Collections policy comparison in LGD modelling

This paper discusses the similarities and the differences in the collection process between in house and 3rd Party collection. The objective is to show that although the same type of modelling approach to estimating Loss Given Default (LGD) can be used in both cases the details will be significantly different. In particular the form of the LGD distribution suggests one needs to split the distribution in different easy in the two cases as well as using different variables. The comparisons are made use two data sets of the collections outcomes from two sets of unsecured consumer defaulters<br/

Equivariant volumes of non-compact quotients and instanton counting

Motivated by Nekrasov's instanton counting, we discuss a method for calculating equivariant volumes of non-compact quotients in symplectic and hyper-K\"ahler geometry by means of the Jeffrey-Kirwan residue-formula of non-abelian localization. In order to overcome the non-compactness, we use varying symplectic cuts to reduce the problem to a compact setting, and study what happens in the limit that recovers the original problem. We implement this method for the ADHM construction of the moduli spaces of framed Yang-Mills instantons on $\R^{4}$ and rederive the formulas for the equivariant volumes obtained earlier by Nekrasov-Shadchin, expressing these volumes as iterated residues of a single rational function.Comment: 34 pages, 2 figures; minor typos corrected, to appear in Comm. Math. Phy

Psychometric Evaluation of the IBD-Specific Anxiety Scale: A Novel Measure of Disease-Related Anxiety for Adolescents With IBD

Anxiety related to pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a common comorbidity; yet, this construct is understudied because of lack of available valid measurement. Objective: The present study will report the preliminary validation of the 20-item IBD-Specific Anxiety Scale (IBD-SAS) in a large, geographically diverse sample of adolescents aged 12-18 years with IBD. Method: A total of 281 adolescents, ages 12-18 (M = 14.8, SD = 1.78; 51% male), completed the IBD-SAS along with measures of IBD-related quality of life, anxiety, depressive symptoms, and disease activity. Factor structure was assessed using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (EFA and CFA). Results: EFA (Sample 1; n = 141) yielded one-, two-, three- and four-factor models. The CFA (Sample 2; n = 140) demonstrated that a four-factor model was superior to three- and two-factor model for the amended scale. In total, the IBD-SAS showed excellent internal consistency (Cronbach's à = .95) and was most strongly associated with health-related quality of life. Moderate to strong associations were observed between IBD-SAS and general measures of anxiety and depressive symptoms, and IBD disease activity providing additional support that health-specific anxiety is a valid and distinct construct. Conclusions: Based on the results of this study, the IBD-SAS displayed adequate psychometric properties and can meaningfully contribute to the assessment of IBD-specific anxiety in adolescents diagnosed with IBD, thus filling an empirical and clinical need in this population

Impacts and effects of ocean warming on intertidal rocky habitats.

• Intertidal rocky habitats comprise over 50% of the shorelines of the world, supporting a diversity of marine life and providing extensive ecosystem services worth in the region of US$ 5-10 trillion per year. • They are valuable indicators of the impacts of climate change on the wider marine environment and ecosystems. • Changes in species distributions, abundance and phenology have already been observed around the world in response to recent rapid climate change. • Species-level responses will have considerable ramifications for the structure of communities and trophic interactions, leading to eventual changes in ecosystem functioning (e.g. less primary producing canopy-forming algae in the North-east Atlantic). • Whilst progress is made on the mitigation1 required to achieve goals of a lower-carbon world, much can be done to enhance resilience to climate change. Managing the multitude of other interactive impacts on the marine environment, over which society has greater potential control (e.g. overfishing, invasive non-native species, coastal development, and pollution), will enable adaptation1 in the short and medium term of the next 5-50 years

On the Classification of Diagonal Coset Modular Invariants

We relate in a novel way the modular matrices of GKO diagonal cosets without fixed points to those of WZNW tensor products. Using this we classify all modular invariant partition functions of $su(3)_k\oplus su(3)_1/su(3)_{k+1}$ for all positive integer level $k$, and $su(2)_k\oplus su(2)_\ell/su(2)_{k+\ell}$ for all $k$ and infinitely many $\ell$ (in fact, for each $k$ a positive density of $\ell$). Of all these classifications, only that for $su(2)_k\oplus su(2)_1/su(2)_{k+1}$ had been known. Our lists include many new invariants.Comment: 24 pp (plain tex

Edge overload breakdown in evolving networks

We investigate growing networks based on Barabasi and Albert's algorithm for generating scale-free networks, but with edges sensitive to overload breakdown. the load is defined through edge betweenness centrality. We focus on the situation where the average number of connections per vertex is, as the number of vertices, linearly increasing in time. After an initial stage of growth, the network undergoes avalanching breakdowns to a fragmented state from which it never recovers. This breakdown is much less violent if the growth is by random rather than preferential attachment (as defines the Barabasi and Albert model). We briefly discuss the case where the average number of connections per vertex is constant. In this case no breakdown avalanches occur. Implications to the growth of real-world communication networks are discussed.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev.

Chern-Simons States at Genus One

We present a rigorous analysis of the Schr\"{o}dinger picture quantization for the $SU(2)$ Chern-Simons theory on 3-manifold torus$\times$line, with insertions of Wilson lines. The quantum states, defined as gauge covariant holomorphic functionals of smooth $su(2)$-connections on the torus, are expressed by degree $2k$ theta-functions satisfying additional conditions. The conditions are obtained by splitting the space of semistable $su(2)$-connections into nine submanifolds and by analyzing the behavior of states at four codimension $1$ strata. We construct the Knizhnik-Zamolodchikov-Bernard connection allowing to compare the states for different complex structures of the torus and different positions of the Wilson lines. By letting two Wilson lines come together, we prove a recursion relation for the dimensions of the spaces of states which, together with the (unproven) absence of states for spins\s>{_1\over^2}level implies the Verlinde dimension formula.Comment: 33 pages, IHES/P

Nonlinear ion-acoustic (IA) waves driven in a cylindrically symmetric flow

By employing a self-similar, two-fluid MHD model in a cylindrical geometry, we study the features of nonlinear ion-acoustic (IA) waves which propagate in the direction of external magnetic field lines in space plasmas. Numerical calculations not only expose the well-known three shapes of nonlinear structures (sinusoidal, sawtooth, and spiky or bipolar) which are observed by numerous satellites and simulated by models in a Cartesian geometry, but also illustrate new results, such as, two reversely propagating nonlinear waves, density dips and humps, diverging and converging electric shocks, etc. A case study on Cluster satellite data is also introduced.Comment: accepted by AS

Is It Rational to Assume that Infants Imitate Rationally? A Theoretical Analysis and Critique

It has been suggested that preverbal infants evaluate the efficiency of others' actions (by applying a principle of rational action) and that they imitate others' actions rationally. The present contribution presents a conceptual analysis of the claim that preverbal infants imitate rationally. It shows that this ability rests on at least three assumptions: that infants are able to perceive others' action capabilities, that infants reason about and conceptually represent their own bodies, and that infants are able to think counterfactually. It is argued that none of these three abilities is in place during infancy. Furthermore, it is shown that the idea of a principle of rational action suffers from two fallacies. As a consequence, is it suggested that it is not rational to assume that infants imitate rationally. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Genetic Analyses in Small for Gestational Age Newborns

Context: Small for gestational age (SGA) can be a result of fetal growth restriction, associated with perinatal morbidity and mortality. Mechanisms that control prenatal growth are poorly understood. Objective: The aim of the present study was to gain more insight into prenatal growth failure and determine an effective diagnostic approach in SGA newborns. We hypothesized that one or more CNVs and disturbed methylation and sequence variants may be present in genes known to be associated with fetal growth. Design: A prospective cohort study of subjects with a low birthweight for gestational age. Setting: The study was conducted at an academic pediatric research institute. Patients: A total of 21 SGA newborns with a mean birthweight below the 1st centile and a control cohort of 24 appropriate for gestational age newborns were studied. Intervention: Array comparative genomic hybridization, genome-wide methylation studies and exome sequencing were performed. Main Outcome Measures The numbers of copy number variations, methylation disturbances and sequence variants. Results: The genetic analyses demonstrated three CNVs, one systematically disturbed methylation pattern and one sequence variant explaining the SGA. Additional methylation disturbances and sequence variants were present 20 patients. In 19 patients, multiple abnormalities were found. Conclusion: Our results confirm the influence of a large number of mechanisms explaining dysregulation of fetal growth. We conclude that copy number variations, methylation disturbances and sequence variants all contribute to prenatal growth failure. Such genetic workup can be an effective diagnostic approach in SGA newborns