Quantifying trends in disease impact to produce a consistent and reproducible definition of an emerging infectious disease.

The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease's current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as "emerging infectious diseases" (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label 'emerging' is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled "emerging," and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases. Segmented regression identifies one or more trends in a time series and determines the most statistically parsimonious split(s) (or joinpoints) in the time series. These joinpoints in the time series indicate time points when a change in trend occurred and may identify periods in which drivers of disease impact change. We illustrate the method by analyzing temporal patterns in incidence data for twelve diseases. This approach provides a way to classify a disease as currently emerging, re-emerging, receding, or stable based on temporal trends, as well as to pinpoint the time when the change in these trends happened. We argue that quantitative approaches to defining emergence based on the trend in impact of a disease can, with appropriate context, be used to prioritize resources for research and control. Implementing this more rigorous definition of an EID will require buy-in and enforcement from scientists, policy makers, peer reviewers and journal editors, but has the potential to improve resource allocation for global health

The role of impulsivity in the aetiology of drug dependence: reward sensitivity versus automaticity

Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tCopyright © The Author(s) 2011.RATIONALE: Impulsivity has long been known as a risk factor for drug dependence, but the mechanisms underpinning this association are unclear. Impulsivity may confer hypersensitivity to drug reinforcement which establishes higher rates of instrumental drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviour, or may confer a propensity for automatic (non-intentional) control over drug-seeking/taking and thus intransigence to clinical intervention. METHOD: The current study sought to distinguish these two accounts by measuring Barratt Impulsivity and craving to smoke in 100 smokers prior to their completion of an instrumental concurrent choice task for tobacco (to measure the rate of drug-seeking) and an ad libitum smoking test (to measure the rate of drug-taking-number of puffs consumed). RESULTS: The results showed that impulsivity was not associated with higher rates of drug-seeking/taking, but individual differences in smoking uptake and craving were. Rather, nonplanning impulsivity moderated (decreased) the relationship between craving and drug-taking, but not drug-seeking. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that whereas the uptake of drug use is mediated by hypervaluation of the drug as an instrumental goal, the orthogonal trait nonplanning impulsivity confers a propensity for automatic control over well-practiced drug-taking behaviour.MR

Protocol for the ROSE sustainment (ROSES) study, a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial to determine the minimum necessary intervention to maintain a postpartum depression prevention program in prenatal clinics serving low-income women

Background: More research on sustainment of interventions is needed, especially return on investment (ROI) studies to determine cost-benefit trade-offs for effort required to sustain and how much is gained when effective programs are sustained. The ROSE sustainment (ROSES) study uses a sequential multiple assignment randomized (SMART) design to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a stepwise approach to sustainment of the ROSE postpartum depression prevention program in 90 outpatient clinics providing prenatal care to pregnant women on public assistance. Postpartum depression (PPD) is common and can have lasting consequences. Outpatient clinics offering prenatal care are an opportune place to provide PPD prevention because most women visit while pregnant. The ROSE (Reach Out, Stay Strong, Essentials for mothers of newborns) program is a group educational intervention to prevent PPD, delivered during pregnancy. ROSE has been found to reduce cases of PPD in community prenatal settings serving low-income pregnant women. Methods: All 90 prenatal clinics will receive enhanced implementation as usual (EIAU; initial training + tools for sustainment). At the first time at which a clinic is determined to be at risk for failure to sustain (i.e., at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 months), that clinic will be randomized to receive either (1) no additional implementation support (i.e., EIAU only), or (2) low-intensity coaching and feedback (LICF). If clinics receiving LICF are still at risk at subsequent assessments, they will be randomized to either (1) EIAU + LICF only, or (2) high-intensity coaching and feedback (HICF). Additional follow-up interviews will occur at 18, 24, and 30 months, but no implementation intervention will occur after 18 months. Outcomes include (1) percent sustainment of core program elements at each time point, (2) health impact (PPD rates over time at each clinic) and reach, and (3) ROI (costs and cost-effectiveness) of each sustainment step. Hypothesized mechanisms include sustainment of capacity to deliver core elements and engagement/ownership. Discussion: This study is the first randomized trial evaluating the ROI of a stepped approach to sustainment, a critical unanswered question in implementation science. It will also advance knowledge of implementation mechanisms and clinical care for an at-risk population

Alcohol devaluation has dissociable effects on distinct components of alcohol behaviour

Rationale Substance-related behaviour is often viewed as an appetitive behaviour, motivated by the reinforcing effects of the drug. However, there are various indices of substance motivation (e.g. attentional bias, behavioural economic demand, craving) and it is unclear how these are related or whether they play an important role in all types of substance-related behaviour. Objectives (1) To determine the effect of alcohol devaluation on several indices of alcohol motivation and goal-directed and cue-elicited alcohol behaviour. (2) To investigate which components of motivation mediate any effect of devaluation on behaviour. Methods Sixty-two social drinkers gave baseline measures of alcohol craving, behavioural economic demand and choice for alcohol vs. soft drink. Participants tasted alcohol which was either unadulterated (control) or adulterated with a bitter solution (devaluation) before craving and demand were measured again. Alcohol choice was assessed in several phases: extinction (evaluating goal-directed behaviour), in the presence of drink cues (Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT, cue-elicited behaviour)), and reacquisition. Attentional bias (AB) was measured by tracking eye movements towards the drink cues during novel PIT trials where both cues were presented. Finally, consumption was evaluated in a taste test. Results Alcohol devaluation reduced alcohol-related demand, AB, alcohol choice in all phases, and consumption. Alcohol cues presented during PIT increased alcohol choice above baseline irrespective of devaluation. AB and demand for alcohol fully mediated the effect of devaluation on alcohol choice during extinction, AB fully mediated the effect on cue-elicited (specific PIT) alcohol choice and alcohol consumption. Conclusions Alcohol behaviour in social drinkers is largely sensitive to devaluation, i.e. governed by current motivational value of the drug (suggesting goal-directed behaviour). However, a dissociable form of stimulus control can also drive alcohol-seeking independently of drug value (specific PIT). Mediation analyses suggests that AB may play a paradoxical role in both forms of alcohol seeking and consumption

Doublecortin maintains bipolar shape and nuclear translocation during migration in the adult forebrain

The ability of the mature mammalian nervous system to continually produce neuronal precursors is of considerable importance, as manipulation of this process might one day permit the replacement of cells lost as a result of injury or disease. In mammals, the anterior subventricular zone (SVZa) region is one of the primary sites of adult neurogenesis. Here we show that doublecortin (DCX), a widely used marker for newly generated neurons, when deleted in mice results in a severe morphological defect in the rostral migratory stream and delayed neuronal migration that is independent of direction or responsiveness to Slit chemorepulsion. DCX is required for nuclear translocation and maintenance of bipolar morphology during migration of these cells. Our data identifies a critical function for DCX in the movement of newly generated neurons in the adult brain