A review of conditional rare event simulation for tail probabilities of heavy tailed random variables

Approximating the tail probability of a sum of heavy-tailed random variables is a difficult problem. In this review we exhibit the challenges of approximating such probabilities and concentrate on a rare event simulation methodology capable of delivering the most reliable results: Conditional Monte Carlo. To provide a better flavor of this topic we further specialize on two algorithms which were specifically designed for tackling this problem: the Asmussen-Binswanger estimator and the Asmussen-Kroese estimator. We extend the applicability of these estimators to the non-independent case and prove their efficiency

Semiparametric Cross Entropy for rare-event simulation

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an optimal importance sampling density within a wider semiparametric class of distributions. We show that this semiparametric version of the Cross Entropy method frequently yields efficient estimators. We illustrate the excellent practical performance of the method with numerical experiments and show that for the problems we consider it typically outperforms alternative schemes by orders of magnitude

Fitting phase--type scale mixtures to heavy--tailed data and distributions

We consider the fitting of heavy tailed data and distribution with a special attention to distributions with a non--standard shape in the "body" of the distribution. To this end we consider a dense class of heavy tailed distributions introduced recently, employing an EM algorithm for the the maximum likelihood estimates of its parameters. We present methods for fitting to observed data, histograms, censored data, as well as to theoretical distributions. Numerical examples are provided with simulated data and a benchmark reinsurance dataset. We empirically demonstrate that our model can provide excellent fits to heavy--tailed data/distributions with minimal assumption

Fitting phase--type scale mixtures to heavy--tailed data and distributions

We consider the fitting of heavy tailed data and distributions with a special attention to distributions with a non–standard shape in the “body” of the distribution. To this end we consider a dense class of heavy tailed distributions introduced in Bladt et al. (Scand. Actuar. J., 573–591 2015), employing an EM algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters. We present methods for fitting to observed data, histograms, censored data, as well as to theoretical distributions. Numerical examples are provided with simulated data and a benchmark reinsurance dataset. Empirical examples show that the methods will in most cases adequately fit both body and tail simultaneously

Approximation of Ruin Probabilities via Erlangized Scale Mixtures

In this paper, we extend an existing scheme for numerically calculating the probability of ruin of a classical Cram\'er--Lundberg reserve process having absolutely continuous but otherwise general claim size distributions. We employ a dense class of distributions that we denominate Erlangized scale mixtures (ESM) and correspond to nonnegative and absolutely continuous distributions which can be written as a Mellin--Stieltjes convolution $\Pi\star G$ of a nonnegative distribution $\Pi$ with an Erlang distribution $G$. A distinctive feature of such a class is that it contains heavy-tailed distributions. We suggest a simple methodology for constructing a sequence of distributions having the form $\Pi\star G$ to approximate the integrated tail distribution of the claim sizes. Then we adapt a recent result which delivers an explicit expression for the probability of ruin in the case that the claim size distribution is modelled as an Erlangized scale mixture. We provide simplified expressions for the approximation of the probability of ruin and construct explicit bounds for the error of approximation. We complement our results with a classical example where the claim sizes are heavy-tailed

A ruin model with a resampled environment

This paper considers a Cramér–Lundberg risk setting, where the components of the underlying model change over time. We allow the more general setting of the cumulative claim process being modeled as a spectrally positive Lévy process. We provide an intuitively appealing mechanism to create such parameter uncertainty: at Poisson epochs, we resample the model components from a finite number of d settings. It results in a setup that is particularly suited to describe situations in which the risk reserve dynamics are affected by external processes. We extend the classical Cramér–Lundberg approximation (asymptotically characterizing the all-time ruin probability in a light-tailed setting) to this more general setup. In addition, for the situation that the driving Lévy processes are sums of Brownian motions and compound Poisson processes, we find an explicit uniform bound on the ruin probability. In passing we propose an importance-sampling algorithm facilitating efficient estimation, and prove it has bounded relative error. In a series of numerical experiments we assess the accuracy of the asymptotics and bounds, and illustrate that neglecting the resampling can lead to substantial underestimation of the risk

Controlled mobility in stochastic and dynamic wireless networks

We consider the use of controlled mobility in wireless networks where messages arriving randomly in time and space are collected by mobile receivers (collectors). The collectors are responsible for receiving these messages via wireless transmission by dynamically adjusting their position in the network. Our goal is to utilize a combination of wireless transmission and controlled mobility to improve the throughput and delay performance in such networks. First, we consider a system with a single collector. We show that the necessary and sufficient stability condition for such a system is given by ρ<1 where ρ is the expected system load. We derive lower bounds for the expected message waiting time in the system and develop policies that are stable for all loads ρ<1 and have asymptotically optimal delay scaling. We show that the combination of mobility and wireless transmission results in a delay scaling of Θ([1 over 1−ρ]) with the system load ρ, in contrast to the Θ([1 over (1−ρ)[superscript 2]]) delay scaling in the corresponding system without wireless transmission, where the collector visits each message location. Next, we consider the system with multiple collectors. In the case where simultaneous transmissions to different collectors do not interfere with each other, we show that both the stability condition and the delay scaling extend from the single collector case. In the case where simultaneous transmissions to different collectors interfere with each other, we characterize the stability region of the system and show that a frame-based version of the well-known Max-Weight policy stabilizes the system asymptotically in the frame length.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant CNS-0915988)United States. Army Research Office. Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (Grant W911NF-08-1-0238

Efficient simulation of finite horizon problems in queueing and insurance risk

Let psi(u,t) be the probability that the workload in an initially empty M/G/1 queue exceeds u at time