Essays in macroeconomics : confidence, business cycles, and fertility

Defence date: 5 June 2018Examining Board: Prof. Evi Pappa, EUI, Supervisor ; Prof. Juan Dolado, EUI ; Prof. Gianluca Benigno, LSE and IMF ; Prof. Vanghelis Vassilatos, Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB)The thesis is awarded Vilfredo Pareto Prize for the Best Thesis in Economics 2018This thesis comprises essays in macroeconomics across two main themes. The first studies the role of confidence shocks as a source of business cycle fluctuations using an instrumental variable approach. Exogenous drops in consumer confidence are identified by using school and mass shootings in the U.S. as natural experiments. Such autonomous drops in confidence are, in turn, found to sizably and persistently depress consumption and economic activity, raise prices, and reduce nominal interest rates. These empirical findings are shown to be consistent with a model in which negative confidence shocks reduce expectations of future technology, prompting consumers to save for wealth and precautionary motives, firms to reduce employment and investment while raising prices, and monetary authorities to reduce short-term nominal interest rates. These findings provide empirical evidence of a causal role of confidence in producing macroeconomic fluctuations. The second theme studies household fertility decisions in relation to business cycles and underlying labor market institutions. Fertility in the U.S. is shown to be procyclical with respect to current economic conditions (negative unemployment shocks) and rise in response to consumer expectation and stock price news shocks - representing expected wealth effects anticipated by households. However, fertility is shown to be countercyclical with respect to highly transitory TFP shocks – such that couples choose to have children during recessions when the opportunity cost (forgone wages) is lower, i.e. the income effect outweighs the substitution effect. Moreover, labor market institutions not directly targeting fertility are found to affect average fertility rates through their impact on business cycles. Fertility rates are negatively associated with wage rigidities (which raise employment volatility) and positively associated with employment rigidities (which instead raise wage volatility).--1. Confidence and Local Activity: An IV Approach --2. Does Economic Security Really Impact on Gun Violence at U.S. Schools? --3. Sentimental Business Cycles --4. Do Stock Market Booms Anticipate Baby Booms? --5. Do Labor Market Institutions Matter for Fertility?Chapter 5 of the thesis, co-authored with CAMILLI, Andrea, was previously published as EUI ECO WP 2017/07. Chapter 2 of the thesis 'Does economic security really impact on gun violence at U.S. schools?' by PAPPA, Evi, LAGERBORG, Andresa and RAVN, Morten O. draws upon the article 'Does economic insecurity really impact on gun violence at US schools?' published in Nature human behaviour, 2018

Sentimental Business Cycles

We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in the US. We identify autonomous changes in survey evidence on consumer confidence using fatalities in mass shootings as an instrument. We find the instrument to be significant for an aggregate index of consumer expectations and also back up the identification scheme with micro evidence that exploits the geographical variation in mass shootings. Sentiment shocks have real macroeconomic effects. A negative sentiment shock is recessionary: It sets off a persistent decline in consumer confidence and induces a contraction in industrial production, private sector consumption and in the labour market, while having less evident nominal effects. Finally, sentiment shocks explain a non-negligible part of the cyclical fluctuations in consumer confidence and real macroeconomic aggregates

Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?

Available online 4 November 2014. Using panel data of 19 OECD countries observed over 40 years and data on specific labor market reform episodes we conclude that labor market institutions matter for business cycle fluctuations. Spearman partial rank correlations reveal that more flexible institutions are associated with lower business cycle volatility. Turning to the analysis of reform episodes, wage bargaining reforms increase the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity and the volatility of unemployment. Employment protection reforms increase the volatility of employment and decrease the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity. Reforms reducing replacement rates make labor productivity more procyclical

Sentimental Business Cycles

We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in the US. We identify autonomous changes in survey evidence on consumer confidence using fatalities in mass shootings as an instrument. We find the instrument to be significant for an aggregate index of consumer expectations and also back up the identification scheme with micro evidence that exploits the geographical variation in mass shootings. Sentiment shocks have real macroeconomic effects. A negative sentiment shock is recessionary: It sets off a persistent decline in consumer confidence and induces a contraction in industrial production, private sector consumption and in the labour market, while having less evident nominal effects. Finally, sentiment shocks explain a non-negligible part of the cyclical fluctuations in consumer confidence and real macroeconomic aggregates.We acknowledge financial support from ERC Project BUCCAC - DLV 8845598, and the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science, project PGC2018-094321-B-I00

Do labor market institutions matter for fertility?

Using annual data for 20 OECD countries over the period 1961-2014, we study whether labor market institutions (LMIs) not targeted to maternity impact the total fertility rate (TFR). We distinguish between employment rigidities (ER) and real wage rigidities (RWR), since the former reduces and the latter amplifies the response of the business cycle to shocks. Panel regressions and principal component analysis reveal that ER, such as employment protection and union strength, increase TFR. On the other hand, RWR, proxied by the centralization of wage bargaining and unemployment benefits, reduce TFR. We also find evidence that unemployment volatility reduces fertility whereas wage volatility raises fertility. Thus, to the extent that labor market institutions affect unemployment and wage volatility, they may also affect fertility. We complement our analysis with a DSGE model that incorporates households' fertility decision as well as unemployment and wage rigidities. We find that downward wage rigidities amplify real contractions in response to negative demand shocks and lead to large drops in employment and fertility

Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?

Using panel data of 19 OECD countries observed over 40 years and data on specific labor market reform episodes we conclude that labor market institutions matter for business cycle fluctuations. Spearman partial rank correlations reveal that more flexible institutions are associated with lower business cycle volatility. Turning to the analysis of reform episodes, wage bargaining reforms increase the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity and the volatility of unemployment. Employment protection reforms increase the volatility of employment and decrease the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity. Reforms reducing replacement rates make labor productivity more procyclical

Does economic insecurity really impact on gun violence at US schools?

Published: 07 May 201

Can Sustainable Poverty Reduction be Achieved with Little or no Economic Growth? The Case of Jamaica

After little change in poverty between 1997 and 2002, Jamaica�s poverty headcount halved between 2003 and 2007 despite slow GDP growth. This paper analyzes the factors contributing to the observed reduction in poverty using household and labor force surveys. It sets out by providing a sectoral, demographic, and spatial picture of the evolution of poverty and finds that poverty reduction has been broad based, benefitting both rural and urban areas. Nearly three quarters of the poverty reduction is attributed to growth in average household consumption, which outpaced GDP growth, and one quarter to narrowing inequality. Around half of the reduction of inequality is attributed to falling returns to education and a narrowing of sectoral wage differences