GCRF African SWIFT and ForPAc SHEAR White Paper on the Potential of Operational Weather Prediction to Save Lives and Improve Livelihoods and Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa

The ‘silent revolution’ of numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to significant social benefits and billions of dollars in economic benefits to mid-latitude countries, however the level of benefit in sub-Saharan Africa has been very limited, despite the potential to save lives, improve livelihoods, protect property and infrastructure and boost economies. Ongoing climate change in Africa, and the associated projected intensification of weather impacts in coming decades, makes the realisation of effective and more reliable weather forecasts and climate services even more urgent. It is widely recognised that to achieve this potential, investment is required in strengthening decision makers’ understanding of weather predictions and confidence in interpreting and appropriately applying forecasts, alongside transparent communication of the levels of skill and probability or certainty in forecast products. However, on all time scales of prediction, it is generally unrecognised that many forecasts that produce user-relevant metrics have such low skill that they are only marginally valuable to stakeholders, creating significant practical and ethical barriers to increasing uptake and generating benefits. Here, we present substantial evidence that even a modest investment in science for weather information and forecast techniques, to provide new technology and tools for Africa, can significantly increase the skill of user-relevant forecast products on all time scales. This will be a necessary enabler for building trust in and uptake of decision-relevant forecasts with the potential to deliver significant social and economic benefits. We present here an argument that incremental improvements in the skill of weather forecasting across all timescales in the African tropics, alongside strengthening communication and understanding of these forecasts, is fundamental to saving lives and enhancing livelihoods. Investing in the capacity and capability of National Meteorological Services and research institutions is essential to ensure lifesaving and life-enhancing services continue to be developed with and designed to serve the populations of sub-Saharan countries

A lack of association between elevated serum levels of S100B protein and autoimmunity in autistic children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>S100B is a calcium-binding protein that is produced primarily by astrocytes. Increased serum S100B protein levels reflect neurological damage. Autoimmunity may have a role in the pathogenesis of autism in some patients. Autoantibodies may cross the blood-brain barrier and combine with brain tissue antigens, forming immune complexes and resulting in neurological damage. We are the first to investigate the relationship between serum levels of S100B protein, a marker of neuronal damage, and antiribosomal P protein antibodies in autistic children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Serum S100B protein and antiribosomal P antibodies were measured in 64 autistic children in comparison to 46 matched healthy children.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Autistic children had significantly higher serum S100B protein levels than healthy controls (<it>P </it>< 0.001). Children with severe autism had significantly higher serum S100B protein than patients with mild to moderate autism (<it>P </it>= 0.01). Increased serum levels of antiribosomal P antibodies were found in 40.6% of autistic children. There were no significant correlations between serum levels of S100B protein and antiribosomal P antibodies (<it>P </it>= 0.29).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>S100B protein levels were elevated in autistic children and significantly correlated to autistic severity. This may indicate the presence of an underlying neuropathological condition in autistic patients. Antiribosomal P antibodies may not be a possible contributing factor to the elevated serum levels of S100B protein in some autistic children. However, further research is warranted to investigate the possible link between serum S100B protein levels and other autoantibodies, which are possible indicators of autoimmunity to central nervous system in autism.</p

Contrast-enhancement cardiac magnetic resonance imaging beyond the scope of viability

The clinical applications of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging with contrast enhancement are expanding. Besides the direct visualisation of viable and non-viable myocardium, this technique is increasingly used in a variety of cardiac disorders to determine the exact aetiology, guide proper treatment, and predict outcome and prognosis. In this review, we discuss the value of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging with contrast enhancement in a range of cardiac disorders, in which this technique may provide insights beyond the scope of myocardial viability

Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Regulation and functional role of the Runt-related transcription factor-2 in pancreatic cancer

Recent evidence suggests that Runt-related transcription factors play a role in different human tumours. In the present study, the localisation of the Runt-related transcription factor-2 (Runx2), its transcriptional activity, as well as its regulation of expression was analysed in human pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Quantitative real-time PCR and immunohistochemistry were used for Runx2 expression and localisation analysis. Runt-related transcription factor-2 expression was silenced using specific siRNA oligonucleotides in pancreatic cancer cells (Panc-1) and immortalised pancreatic stellate cells (IPSCs). Overexpression of Runx2 was achieved using a full-length expression vector. TGF-β1, BMP2, and other cytokines were assessed for their potential to regulate Runx2 expression. There was a 6.1-fold increase in median Runx2 mRNA levels in PDAC tissues compared to normal pancreatic tissues (P<0.0001). Runt-related transcription factor-2 was localised in pancreatic cancer cells, tubular complexes, and PanIN lesions of PDAC tissues as well as in tumour-associated fibroblasts/stellate cells. Coculture of IPSCs and Panc-1 cells, as well as treatment with TGF-β1 and BMP2, led to increased Runx2 expression in Panc-1 cells. Runt-related transcription factor-2 overexpression was associated with decreased MMP1 release as well as decreased growth and invasion of Panc-1 cells. These effects were reversed by Runx2 silencing. In conclusion, Runx2 is overexpressed in PDAC, where it is regulated by certain cytokines such as TGF-β1 and BMP2 in an auto- and paracrine manner. In addition, Runx2 has the potential to regulate the transcription of extracellular matrix modulators such as SPARC and MMP1, thereby influencing the tumour microenvironment

Limits on active to sterile neutrino oscillations from disappearance searches in the MINOS, Daya Bay, and bugey-3 experiments

Searches for a light sterile neutrino have been performed independently by the MINOS and the Daya Bay experiments using the muon (anti)neutrino and electron antineutrino disappearance channels, respectively. In this Letter, results from both experiments are combined with those from the Bugey-3 reactor neutrino experiment to constrain oscillations into light sterile neutrinos. The three experiments are sensitive to complementary regions of parameter space, enabling the combined analysis to probe regions allowed by the Liquid Scintillator Neutrino Detector (LSND) and MiniBooNE experiments in a minimally extended four-neutrino flavor framework. Stringent limits on sin^2 2θμe are set over 6 orders of magnitude in the sterile mass-squared splitting Δm^2 41. The sterile-neutrino mixing phase space allowed by the LSND and MiniBooNE experiments is excluded for Δm^2 41 < 0.8 eV^2 at 95% CLs

The detector system of the Daya Bay reactor neutrino experiment

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