests of Cameroon for bushmeat or kept as pets. Serologic reactivity suggesting SIV infection was found in 13 of 16 primate species, including 4 not previously known to harbor SIV. Overall, 131 sera (16.6%) reacted strongly and an additional 34 (4.3%) reacted weakly with HIV antigens. Molecular analysis identified five new phylogenetic SIV lineages. These data document for the first time that a substantial proportion of wild monkeys in Cameroon are SIV infected and that humans who hunt and handle bushmeat are exposed to a plethora of genetically highly divergent viruses

A Blueprint for Real-Time Functional Mapping via Human Intracranial Recordings

International audienceBACKGROUND: The surgical treatment of patients with intractable epilepsy is preceded by a pre-surgical evaluation period during which intracranial EEG recordings are performed to identify the epileptogenic network and provide a functional map of eloquent cerebral areas that need to be spared to minimize the risk of post-operative deficits. A growing body of research based on such invasive recordings indicates that cortical oscillations at various frequencies, especially in the gamma range (40 to 150 Hz), can provide efficient markers of task-related neural network activity. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we introduce a novel real-time investigation framework for mapping human brain functions based on online visualization of the spectral power of the ongoing intracranial activity. The results obtained with the first two implanted epilepsy patients who used the proposed online system illustrate its feasibility and utility both for clinical applications, as a complementary tool to electrical stimulation for presurgical mapping purposes, and for basic research, as an exploratory tool used to detect correlations between behavior and oscillatory power modulations. Furthermore, our findings suggest a putative role for high gamma oscillations in higher-order auditory processing involved in speech and music perception. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The proposed real-time setup is a promising tool for presurgical mapping, the investigation of functional brain dynamics, and possibly for neurofeedback training and brain computer interfaces

Fast reproducible identification and large-scale databasing of individual functional cognitive networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although cognitive processes such as reading and calculation are associated with reproducible cerebral networks, inter-individual variability is considerable. Understanding the origins of this variability will require the elaboration of large multimodal databases compiling behavioral, anatomical, genetic and functional neuroimaging data over hundreds of subjects. With this goal in mind, we designed a simple and fast acquisition procedure based on a 5-minute functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) sequence that can be run as easily and as systematically as an anatomical scan, and is therefore used in every subject undergoing fMRI in our laboratory. This protocol captures the cerebral bases of auditory and visual perception, motor actions, reading, language comprehension and mental calculation at an individual level.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>81 subjects were successfully scanned. Before describing inter-individual variability, we demonstrated in the present study the reliability of individual functional data obtained with this short protocol. Considering the anatomical variability, we then needed to correctly describe individual functional networks in a voxel-free space. We applied then non-voxel based methods that automatically extract main features of individual patterns of activation: group analyses performed on these individual data not only converge to those reported with a more conventional voxel-based random effect analysis, but also keep information concerning variance in location and degrees of activation across subjects.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This collection of individual fMRI data will help to describe the cerebral inter-subject variability of the correlates of some language, calculation and sensorimotor tasks. In association with demographic, anatomical, behavioral and genetic data, this protocol will serve as the cornerstone to establish a hybrid database of hundreds of subjects suitable to study the range and causes of variation in the cerebral bases of numerous mental processes.</p

LIAM2: an open-source microsimulation tool

LIAM2, a new open source development tool Monday 9th December Presenters: Gijs Dekkers and Philippe Liegeois Venue: University of Canberra. Meet at Copland Computer Laboratory COP G025 Australian National University, at 8:45am to travel to University of Canberra. Registration, tea and coffee will be available at the University of Canberra from 9am, with a 9:30am start time. The objective of this course is to introduce the microsimulation toolbox LIAM2 (http://liam2.plan.be/) and give the opportunity to participants to elaborate from scratch, simulate and analyse a simple dynamic model, while being introduced to more advanced topics. The session will be separated into two parts. First, the basic functionalities of LIAM2 will be introduced by means of a practical examples and a rudimentary model elaborated and discussed. This includes the transformation of a starting dataset from CSV to hdf5 data format used by LIAM2. Next, some more advanced topics will be covered. After this presentation, the participants will know enough to start their own development of a static or dynamic microsimulation model, to transfer their own datasets to the LIAM2/hdf5-format and to produce understandable output tables, while being aware of more specific functionalities. See http://www.microsimulation.org/conferences-and-workshops/4th-conference-canberra/training-courses/status: publishe

LIAM2: an open-source microsimulation tool

Most existing microsimulation models have been developed by separate (teams of) researchers. The drawback of each team working on its own is that they have to put a lot of time and effort in the customary development of fairly general simulation tools. Hence, economies of scale cannot be exploited, which makes microsimulation models even more expensive than strictly necessary. Furthermore, as modellers often are not professional programmers, the result is not necessarily the most efficient in terms of simulation speed. By contrast, LIAM2 is a free, open source, user-friendly modelling and simulation framework, not tied to a particular model. It is made as generic as possible so that it can be used to develop almost any type of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation model with cross-sectional dynamic ageing (i.e. all individuals are simulated at the same time for one period, then for the next period, etc.). LIAM2 is clearly aiming to separate ‘modellers’ from ‘programmers’, where the former are responsible for the model while the latter are providing the toolbox using state-of-the-art methods for data-handling and speed optimization. As a result, a model like MIDAS in Belgium (3500 lines of code, 142 parameters, 132 variables) simulated over 60 years with 2.2 million individuals initially) could be developed in a user-friendly environment and is run in less than 3 hours. To date, LIAM2 has been adopted by modellers in Belgium, Luxembourg, Hungary, Japan, France and Italy. Extensive testing is going on in the Netherlands and the UK. About this session This session is intended as an extensive introduction for those that have no prior knowledge of LIAM2. The session is separated into two parts. First, the main characteristics of LIAM2 are presented and the framework situated in the family of modelling packages. The second phase of the presentation consists of illustrating the functionalities of LIAM2 by means of a number of simple models. Furthermore, the transformation of a starting dataset from CSV to hdf5 data format used by LIAM2 will be illustrated as well. After this presentation, the participants will know enough to start their own development of a static or dynamic microsimulation model, to transfer their own datasets to the LIAM2/hdf5-format, and to produce understandable output tables.One-day training to be given in the context of the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association, Canberra, Australiastatus: publishe

Combining EUROMOD and LIAM Tools for the development of dynamic cross-sectional microssimulation models: a sneak preview

This chapter makes a first attempt to embed the static microsimulation model EUROMOD for Luxembourg with MIDAS_LU, a dynamic microsimulation forward-looking population model available in Luxembourg as well. The latter is developed by means of LIAM (Life-Cycle Income Analysis Model), a toolbox for the development of dynamic cross-sectional microsimulation models.status: publishe