Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

This is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. Data availability: Counts of probable dengue virus cases and hospitalizations for individual states and the city of Salvador, Bahia, were obtained from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN, https://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/doencas-e-agravos-de-notificacao-2001-a-2006-sinan and https://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/doencas-e-agravos-de-notificacao-de-2007-em-diante-sinan) and Unified Health System (SUS) through the DATASUS (https://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/morbidade-hospitalar-do-sus-sih-sus). Population size estimates were obtained from DATASUS (https://datasus.saude.gov.br/populacao-residente). Weekly DENV and ZIKV notified cases (clinically suspected and confirmed) in the Bahian city of Feira de Santana were obtained directly from the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde of the city (https://www.feiradesantana.ba.gov.br/servicos.asp?id=14&link=sms/vigilancia_saude/vigilancia_epidemiologica.asp). All relevant data used in Figs. 1–3 and Supplementary Fig. 1-8,14,16 are available in the GitHub repository https://github.com/francescopinotti92/dengue_and_zika_brazil.n 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.UK Research and InnovationHuman Frontiers Science ProgrammePON ‘Ricerca e Innovazione’ 2014-202

ORIGIN AND PREVALENCE OF HUMAN T-LYMPHOTROPIC VIRUS TYPE 1 (HTLV-1) AND TYPE 2 (HTLV-2) AMONG INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS IN THE AMERICAS

Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is found in indigenous peoples of the Pacific Islands and the Americas, whereas type 2 (HTLV-2) is widely distributed among the indigenous peoples of the Americas, where it appears to be more prevalent than HTLV-1, and in some tribes of Central Africa. HTLV-2 is considered ancestral in the Americas and is transmitted to the general population and injection drug users from the indigenous population. In the Americas, HTLV-1 has more than one origin, being brought by immigrants in the Paleolithic period through the Bering Strait, through slave trade during the colonial period, and through Japanese immigration from the early 20th century, whereas HTLV-2 was only brought by immigrants through the Bering Strait. The endemicity of HTLV-2 among the indigenous people of Brazil makes the Brazilian Amazon the largest endemic area in the world for its occurrence. A review of HTLV-1 in all Brazilian tribes supports the African origin of HTLV-1 in Brazil. The risk of hyperendemicity in these epidemiologically closed populations and transmission to other populations reinforces the importance of public health interventions for HTLV control, including the recognition of the infection among reportable diseases and events

Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19

Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.</p

The low evolutionary rate of human T-cell lymphotropic virus type-1 confirmed by analysis of vertical transmission chains

The evolutionary rate of the human T-cell lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) is considered to be very low, in strong contrast to the related human retrovirus HIV. However, current estimates of the HTLV-1 rate rely on the anthropological calibration of phylogenies using assumed dates of human migration events. To obtain an independent rate estimate, we analyzed two variable regions of the HTLV-1 genome (LTR and env) from eight infected families. Remarkable genetic stability was observed, as only two mutations in LTR (756 bp) and three mutations in env (522 bp) occurred within the 16 vertical transmission chains, including one ambiguous position in each region. The evolutionary rate in HTLV-1 was then calculated using a maximum-likelihood approach that used the highest and lowest possible times of HTLV-1 shared ancestry, given the known transmission histories. The rates for the LTR and env regions were 9.58 x 10(-8)-1.25 x 10(-5) and 7.84 x 10(-7)-2.33 x 10(-5) nucleotide substitutions per site per year, respectively. A more precise estimate was obtained for the combined LTR-env data set, which was 7.06 x 10(-7)-1.38 x 10(-5) substitutions per site per year. We also note an interesting correlation between the occurrence of mutations in HTLV-1 and the age of the individual infected

Epidemiology and evolution of Zika virus in Minas Gerais, Southeast Brazil.

Autochthonous Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in Brazil was first identified in April 2015 in Brazil, with the first ZIKV-associated microcephaly cases detected in October 2015. Despite efforts on understanding ZIKV transmission in Brazil, little is known about the virus epidemiology and genetic diversity in Minas Gerais (MG), the second most populous state in the country. We report molecular and genomic findings from the main public health laboratory in MG. Until January 2020, 26,817 ZIKV suspected infections and 86 congenital syndrome cases were reported in MG state. We tested 8552 ZIKV and microcephaly suspected cases. Ten genomes were generated on-site directly from clinical samples. A total of 1723 confirmed cases were detected in Minas Gerais, with two main epidemic waves; the first and larger epidemic wave peaked in March 2016, with the second smaller wave that peaked in March 2017. Dated molecular clock analysis revealed that multiple introductions occurred in Minas Gerais between 2014 and 2015, suggesting that the virus was circulating unnoticed for at least 16&#x202F;months before the first confirmed laboratory case that we retrospectively identified in December 2015. Our findings highlight the importance of continued genomic surveillance strategies combined with traditional epidemiology to assist public health laboratories in monitoring and understanding the diversity of circulating arboviruses, which might help attenuate the public health impact of infectious diseases

SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment

Return of the founder Chikungunya virus to its place of introduction into Brazil is revealed by genomic characterization of exanthematic disease cases

Between June 2017 and August 2018, several municipalities located in Bahia state (Brazil) reported a large increase in the number of patients presenting with febrile illness similar to that of arboviral infections. Using a combination of portable whole genome sequencing, molecular clock and epidemiological analyses, we revealed the return of the CHIKV-ECSA genotype into Bahia. Our results show local persistence of lineages in some municipalities and the re-introduction of new epidemiological strains from different Brazilian regions, highlighting a complex dynamic of transmission between epidemic seasons and sampled locations. Estimated climate-driven transmission potential of CHIKV remained at similar levels throughout the years, such that large reductions in the total number of confirmed cases suggests a slow, but gradual accumulation of herd-immunity over the 4 years of the epidemic in Bahia after its introduction in 2014. Bahia remains a reservoir of the genetic diversity of CHIKV in the Americas, and genomic surveillance strategies are essential to assist in monitoring and understanding arboviral transmission and persistence both locally and over large distances