A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables - the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (MI), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP - and four cointegrating vectors. Model forecasts during the 1990's are compared to those made by the Federal Reserve and by private forecasters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

A study of dermatoglyphic variation in the human population of the north Pennine dales

Following an introductory chapter on the geographical framework and historical outline of the region, problems and the details of sampling and geographical analysis are contained in Chapters 2 and 3 respectively.Chapter 4 comprises a detailed review of dermal nomenclatures to supplement recommendations for methodological consistency given in Dyn 1977 4, 1-60. Necessary rulings have been amended, especially for the mainlines, to improve interrater accuracy in the scoring of attributes. Chapter 5 concerns details of data management specific to the survey. Chapter 6 deals with the genetics of digital and palmar dermatoglyphics. In Chapters 7 and 8 interrelationships between 152 dermal variables are investigated using bivariate and multivariate procedures. Other matters considered are measurement levels, frequency distributions and transformations, bilateral asymmetry and sex differences. Observations are made on the behaviour of different correlation coefficients. In Chapter 8, factoring of the unilateral digital and unilateral maximal digital ridge counts has been effected and preliminary results reported for the palmar variables. Multiple regression analysis has been carried out on the palmar ridge couits and on the palmar mainlines, in the latter case, in an attempt to demonstrate the possible redundancy of those attributes. Results of the spatial study are contained in Chapters 9 and 10. In Chapter 9, the multiplicity of ways for presenting univariate results has been disclosed, the importance of mapping procedures emphasized and a choropleth design described to locate class intervals for a limited number of regions. In Chapter 10 different distance coefficients, variable subsets and display procedures have been used to disclose population relationships and order in rectangular migration matrices. Multiple regression analyses have been effected between the interregional biological distances and various predictors, and a method described to reveal the effects of sampling error. Concluding matters are dealt with in Chapter 11

Short-term studies underestimate 30-generation changes in a butterfly metapopulation

Most studies of rare and endangered species are based on work carried out within one generation, or over one to a few generations of the study organism. We report the results of a study that spans 30 generations (years) of the entire natural range of a butterfly race that is endemic to 35 km2 of north Wales, UK. Short-term studies (surveys in single years and dynamics over 4 years) of this system led to the prediction that the regional distribution would be quite stable, and that colonization and extinction dynamics would be relatively unimportant. However, a longer-term study revealed unexpectedly high levels of population turnover (local extinction and colonization), affecting 18 out of the 20 patches that were occupied at any time during the period. Modelling the system (using the 'incidence function model' (IFM) for metapopulations) also showed higher levels of colonization and extinction with increasing duration of the study. The longer-term dynamics observed in this system can be compared, at a metapopulation level, with the increased levels of variation observed with increasing time that have been observed in single populations. Long-term changes may arise from local changes in the environment that make individual patches more or less suitable for the butterfly, or from unusual colonization or extinction events that take metapopulations into alternative states. One implication is that metapopulation and population viability analyses based on studies that cover only a few animal or plant generations may underestimate extinction threats

Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates

There is strong evidence of a stable “money demand” relationship for MZM and M2 through the 1990s. Though the M2 relationship breaks down somewhere around 1990, evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in M2 velocity that began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994. This paper’s results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds. This reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring, but it could also be explained by appropriately measured opportunity cost.Demand for money

Unangan past and present: the contrasts between observed and inferred histories

Journal ArticleAbstract Academic research focusing on the population and culture history of the Aleut (Unangan) people began in the late 19th century and continues to the present. The papers in this special issue of Human Biology summarize the latest results from archaeological, linguistic, genetic, and morphometric research approaches that bear on our current understanding of Unangan history and prehistory. Although these new analyses have provided a level of description and resolution previously unattainable, explanatory models and mechanisms for the patterned variation observed over time in the biological and cultural record of the Aleutian region remains elusive. Bringing the diverse data sets into concordance to represent an integrated synthesis of Aleut population and culture history and of Unangan origins and their relationships with other groups in the region remains a goal for future investigators

Determinants of Role Structure in Family Financial Management

© JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCHVariables determining the role of husband and wife in family financial management are explored based on in-home, personal interviews. Financial tasks reflecting implementation activities and two groupings of decision activities were related to component-score variables through discriminant function analysis. Sex-role attitude and educational level were most important in determining the role structure of implementation tasks. Locus of control, wife's working status and reasons for work, and a measure of family life cycle were each significant in determining role structure for a grouping of decision tasks

Tracking system study

A digital computer program was generated which mathematically describes an optimal estimator-controller technique as applied to the control of antenna tracking systems used by NASA. Simulation studies utilizing this program were conducted using the IBM 360/91 computer. The basic ideas of applying optimal estimator-controller techniques to antenna tracking systems are discussed. A survey of existing tracking methods is given along with shortcomings and inherent errors. It is explained how these errors can be considerably reduced if optimal estimation and control are used. The modified programs generated in this project are described and the simulation results are summarized. The new algorithms for direct synthesis and stabilization of the systems including nonlinearities, are presented

Building Health Equity One Institution at a Time: The Research Infrastructure in Minority Institutions Project

Developing a well-trained workforce interested in, and prepared for, conducting health equity research is an important national priority. Scientists from Minority-Serving Institutions (MSIs) bring unique perspectives and experiences with racial, ethnic and social inequities in health and health status but often lack access to training and mentoring opportunities, which is crucial for increasing the diverse pool of investigators who are adequately prepared to conduct health disparities research and to compete for National Institutes of Health research funding. The focus of the California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) Research Infrastructure in Minority Institutions (RIMI) Project was to: (a) enhance CSULB’s infrastructure and research capacity, (b) conduct applied community health research on health conditions disproportionately affecting disadvantaged populations, and (c) support faculty to embark on careers in reducing health disparities. Faculty received training, mentorship, and release time support to participate in research-related activities. Select faculty also received funding to conduct a two-year health disparities research project. Within a relatively short period of time, the RIMI Project made important strides toward strengthening the research infrastructure at CSULB by enhancing faculty capacity, improving research utilization to address health disparities, and strengthening campus and community collaborations. MSIs are encouraged to apply for opportunities to build their institution’s research capacity. The lessons learned from this project may be used as a guide for other teaching institutions that have the goal to develop minority faculty researchers

The hard X-ray burst spectrometer event listing 1980, 1981 and 1982

A comprehensive reference for the hard X-ray bursts detected with the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission for the time of launch on February 14, 1980 to March 1983 is provided. Over 6300 X-ray events were detected in the energy range from 30 to approx 500 keV with the vast majority being solar flares. The listing includes the start time, peak time, duration and peak rate of each event