Solar Cycle Modulation of Total Irradiance: an Empirical Model from 1874 to 1988

Evidence acquired during the past decade indicates that over time scales of the solar cycle, enhanced emission from bright solar faculae cause significant variations in the sun's total irradiance even though, on shorter time scales, the most pronounced variations are those resulting from the passage of dark sunspots across the solar disc. An empirical model which accounts for the competing effects of dark sunspots and bright faculae has been developed from the available radiometry in cycle 21, and extended back to the beginning of solar cycle 12. According to this model, the largest 11-year modulation of total irradiance during the C20th occurred in the most recent cycle 21

Changes in BMI and waist circumference in Scottish adults: use of repeated cross-sectional surveys to explore multiple age groups and birth-cohorts

Objective: To document changes in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) over a 10-year period 1998-2008, in representative surveys of adults.<p></p> Subjects: Adults aged 18-72 in the Scottish Health Surveys conducted in 1998, 2003 and 2008 were divided, separately for men and women, into eleven 5-year age bands. ‘Synthetic birth-cohorts’ were created by dividing participants into thirteen 5-years-of-birth bands (n=20,423). Weight, height and waist circumference were objectively measured by trained observers.<p></p> Results: Subjects with data available on BMI/waist circumference were 7743/6894 in 1998, 5838/4437 in 2003 and 4688/925 in 2008 with approximately equal gender distributions. Mean BMI and waist were both greater in successive surveys in both men and women. At most specific ages, people were consistently heavier in 2008 than in 1998 by about 1-1.5 BMI units, and waist circumferences were greater, by about 2-6 cm in men and 5-7 cm in women. Greater increases were seen at younger ages between 1998 and 2003 than between 2003 and 2008, however increases continued at older ages, particularly in waist. All birth-cohorts observed over the 10 years 1998-2008 showed increases in both BMI and waist, most marked in the younger groups. The 10-year increases in waist within birth-cohorts (mean 7.4 cm (8.1%) in men and 8.6 cm (10.9%) in women) were more striking than BMI (mean 1.8 kg/m2 (6.6%) in men and 1.5 kg/m2 (6.4%) in women) were particularly steep in older women.<p></p> Conclusion: People were heavier and fatter in 2003 than those of the same age in 1998, with less marked increases in WC between 2003 and 2008 than 1998 and 2003. There were proportionally greater increases in waist circumference than BMI, especially in older women. This suggests a disproportionate increase in body fat, compared to muscle, particularly among older women.<p></p&gt

Eating the elephant whole or in slices: views of participants in a smoking cessation intervention trial on multiple behaviour changes as sequential or concurrent tasks

Background: This paper explores smoking cessation participants’ perceptions of attempting weight management alongside smoking cessation within the context of a health improvement intervention implemented in Glasgow, Scotland. <p/>Methods: One hundred and thirty-eight participants were recruited from smoking cessation classes in areas of multiple deprivation in Glasgow and randomised to intervention, receiving dietary advice, or to control groups. The primary outcome of the study was to determine the % change in body weight. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 15 intervention and 15 control participants at weeks 6 (during the intervention) and 24 (at the end of the intervention). The current paper, though predominantly qualitative, links perceptions of behaviour modification to % weight change and cessation rates at week 24 thereby enabling a better understanding of the mediators influencing multiple behaviour change. <p/>Results: Our findings suggest that participants who perceive separate behaviour changes as part of a broader approach to a healthier lifestyle, and hence attempt behaviour changes concurrently, may be at comparative advantage in positively achieving dual outcomes. <p/>Conclusions: These findings highlight the need to assess participants’ preference for attempting multiple behaviour changes sequentially or simultaneously in addition to assessing their readiness to change. Further testing of this hypothesis is warranted

Weight management: a comparison of existing dietary approaches in a work-site setting

<b>OBJECTIVES:</b> (1) To compare the effectiveness a 2512 kJ (600 kcal) daily energy deficit diet (ED) with a 6279 kJ (1500 kcal) generalized low-calorie diet (GLC) over a 24 week period (12 weeks weight loss plus 12 weeks weight maintenance). (2) To determine if the inclusion of lean red meat at least five times per week as part of a slimming diet is compatible with weight loss in comparison with a diet that excludes lean red meat. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. <b>SETTING:</b> Large petrochemical work-site. <b>PARTICIPANTS:</b> One-hundred and twenty-two men aged between 18 and 55 y. <b>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:</b> Weight loss and maintenance of weight loss. <b>INTERVENTION:</b> Eligible volunteers were randomized to one of the four diet=meat combinations (ED meat, ED no meat, GLC meat, GLC no meat). One-third of subjects in each diet/meat combination were randomized to an initial control period prior to receiving dietary advice. All subjects attended for review every 2 weeks during the weight loss period. For the 12 week structured weight maintenance phase, individualized energy prescriptions were re-calculated for the ED group as 1.4 (activity factor)x basal metabolic rate. Healthy eating advice was reviewed with subjects in the GLC group. All subjects were contacted by electronic mail at 2 week intervals and anthropometric and dietary information requested. <b>RESULTS:</b> No difference was evident between diet groups in mean weight loss at 12 weeks (4.3 (s.d. 3.4) kg ED group vs 5.0 (s.d. 3.5) kg GLC group, P=0.34). Mean weight loss was closer to the intended weight loss in the 2512 kJ (600 kcal) ED group. The dropout rate was also lower than the GLC group. The inclusion of lean red meat in the diet on at least five occasions per week did not impair weight loss. Mean weight gain following 12 weeks weight maintenance was þ1.1 (s.d. 1.8) kg, P<0.0001. No differences were found between groups. <b>CONCLUSIONS:</b> This study has shown that the individualized 2512 kJ (600 kcal) ED approach was no more effective in terms of weight loss than the 6279 kJ (1500 kcal) GLC approach. However the ED approach might be considered preferable as compliance was better with this less demanding prescription. In terms of weight loss the elimination of red meat from the diet is unnecessary. The weight maintenance intervention was designed as a low-input approach, however weight regain was significant and weight maintenance strategies require further development

Periodicities in sunspot activity during solar cycle 23

The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Several significant midrange periodicities ($\sim$175, 133, 113, 104, 84, 63 days) are detected in sunspot activity. Most of the periodicities in sunspot numbers generally agree with those of sunspot areas during the solar cycle 23. The study reveals that the periodic variations in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun show a kind of asymmetrical behavior. Periodicities of $\sim$175 days and $\sim$133 days are highly significant in the sunspot data of northern hemisphere showing consistency with the findings of Lean (1990) during solar cycles 12-21. On the other hand, southern hemisphere shows a strong periodicity of about 85 days in terms of sunspot activity. The analysis of solar flare index data of the same time interval does not show any significant peak. The different periodic behavior of sunspot and flare activity can be understood in the light of hypothesis proposed by Ballester et al. (2002), which suggests that during cycle 23, the periodic emergence of magnetic flux partly takes place away from developed sunspot groups and hence may not necessarily increase the magnetic complexity of sunspot groups that leads to the generation of flares.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Different associations between body composition and alcohol when assessed by exposure frequency or by quantitative estimates of consumption

Background: Alcohol intake is widely assumed to contribute to excess body fatness, especially among young men; however, the evidence is inconsistent. We have addressed this research question by investigating associations between reported alcohol consumption and body composition from large representative national surveys in a high alcohol‐consuming country with a high obesity prevalence. Methods: The present study comprised a secondary analysis of combined cross‐sectional nationally representative Scottish Health Surveys (1995–2010). Reported alcohol‐drinking frequency was divided into five groups: from ‘nonfrequent drinking’ (reference) to daily/‘almost every day’ among 35 837 representative adults [mean (SD) age: 42.7 (12.7) years (range 18–64 years)]. Quantitative alcohol consumption was categorised into seven groups: from ‘1–7 to ≥50 10 g units per week’. Regression models against measured body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were adjusted for age, physical activity, income, smoking, deprivation category and economic status. Results: Among alcohol‐consuming men, heavier drinking (21–28 units per week) was associated with a higher BMI by +1.4 kg m–2 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.38–1.43] and higher WC by +3.4 cm (95% CI = 3.2–3.6) than drinking 1–7 units per week. However, those who reported daily drinking frequency were associated with a lower BMI by −2.45 kg m–2 (95% CI = −2.4 to −2.5) and lower WC by −3.7 cm (95% CI = −3.3 to −4.0) than those who reported less‐frequent drinking. Similar associations were found for women. Most of these associations were restricted to subjects aged >30 years. Unexplained variances in BMI and WC are large. Conclusions: Quantitative alcohol consumption and frequency of consumption were positively and inversely associated, respectively, with both BMI and WC among alcohol‐consuming adults. Surveys are needed that evaluate both the quantity and frequency of consumption. The lowest BMI and WC were associated with a ‘Mediterranean’ drinking style (i.e. relatively little, but more frequently)

Spacecraft instrument calibration and stability

The following topics are covered: instrument degradation; the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Experiment; the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS); the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 1 (SAGE-1) and SAGE-2 instruments; the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) UV ozone and near infrared airglow instruments; and the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS)

Does the representation of flow structure and turbulence at a cold front converge on multi-scale observations with model resolution?

In situ aircraft observations are used to interrogate the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to represent flow structure and turbulence at a narrow cold front. Simulations are performed at a range of nested resolutions with grid spacings of 12 km down to 100 m and the convergence with resolution is investigated. The observations include the novel feature of a low-altitude circuit around the front that is closed in the frame of reference of the front, thus allowing the direct evaluation of area-average vorticity and divergence values from circuit integrals. As such, the observational strategy enables a comparison of flow structures over a broad range of spatial scales, from the size of the circuit itself ($\approx$100 km) to small-scale turbulent fluctuations ($\approx$10 m). It is found that many aspects of the resolved flow converge successfully towards the observations with resolution if sampling uncertainty is accounted for, including the area-average vorticity and divergence measures and the narrowest observed cross-frontal width. In addition, there is a gradual handover from parametrized to resolved turbulent fluxes of moisture and momentum as motions in the convective boundary layer behind the front become partially-resolved in the highest resolution simulations. In contrast, the parametrized turbulent fluxes associated with subgrid-scale shear-driven turbulence ahead of the front do not converge on the observations. The structure of frontal rainbands associated with a shear instability along the front also does not converge with resolution, indicating that the mechanism of the frontal instability may not be well represented in the simulations

A one way coupled thermo-mechanical model to determine residual stresses and deformations in butt welding of two ASTM A36 steel plates

To simulate the gas metal arc welding (GMAW) process in two ASTM A36 steel plates a finite element numerical model was developed, to obtain the corresponding residual stresses and deformations. The welding process was simulated as a one way coupled thermo-structural problem, considering that the structural field has very little influence in the thermal field, which is widely accepted in the specialized literature. To solve the thermal field, a nonlinear transient problem was created using finite second order elements that have temperature as the only degree of freedom in their nodes. The thermal properties of material were defined as a function of temperature and a combined convection-radiation coefficient was used as boundary condition. The double ellipsoidal model presented by Goldak was used to simulate the heat source and its dimensions were determined from the expressions developed by Christensen. To solve the structural field another nonlinear transient problem was created, considering the same mesh and the same time step of the thermal problem, using finite second order elements that have three displacements as degrees of freedom in their nodes. The mechanical properties of material were defined as a function of temperature, a thermo-elasto-plastic material model was used and the necessary displacement constraints were applied as boundary conditions. The temperature distribution obtained by solving the thermal field at each time step was transferred as a load to the structural problem. In both problems the “birth and death” technique was used to simulate the material deposition, which is implemented in the ANSYS software used in the present study. The activation of “dead” elements of the weld bead in the thermal analysis was performed simultaneously with the passage of the heat source, while in the structural analysis “dead” elements were activated as a function of their temperature. Different activation temperatures of “dead” elements were tested in the structural analysis, obtaining the best results when this temperature takes a value of 80% of material solidification temperature. The model used in this study was validated experimentally, taking as reference the residual displacements in several points of the welded plates. It was verified that there is a good correspondence between numerical and experimental results, with an error of less than 10%

Continuous data assimilation for global numerical weather prediction

A new configuration of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) incremental 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) system is introduced which builds upon the quasi-continuous DA concept proposed in the mid-1990s. Rather than working with a fixed set of observations, the new 4D-Var configuration exploits the near-continuous stream of incoming observations by introducing recently arrived observations at each outer loop iteration of the assimilation. This allows the analysis to benefit from more recent observations. Additionally, by decoupling the start time of the DA calculations from the observational data cut-off time, real-time forecasting applications can benefit from more expensive analysis configurations that previously could not have been considered. In this work we present results of a systematic comparison of the performance of a Continuous DA system against that of two more traditional baseline 4D-Var configurations. We show that the quality of the analysis produced by the new, more continuous configuration is comparable to that of a conventional baseline that has access to all of the observations in each of the outer loops, which is a configuration not feasible in real-time operational numerical weather prediction. For real-time forecasting applications, the Continuous DA framework allows configurations which clearly outperform the best available affordable non-continuous configuration. Continuous DA became operational at ECMWF in June 2019 and led to significant 2 to 3% reductions in medium-range forecast root mean square errors, which is roughly equivalent to 2-3 hr of additional predictive skill.Peer reviewe