The Anomalous Change in the QBO in 2015-2016

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of approximately 28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-16, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from approximately30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or cut-off the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this 2015-16 QBO disruption is unprecedented

A review of the Match technique as applied to AASE-2/EASOE and SOLVE/THESEO 2000

International audienceWe apply the NASA Goddard Trajectory Model to data from a series of ozonesondes to derive ozone loss rates in the lower stratosphere for the AASE-2/EASOE mission (January-March 1992) and for the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 mission (January-March 2000) in an approach similar to Match. Ozone loss rates are computed by comparing the ozone concentrations provided by ozonesondes launched at the beginning and end of the trajectories connecting the launches. We investigate the sensitivity of the Match results to the various parameters used to reject potential matches in the original Match technique. While these filters effectively eliminate from consideration 80% of the matched sonde pairs and >99% of matched observations in our study, we conclude that only a filter based on potential vorticity changes along the calculated back trajectories seems warranted. Our study also demonstrates that the ozone loss rates estimated in Match can vary by up to a factor of two depending upon the precise trajectory paths calculated for each trajectory. As a result, the statistical uncertainties published with previous Match results might need to be augmented by an additional systematic error. The sensitivity to the trajectory path is particularly pronounced in the month of January, for which the largest ozone loss rate discrepancies between photochemical models and Match are found. For most of the two study periods, our ozone loss rates agree with those previously published. Notable exceptions are found for January 1992 at 475K and late February/early March 2000 at 450K, both periods during which we generally find smaller loss rates than the previous Match studies. Integrated ozone loss rates estimated by Match in both of those years compare well with those found in numerous other studies and in a potential vorticity/potential temperature approach shown previously and in this paper. Finally, we suggest an alternate approach to Match using trajectory mapping. This approach uses information from all matched observations without filtering and uses a two-parameter fit to the data to produce robust ozone loss rate estimates. As compared to loss rates from our version of Match, the trajectory mapping approach produces generally smaller loss rates, frequently not statistically significantly different from zero, calling into question the efficacy of the Match approach

Systemic immunosuppression depletes peripheral blood regulatory B cells in patients with immune thrombocytopenia

Regulatory B (Breg) cells are potentially implicated in the pathogenesis of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). We analysed a prospective cohort of newly diagnosed steroid naïve ITP patients enrolled in the multicentre FLIGHT trial and found that the numbers of Bregs in their peripheral blood were similar to healthy controls. In contrast, Breg numbers were significantly reduced in ITP patients treated with systemic immunosuppression (glucocorticoids or mycophenolate mofetil). We also demonstrate that glucocorticoid treatment impairs Breg interleukin-10 production via an indirect T-cell-mediated mechanism

Forecasting carbon monoxide on a global scale for the ATom-1 aircraft mission: insights from airborne and satellite observations and modeling

The first phase of the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom-1) took place in July–August 2016 and included flights above the remote Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Sampling of atmospheric constituents during these flights is designed to provide new insights into the chemical reactivity and processes of the remote atmosphere and how these processes are affected by anthropogenic emissions. Model simulations provide a valuable tool for interpreting these measurements and understanding the origin of the observed trace gases and aerosols, so it is important to quantify model performance. Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasts and analyses show considerable skill in predicting and simulating the CO distribution and the timing of CO enhancements observed during the ATom-1 aircraft mission. We use GEOS-5's tagged tracers for CO to assess the contribution of different emission sources to the regions sampled by ATom-1 to elucidate the dominant anthropogenic influences on different parts of the remote atmosphere. We find a dominant contribution from non-biomass-burning sources along the ATom transects except over the tropical Atlantic, where African biomass burning makes a large contribution to the CO concentration. One of the goals of ATom is to provide a chemical climatology over the oceans, so it is important to consider whether August 2016 was representative of typical boreal summer conditions. Using satellite observations of 700&thinsp;hPa and column CO from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument, 215&thinsp;hPa&thinsp;CO from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and aerosol optical thickness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), we find that CO concentrations and aerosol optical thickness in August 2016 were within the observed range of the satellite observations but below the decadal median for many of the regions sampled. This suggests that the ATom-1 measurements may represent relatively clean but not exceptional conditions for lower-tropospheric CO.</p

Chance Encounter with a Stratospheric Kerosene Rocket Plume from Russia over California

During a routine ER-2 aircraft high-altitude test flight on April 18, 1997, an unusual aerosol cloud was detected at 20 km altitude near the California coast at about 370 degrees N latitude. Not visually observed by the ER-2 pilot, the cloud was characterized bv high concentration of soot and sulfate aerosol in a region over 100 km in horizontal extent indicating that the source of the plume was a large hydrocarbon fueled vehicle, most likely a launch vehicle powered only by rocket motors burning liquid oxygen and kerosene. Two Russian Soyuz rockets could conceivably have produced the plume. The first was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan on April 6th; the second was launched from Plesetsk, Russia on April 9. Air parcel trajectory calculations and long-lived tracer gas concentrations in the cloud indicate that the Baikonur rocket launch is the most probable source of the plume. The parcel trajectory calculations do not unambiguously trace the transport of the Soyuz plume from Asia to North America, illustrating serious flaws in the point-to-point trajectory calculations. This chance encounter represents the only measurement of the stratospheric effects of emissions from a rocket powered exclusively with hydrocarbon fuel

Development of an exercise intervention for the prevention of musculoskeletal shoulder problems after breast cancer treatment : the prevention of shoulder problems trial (UK PROSPER)

Background Musculoskeletal shoulder problems are common after breast cancer treatment. There is some evidence to suggest that early postoperative exercise is safe and may improve shoulder function. We describe the development and delivery of a complex intervention for evaluation within a randomised controlled trial (RCT), designed to target prevention of musculoskeletal shoulder problems after breast cancer surgery (The Prevention of Shoulder Problems Trial; PROSPER). Methods A pragmatic, multicentre RCT to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of best practice usual care versus a physiotherapy-led exercise and behavioural support intervention in women at high risk of shoulder problems after breast cancer treatment. PROSPER will recruit 350 women from approximately 15 UK centres, with follow-up at 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is shoulder function at 12 months; secondary outcomes include postoperative pain, health related quality of life, adverse events and healthcare resource use. A multi-phased approach was used to develop the PROSPER intervention which was underpinned by existing evidence and modified for implementation after input from clinical experts and women with breast cancer. The intervention was tested and refined further after qualitative interviews with patients newly diagnosed with breast cancer; a pilot RCT was then conducted at three UK clinical centres. Discussion The PROSPER intervention incorporates three main components: shoulder-specific exercises targeting range of movement and strength; general physical activity; and behavioural strategies to encourage adherence and support exercise behaviour. The final PROSPER intervention is fully manualised with clear, documented pathways for clinical assessment, exercise prescription, use of behavioural strategies, and with guidance for treatment of postoperative complications. This paper adheres to TIDieR and CERT recommendations for the transparent, comprehensive and explicit reporting of complex interventions. Trial registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 35358984