Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy

BACKGROUND: Epidemic models are being extensively used to understand the main pathways of spread of infectious diseases, and thus to assess control methods. Schools are well known to represent hot spots for epidemic spread; hence, understanding typical patterns of infection transmission within schools is crucial for designing adequate control strategies. The attention that was given to the 2009 A/H1N1pdm09 flu pandemic has made it possible to collect detailed data on the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms in two primary schools of Trento, Italy. RESULTS: The data collected in the two schools were used to calibrate a discrete-time SIR model, which was designed to estimate the probabilities of influenza transmission within the classes, grades and schools using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We found that the virus was mainly transmitted within class, with lower levels of transmission between students in the same grade and even lower, though not significantly so, among different grades within the schools. We estimated median values of R 0 from the epidemic curves in the two schools of 1.16 and 1.40; on the other hand, we estimated the average number of students infected by the first school case to be 0.85 and 1.09 in the two schools. CONCLUSIONS: The discrepancy between the values of R 0 estimated from the epidemic curve or from the within-school transmission probabilities suggests that household and community transmission played an important role in sustaining the school epidemics. The high probability of infection between students in the same class confirms that targeting within-class transmission is key to controlling the spread of influenza in school settings and, as a consequence, in the general population

DEFENDING THE CORE? AN ANALYSIS OF TRADE UNION'S BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS OUTSOURCING IN THE GERMAN CHEMICAL AND METAL SECTOR

Over the last decade, the role of trade unions in segmented labour markets has been a relevant and strongly debated topic in the literature. On the one hand, the dualisation literature is portraying trade unions' behaviour in Coordinated Market Economies (CMEs) as segmentalist: Confronted with employers' pressures for cost reduction and increased flexibility, unions in core sectors are allowing for segmentation to take place (through outsourcing and the use of atypical forms of employment) in order to protect their members, which are overwhelmingly represented among core workers. On the other, the power resource approach is arguing that segmentation derives from the weakness of employees' representatives which are no longer able to oppose employers' segmentation strategies. This paper will contribute to this debate through a case-study analysis of trade unions' behaviour towards outsourcing in the German chemical and metal sector. We will show that trade unions have adopted both inclusive and exclusive strategies towards peripheral employees depending on three main factors: the peculiar trade unions' identity characterising the two sectors, how outsourcing processes impact on the core workforce and how they impact on the union's organisational interests

Systems for Conflict Resolution in Comparative Perspective

A cornerstone of industrial relations theory is the idea that the potential for conflict is inherent in the employment relationship. Across countries, forms of workplace conflict and methods of conflict resolution take a range of different forms. Yet aside from attempts to understand cross-national variation in strikes, little research has examined systemic differences in the manifestation and management of workplace conflict. The authors seek to fill this void by analyzing through a comparative lens practices for addressing employment-related conflict in four countries: Germany, the United States, Italy, and Australia. In contrast to the unidimensional varieties of capitalism approach, they analyze workplace conflict resolution systems across two dimensions: collective-individual and regulated-voluntarist. The analysis also emphasizes the importance of within-country variation and interactions between different conflict resolution subsystems

Clinical and Virological Features and Course of Acute Hepatitis B (AHB) in Italy

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Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

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Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Glomerular hyperfiltration predicts the development of microalbuminuria in stage 1 hypertension: The HARVEST

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Piramidazione di loci di resistenza a peronospora e oidio mediante un processo ottimizzato di selezione assistita da marcatori molecolari

Oggi la transizione verso un'agricoltura sostenibile è di primaria importanza per la comunità nazionale ed internazionale. Una strategia promettente per ridurre l'uso di sostanze chimiche è rappresentata dall’incrocio tra varietà con elevato tenore organolettico e varietà resistenti a stress biotici. L'allevamento tradizionale di piante legnose è tuttavia estremamente impegnativo a causa di alcune limitazioni: il lungo ciclo riproduttivo e le grandi dimensioni delle piante rendono il periodo di valutazione molto lungo e costoso. Nell'ultimo decennio l'impiego della selezione assistita da marcatori molecolari (MAS) ha cambiato il paradigma, migliorando l'efficienza delle fasi di screening nel periodo iniziale e riducendo il numero di piantine che raggiungono il campo aperto. Con queste consapevolezza e visione, nel 2010 è iniziato il programma di miglioramento genetico per la resistenza allo stress biotico della vite presso la Fondazione Edmund Mach. Dopo una prima fase di esplorazione di un pool genetico vario e complesso di caratteri/loci di resistenza (R) a peronospora e oidio, è stato selezionato come donatore un gruppo di accessioni. Quindi, attraverso la selezione assistita dei parentali (MAPS), vari genotipi con loci piramidati hanno raggiunto il campo aperto e sono stati utilizzati per scopi di riproduzione. Successivamente, è stata condotta l'ottimizzazione dei protocolli di fenotipizzazione e genotipizzazione per la selezione dei semenzali assistita da marcatori (MASS) altamente efficiente. Sono stati sviluppati due flussi di lavoro di fenotipizzazione per selezionare prima preferenzialmente le resistenze a peronospora o oidio nel germoplasma riproduttivo, combinate possibilmente con la seconda resistenza. Alla fine, i costi di genotipizzazione sono stati ridotti di oltre un quarto (cinque loci selezionati in media per individuo). Nel 2018 circa 650 individui di progenie sono stati analizzati e caratterizzati a nove loci R, rivelando un massimo di sette loci combinati in totale di cui quattro piramidati contro la stessa malattia. Il processo ottimizzato è stato applicato in più di 20 popolazioni segreganti e i diversi assetti R-loci rilevati hanno permesso di svelare effetti sia inter-popolazione che intra-popolazione: il primo riguarda l'effetto di un diverso background genetico sulla stessa risorsa di R-loci, mentre il secondo rappresenta l'impatto di diversi assetti R-loci all'interno della stessa popolazione. Grazie a questi risultati, a partire dal 2019 è stato stabilito un processo di MAS forward ̶ senza screening fenotipico ̶ sulle progenie derivate da quelle linee parentali con un comportamento noto all'interno del programma di miglioramento genetico della FEM