Representing future urban and regional scenarios for flood hazard mitigation

In this paper we analyse urban and regional growth trends by using dynamic spatial models. The objective of this approach is twofold: on the one hand to monitor sustainable development trends and on the other hand to assess flood risk in urban areas. We propose the use of future urban scenarios in order to forecast the effects of urban and regional planning policies. In the last 20 years the extent of built-up areas in Europe has increased by 20%, exceeding clearly the 6% rate of population growth over the same period. This trend contributes to unsustainable development patterns, and moreover, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing in large regions of Europe. The paper is organised in two parts. In the first part we analyse a study case in Friuli-Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region in northern Italy. We analyse several spatial indicators in the form of maps describing population growth and patterns, and the historical growth of built-up areas. Then we show the results of a dynamic spatial model for simulating land use scenarios. The model is based on a spatial dynamics bottom-up approach, and can be defined as a cellular automata (CA)-based model. Future urban scenarios are produced by taking into account several factors –e.g. land use development, population growth or spatial planning policies–. Urban simulations offer a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current spatial planning policies. Inappropriate regional and urban planning can exacerbate the negative effects of extreme hydrological processes. Good land management and planning practices, including appropriate land use and development control in flood-prone areas, represent suitable non-structural solutions to minimise flood damages. The overall effects of these measures in terms of both sustainable development and flood defence can be quantified with the proposed modelling approach. In the second part of the paper we show some preliminary results of a pilot study case. Two future simulations produced by the model were used for a flood risk assessment in Pordenone (one of the four provinces of FVG). In the last 100 years Pordenone has suffered several floods. The two major events were the heavy floods of 1966 (100-year flood event; >500 mm of rain in 36 hours) and 2002 (up to 580 mm of rain in 36 hours). The disastrous consequences of those heavy floods have shown how vulnerable this area is. The flood risk analysis is based on a hydrological hazard map for the Livenza River catchment area, provided by the regional Water Authority. That map covers most of flood hazard areas of Pordenone province. Early results of this study show that the main driving force of natural disasters damage is not only increasing flood hazard, but increasing vulnerability, mainly due to urbanisation in flood prone areas.

Towards urban un-sustainability in Europe? An indicator-based analysis

In this article we analyse the relationship between urban land use development and population density in fifteen European urban areas. In the last 20 years the extent of built-up areas in Europe has increased by 20%, exceeding clearly the 6% rate of population growth over the same period. This is one of the consequences of unsustainable development patterns in large areas of Europe. In order to illustrate such unsustainable process we show five sets of indicators on built-up areas, residential land use, land taken by urban expansion, population density and how the population takes up the built-up space.The results show that analysing urban land use development necessitates the use of complementary indicators. The built-up areas have grown considerably in a sample of 15 European cities. The most rapid growth dates back to 1950s and 1960s. The annual growth pace has slowed down in the 1990s to 0.75 %. In half of the studied cities over 90% of all new housing areas built after the mid-1950s are discontinuous urban developments. This trend is increasing the use of private car and fragmentation of natural areas among others negative effects. When putting these findings into the context of stable or decreasing urban population, it is clear that the structure of most of European cities has become less compact, which demonstrates a de-centralisation process of urban land uses. We close by discussing on one hand the common urban land use and population density trends and on the other hand differences between the studied cities. Although most studied urban areas have experienced dispersed growth, as a result of the analysis we divide the cities in three groups: - compact cities,- cities with looser structures and lower densities,- and cities in the midway between the extremes.

An indicator framework for assessing ecosystem services in support of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020

Maes, Joachim... et al.-- 10 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, supplementary material https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.10.023In the EU, the mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services, abbreviated to MAES, is seen as a key action for the advancement of biodiversity objectives, and also to inform the development and implementation of related policies on water, climate, agriculture, forest, marine and regional planning. In this study, we present the development of an analytical framework which ensures that consistent approaches are used throughout the EU. It is framed by a broad set of key policy questions and structured around a conceptual framework that links human societies and their well-being with the environment. Next, this framework is tested through four thematic pilot studies, including stakeholders and experts working at different scales and governance levels, which contributed indicators to assess the state of ecosystem services. Indicators were scored according to different criteria and assorted per ecosystem type and ecosystem services using the common international classification of ecosystem services (CICES) as typology. We concluded that there is potential to develop a first EU wide ecosystem assessment on the basis of existing data if they are combined in a creative way. However, substantial data gaps remain to be filled before a fully integrated and complete ecosystem assessment can be carried outBalint Czúcz was supported by the Bolyai Grant of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences under grant number BO/00138/12/8Peer Reviewe

Exploring the feasibility of applying the Land Use Modelling Platform outside the EU. Preliminary estimates of the global demand for urban land

This technical note aims to present the progresses done towards the evaluation of the possible application of the Land Use Modelling Platform in a global context or anyhow outside the geographical borders of Europe. The definition and computation of demands for land-uses are the first element to be appraised since are essential inputs for the modelling platform. The note describes the methodology adopted to compute the demand for urban land (this includes land uses related to residences, leisure facilities and small commercial and industrial activities) in 10 region worldwide according to a set of different scenarios of demographic exspansion.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Towards an Integrated Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Sea-Level Rise in the Baltic Sea: An Example for the City of Pärnu (Estonia)

In this report we address the topic of integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the Baltic Sea area and estimation of their possible negative effects on the city of Pärnu (Estonia). Pärnu is a health resort and port located on the coast of Pärnu Bay. The considerably low elevation (about 10 metres above sea-level) makes Pärnu city extremely vulnerable to flood events. Several issues are covered in order to give a complete picture about the driving forces and processes involved. The outputs of regional climate models and sea level rise scenarios used in order to estimate magnitude and extend of climate change effects in the future. The application of cellular automata (CA) -based spatial modeling tool –MOLAND- made use to estimate what structural impact climate change might have in regards to local development alternatives. It may be feasible for studies of local adaptation in order to estimate the feedback of mitigation policies over planning horizon of several decades.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Estimating Demand for Industrial and Commercial Land Use Given Economic Forecasts

Current developments in the field of land use modelling point towards greater level of spatial and thematic resolution and the possibility to model large geographical extents. Improvements are taking place as computational capabilities increase and socioeconomic and environmental data are produced with sufficient detail. Integrated approaches to land use modelling rely on the development of interfaces with specialized models from fields like economy, hydrology, and agriculture. Impact assessment of scenarios/policies at various geographical scales can particularly benefit from these advances. A comprehensive land use modelling framework includes necessarily both the estimation of the quantity and the spatial allocation of land uses within a given timeframe. In this paper, we seek to establish straightforward methods to estimate demand for industrial and commercial land uses that can be used in the context of land use modelling, in particular for applications at continental scale, where the unavailability of data is often a major constraint. We propose a set of approaches based on ‘land use intensity’ measures indicating the amount of economic output per existing areal unit of land use. A base model was designed to estimate land demand based on regional-specific land use intensities; in addition, variants accounting for sectorial differences in land use intensity were introduced.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Population estimation for the Urban Atlas Polygons

The aim of this technical note is to describe the methodology and source data used to estimate the residential population in each built-up polygon of the Urban Atlas land use/cover dataset. The final outcome of the procedure is a new attribute to the Urban Atlas polygons that will broaden the range of uses of the Urban Atlas dataset, contributing to new analysis and assessments in different thematic fields, e.g. urban quality of life (accessibility to recreational areas; exposure to sources of noise); urban morphology (population density gradients).JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Methods for Regional Integrated Assessment: High resolution gridded emission distribution in the LUISA Platform

This report illustrates the progresses made towards the inclusion of air quality related issues in the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) platform. It focuses on the description of the methodology to derive high-resolution gridded-emission spatially geo-referenced layers from outputs and datasets integrated in LUISA. In the framework of the integration of the Regional Integrated Assessment Tool (RIAT model) and the Land Use Modelling Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) platform, we implemented the downscaling of atmospheric emission data from national level to very high spatial resolution (100m). The GAINS model (IIASA) provides the input emission data for different scenarios, up to year 2030, which are disaggregated based on 34 different surrogates. Each surrogate is calculated by means of the integration of several proxies derived by statistical datasets, ancillary models and GIS layers in the framework of the LUISA platform. The preliminary results for NOx, PM10 and NH3 (year 2010) are presented in this report together with their first assessment, based on existing emission maps at 7 and 10 Km resolution. Future steps for further refinements are also discussed.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

EU–Africa Strategic Corridors and critical raw materials: two-way approach to regional development and security of supply

The paper has two interconnected bodies. The first one deals with mineral resource indicators and their role in drawing 11 EU-Africa Strategic Corridors, in a broader context of Africa-EU partnership. The second strives to understand how such Strategic Corridors are also mineral corridors, i.e. development promotors that use mineral resources as a catalyser to create and strengthen value chains and territorial organisation, boosting economic and societal development at regional scale. The results can help understand how Strategic Corridors can improve access to the present and future mines, mitigating the risk of supply disruptions of critical raw materials for the EU

Estudio de la Tecnología Streaming en redes dual stack IPV4/IPV6 para la transmisión multimedia

This document describes the procedures used for the simulation of the transmission streaming on a dual stack network for study and demonstrate both its feasibility as an IPv4 network and an IPv6 network and taking into account that the routing ipv4 and has ended and therefore opt for a transition to IPv6. which should ensure compatibility of different network applications.TesisCampus Lima Centr